Kamala Harris’ historic campaign, which began with joy and once seemed destined for an inevitable victory, is now haunted by doubt.
There are still three weeks until the presidential elections, but post-mortem analyzes have already begun. One of the most prominent diagnoses came last Thursday from former President Barack Obama.
During a campaign stop in Pittsburgh, with its mix of working-class jobs and careers in tech and medicine, Obama addressed one of the biggest warning signs for Democrats: an enthusiasm gap, especially among black men.
Donald Trump, who has run for the same office almost non-stop since 2015, still has a base of energetic voters so loyal that they would swim through Pittsburgh’s icy three rivers in January to get to the polls if necessary to go. But Harris, who has been a presidential candidate for less than three months, already has an enthusiasm problem? Obama is right to be concerned – especially in Pennsylvania.
The state north of Maryland was the cornerstone of Trump’s 2016 victory, and four years later it sent Joe Biden to the White House. One of the reasons Trump won eight years ago is because Clinton couldn’t hold on to the Obama coalition of black, Latino and young voters. She still won them overall, but Trump won a larger share than Obama’s Republican challengers in 2008 and 2012. By tapping into the Democratic base and expanding the rural vote, Trump won Pennsylvania by just over 44,000 votes , or 1%.
Here are four more warning signs for Democrats:
Trump has his largest lead in the polls in eight years
This year marks the first time that polls show Trump ahead in the presidential election in October. Granted, his lead is about one point in the top states — well within the margin of error — but Democrats have reason to worry. Clinton had a lead of about ten points at this stage of the 2016 election, and she still lost. Biden was ahead by about seven points at the same time in 2020 and he won.
Trump leads by about one point in every major battleground state except Wisconsin, where he trails by less than one point.
Voters have a more favorable view of Trump than in 2016 and 2020
The Democrats and the Never Trumpers like to point to his litany of lies, the January 6 insurrection, the criminal charges against him and a series of horrible things he has said in an attempt to disqualify him and question why anyone would like him to vote.
But despite all these points, voters in Pennsylvania – which has the largest share of electors (19) of any state – now have a more favorable view of him than in the previous two elections. His preference assessment is still negative, but less negative than it was. In September 2016, Trump’s net favorable rating was -28. In September 2020 it was -17. And last month it was -9. Harris is at -3, according to the Franklin & Marshall Poll in Pennsylvania.
Also worrying for Democrats, Trump’s presidential job approval rating in September 2020 was -22. According to the same poll, Biden’s is currently -28.
Democrats are swinging in the Senate races
If Democrats lose their majority in the Senate, it won’t be a big surprise. The map favored the Republicans before the campaign began. There are close races in both the battleground states, red states and blue states. Even reliably blue Maryland has a competitive race, though the state is still leaning Democratic, according to most political analysts.
Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio and Wisconsin are struggling, and independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who caucuses with Democrats, is on track to lose his seat.
Harris struggles to define herself
Democrats are repeating the same mistakes against Trump. They tiptoe around too many issues, cower and desperately try not to offend any voting group, while Trump has no problem offending anyone.
While many voters have said he is crazy and boorish, they seem to realize he is true to himself. Perhaps Biden’s authenticity helped him defeat Trump, along with the electorate’s disapproval of the Republican former president’s handling of COVID. Harris, like Clinton in 2016, struggles to appear authentic.
She has changed her mind on several points. She has waited too long to do media interviews and often does them with friendly hosts who throw more softballs than fastballs. (Trump also avoids most media interviews).
A bigger problem is that she does not draw enough contrasts with Trump. For the majority of voters, the economy is the most important issue. Why doesn’t Harris talk about that every day? Why doesn’t she point out that she’s standing up for working-class voters, while Trump is campaigning with Elon Musk, the richest man in the world with a net worth of $241 billion?
She also doesn’t provide enough of a contrast to Biden, which is a challenge because she is his vice president. She is also the Democratic nominee for president, only because Biden dropped out of the race. But one of her worst moments of the campaign came during an appearance on “The View” earlier this month. When asked what she would have done differently than Biden, she said: “Not anything that comes to mind.”
That answer may not be a problem for the hosts of “The View,” its supporters or most people along the Beltway. But for average voters, who don’t follow political or economic news, this is a warning sign. They don’t pay attention to politics every day. They may not know how or why inflation occurs. They just know that their cost of living is higher, and they tend to blame the sitting president for that.
If Harris wants to win, she will have to do more than appeal to unenthusiastic black men. She will have to convince all voters why she is different and a better choice than Trump – and Biden.
Candy Woodall is an opinion editor at The Baltimore Sun. She wants to read your thoughts on the presidential race and can be reached at cwoodall@baltsun.com.
