For a man who spent years in prison and who claimed he fought a weaponized legal system aimed at keeping him from returning to the White House, Donald Trump has many reasons to celebrate.
Trump, who has spent years battling legal challenges on numerous fronts, has repeatedly won battles in criminal and civil suits that have shielded him from its potential consequences for the foreseeable future.
His lawyers’ strategy — delay, delay, delay, through appeal after appeal — has allowed Trump to charge toward Election Day without encountering practical and political obstacles that would derail any normal candidate.
Many expected Trump to spend much of 2024 in a series of courtrooms, but instead he has campaigned across the country, rally after rally.
Yes, Trump was found guilty of 34 charges in his hush money trial in Manhattan, a misdemeanor charge with a maximum penalty of four years behind bars. And yes, Trump is being sued in Washington DC federal court for his alleged attempts to undermine the 2020 election, as well as for election interference in Georgia.
But Judge Juan Merchan postponed sentencing in the hush money case until November 26 “to avoid any appearance – however unfounded – that the proceedings have influenced or are attempting to influence the approaching presidential elections in which the defendant is a candidate.” Merchan will also not issue his immunity decision until November 12.
It’s also unclear whether the public will see any potential evidence in special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol case before Election Day. Documents containing a “substantial amount of sensitive material” were filed under seal last Thursday, but Judge Tanya Chutkan has discretion over their release.
The election interference case in Georgia is on hold pending an appeal, and Smith is fighting to revive Florida’s classified documents process after its dismissal in July. The hundreds of millions in financial penalties Trump faces for civil fraud and defamation are also on hold pending appeal.
Politicians on both sides of the aisle told the Guardian that Trump’s legal troubles are now unlikely to sway voters one way or another unless something pivotal happens before November 5.
“It’s become a battle of personalities between the former president and the vice president,” said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, and Trump has “smartly” shifted the discourse toward the problems he attributes to Democratic rival Kamala Harris, such as US border security.
“He is trying to make her guilty, instead of her having the opportunity to make him guilty of what he was convicted of in the criminal trial and for which he is liable.”
Without something decisive happening — like a conviction — Democrats can’t rely on that much. “A campaign is defined by what’s on the air, right? There are no commercials to talk about [this] because it hasn’t happened yet,” he said.
“I think people’s opinions about Donald Trump and his legal problems are already ingrained. No one thinks he’s a choir boy, but most Americans view these lawsuits as frivolous and politically motivated,” said Republican strategist TW Arrighi.
“This election will come down to a small number of people in a handful of states who don’t like Trump’s personality but really hate Harris’ litany of far-left policy positions that she’s currently trying to run away from,” he said. . “They thought their lives were better during the Trump years, but hated the noise. Yet they fear Harris will shift the country too far to the left and make matters worse, especially when it comes to immigration and the economy.”
“Whoever carries more weight in the minds of these swing voters when they enter the voting booth will determine how they vote.”
Conservative New York State Chairman Gerard Kassar, who came to court one day to support Trump in his case in Manhattan, said legal action could work against both sides.
“I think these legal actions caused certain people who had problems with him to become more involved,” Kassar said, but he also thinks “that certain people who were more in neutral territory [or] concluded that this was an overreach of federal law enforcement authorities intended to influence the outcome.”
Longtime lawyers expressed skepticism that Trump would face any meaningful consequences, at least in the short term. The delaying tactic worked.
“I fully expect he will be sentenced to probation if Harris wins, or possibly have the case dismissed if he wins,” said Neama Rahmani, president of West Coast Trial Lawyers and a former federal prosecutor.
“Trump’s legal team has done a masterful job of delaying the violation and moving forward — litigating and appealing everything,” Rahmani said. “His delay is his best defense.”
“I’m not saying this is a just outcome and a fair result, but if you look at the legal approach and its effectiveness, imagine a coach of a football or basketball team winning even though they have lesser talents. “
Ron Kuby, a veteran criminal defense attorney with a focus on civil rights, said the delay strategy did not achieve all its goals in Trump’s case in New York state, but was effective.
“He was convicted of 34 crimes in a trial that started pretty much at the scheduled time, so that didn’t work,” Kuby said. “Sentencing will be postponed until after the election, but even if the judge gives him jail time, thanks to New York’s liberal bail laws — which Trump apparently now supports — there’s no way he’ll go to jail until all his appeals are resolved . exhausted.”
Kuby noted that delays were not unusual by any means and that effective attorneys aggressively pursue them.
“A mistake is to think that there was a certain deadline that the legal system had imposed. There was none,” he said. “There were a lot of people who wanted to resolve this somehow before the election, but that’s a political deadline and not a legal deadline, and lawyers, if you have a client who is not in jail awaiting trial, hinder and delay. your best friends.”
“Good lawyers have great expertise in the field of postponement. My clients need to be dragged kicking and screaming to court,” Kuby continued, adding, “Every day your client gets out of jail and doesn’t stand before a jury is a day they are presumed innocent.”
“Legally, he has been partially successful,” Kuby said. “Politically, he has been completely successful.”
