After a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 crimes last week, Republicans rallied behind the former president, insisting the verdict would only damage Joe Biden’s standing in the presidential election.
But some new polling data is casting doubt on that argument, as a small but crucial number of Americans in key voting blocs appear to be moving toward Biden in the aftermath of the verdict.
Trump’s lead over the president has narrowed from three points to one point, according to a post-verdict analysis of nearly 2,000 interviews with voters who previously participated in New York Times/Siena College surveys. That shift may seem insignificant, but it could be decisive in a close presidential election, as expected this year. In 2020, only 44,000 votes in three battleground states prevented a tie in the electoral college.
Perhaps more worrying for Trump are the specific areas where he appears to be losing support. According to the Times analysis, uncommitted Democratic-leaning voters and those who dislike both Trump and Biden were more likely to say the verdict made them reconsider their options in the election.
Both voting groups have played an important role in improving Trump’s election performance in recent months. Of those who voted for Biden in 2020 and previously indicated they would support Trump this year, about a quarter said they would now support the incumbent president. Voters who dislike both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” are considered particularly influential this year, and the Times analysis found that among those voters, Trump has more than a fifth of the support he had before his verdict lost.
Related: ‘I’d like to see him go to jail’: Voters react to guilty verdict in Trump trial
Polling data collected after Trump’s conviction is still somewhat limited, but at least one other post-verdict survey corroborated the Times’ findings. Republican firm Echelon Insights conducted a survey showing Biden with a two-point lead over Trump among recontacted voters, while answers from those same respondents indicated a tie between the two candidates before the jury delivered its verdict.
But other warning signs remain for Biden, especially in the battlegrounds he will need to win to secure re-election. A Quinnipiac University poll of voters in Georgia, which Biden won by 0.2 points in 2020, showed Trump with a five-point lead in a head-to-head matchup against the incumbent president, although that result was within the survey’s margin of error lay. . When other candidates, including independent Robert F Kennedy, were added to the list of options, Trump’s lead grew to six points, which was outside the margin of error.
Even as the survey showed Biden trailing in Georgia, the poll also found that 50% of voters in the battleground state agreed with the verdict in the Manhattan case, underscoring the mixed feelings caused by the conviction from Trump.
A Times Opinion focus group of eleven undecided voters, held just hours after the verdict was announced last week, reflected a range of views on the outcome of the case, with some participants saying they were increasingly leaning towards supporting Kennedy . At least one person said the verdict made him less likely to vote for Biden, arguing that Trump’s conviction made Biden look “unfriendly.” Another voter said Biden “has his dirty hands on this,” an apparent reference to Trump’s baseless claims of political persecution.
“I guess I thought Joe Biden was above,” said John, a 58-year-old white customer relations executive from Pennsylvania.
And yet, other focus group participants indicated that the verdict had changed their opinion of Trump for the worse, echoing the findings of the Times analysis. A voter named Ben, a 42-year-old white college counselor from Texas, suggested he was leaning toward Biden because Trump’s conviction proved his incompetence.
“What’s so bad about bribing Stormy Daniels? But I want a president who can cover up a $130,000 bribe to Daniels,” Ben said. “If he can’t get that done, I don’t trust him with the nuclear football. It seems so easy for him to screw it up. I’m leaning a little towards Biden now.”
With five months to go until Election Day, voters still have time to think — and reconsider — their views on Trump’s conviction.
