DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Shifting tectonic plates are sending tremors of uncertainty from Beijing to Brussels as newly elected President Donald Trump prepares to take office. The fallout could cause U.S. priorities to diverge from those of its closest European allies in ways unseen in decades.
The new administration is likely to pressure European leaders to take a tougher stance against China, which it sees as America’s main enemy, but their countries are economically intertwined with both powers and their interests do not always align those of Washington, various European officials and diplomats. told NBC News. If Trump were to follow through on his promise to impose tariffs on both Europe and China, these would likely diverge even further.
There is also uncertainty across the continent about what the new White House will mean for the war in Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said he could end the conflict in a day, and despite Russian claims to the contrary, that boast has led to fears he will push for huge concessions in favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Trump’s impact is panic,” a European Union official told NBC News on Sunday. “They will have to make a decision and take a stand.”
But unity seems elusive.
Several European leaders criticized German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after he called Putin last week in an attempt to convince him to negotiate, becoming the first sitting leader of a major Western country to speak to him since late 2022.
President-elect Donald Trump addresses his supporters on the evening of his election victory.
Among them is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said this was “exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time” as he tries to ease his international isolation.
“Europe is in panic over all this,” the EU official added. “People had said privately, ‘We’ll see what we do with Ukraine, we’ll see what we do with China.’ But now the world has been turned upside down and they don’t know what to do yet.”
Eyes on Beijing
There are signs that European countries could decide the answer is to get closer to China, potentially causing a rift with the US
During his first administration, Trump was hyper-focused on China, and since then he has maintained his tough stance on the country, which both the US and Europe view as an economic competitor and systemic rival, even as they view the country as one of their biggest trading partners. partners.
Days before the U.S. presidential election, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., wrote in The Economist that the next president must quickly end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and “finally shift strategic focus focusing on where it should be: countering the greater threat of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Xi in Kazan, Russia, last month.
Relations between Europe and China have deteriorated in recent years over trade, human rights, Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the status of Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its territory.
They deteriorated further after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with some European leaders suggesting Beijing would have to lean harder on Moscow to end the conflict.
Still, four European diplomats and officials from key Western capitals, who asked not to be named to speak freely, said their countries are not looking for a full-scale confrontation with China.
“We do not want to be involved in the foreign policy towards China that the new US administration will be involved in,” said one of the senior European officials. “America is our friend and ally. But we have our own foreign policy and our own economic position vis-à-vis China.”
At the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, Keir Starmer became the first British prime minister since 2018 to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in person.
Starmer called for “consistent, lasting” ties between the two countries, while Xi said they have “huge potential for cooperation.” Although Starmer told reporters he had had a “frank” discussion with Xi on issues on which China and Britain disagree, he was criticized by British lawmakers for rejecting the prison sentences imposed this week on 45 pro-democracy activists. had not publicly condemned figures in the Chinese territory of China. Hong Kong, as well as the ongoing trial of pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai, a British citizen.
Xi also discussed the war in Ukraine and EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles during meetings with Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing last month.
In some ways, a second Trump term could be “good news” for Europe because, unlike President Joe Biden, he “wouldn’t care so much” about rallying U.S. allies against China, says Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies. at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“That will give Europeans more leeway in managing their relations with China,” Wu said Monday at an event organized by the University of Hong Kong’s Center on Contemporary China and the World.
He also noted that a series of European leaders and other political figures have already visited Beijing in recent months in an effort to strengthen ties.
Chinese officials have also suggested that this could be an opportunity for better relations with Europe.
“China supports Europe in playing a greater role in international affairs, but does not want it to take sides and provoke a bloc confrontation,” said Cao Lei, deputy head of China’s Foreign Ministry responsible for European affairs. South China Morning Post this month.
Russian threat
For many Europeans, it is Moscow, not Beijing, that poses an immediate threat. They say China could help pressure Russia over Ukraine as Xi loses patience with a war he did not expect would drag on for nearly three years.
A senior European diplomat said that while China has never explicitly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has helped contain Moscow in other ways.
“They have been strict with Russia about not using nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” the diplomat said.
China is also concerned about growing security ties between Russia and North Korea after the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in June, the diplomat added.
The US and others say the secretive communist state’s leader, Kim Jong Un, has sent thousands of troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine in exchange for technical help with its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“China does not want a more capable North Korean military,” the diplomat said. “So I would expect that this is one of those issues that we could seriously talk to the Chinese about.”
Another European diplomat said Moscow will be the wild card in the international effort to end the war in Ukraine.
“You see the need for it among the Ukrainians, you see the Europeans saying that we are not going to finance this huge and endless struggle,” they said. “It is more difficult to understand what it means for Putin.”
While Moscow has indicated it is open to talks, Russia’s upper hand on the battlefield may convince Putin that he can achieve more by fighting than by acquiescing. But the costs are weighing heavily on European governments, which have provided Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military and other aid.
“The ‘pay, pay, pay’ strategy did not work,” the EU official said. “Europe now just wants to stop the war.”
But it is also desperate to avoid any hint of surrender.
“The EU continues to say that Ukraine will negotiate when Ukraine wants to negotiate,” said another European official, “and that the EU will support Ukraine to the end.”
Keir Simmons reported from Dubai and Jennifer Jett from Hong Kong.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
