Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has done something no political opponent could: put an end date to his time at the helm of the Republican Party.
Well, sort of.
Trump single-handedly remade the Republican Party in his own image, not only becoming the undisputed leader but also rewiring what the Grand Old Party stands for. After he burst onto the scene in 2015, former party heavyweights who didn’t adhere to the new MAGA ethos were relegated to irrelevance or became the subject of intense lines of attack from Trump and his supporters.
But the fact is that the Constitution prohibits him from running for president again after a second term. And with Trump unable to run again, the process of figuring out who will lead the next party has already begun, with a series of ambitious and eager Republicans eyeing the opportunity for years — and a fight that will be shaped by the now two-term chairman.
A dozen Republican elected officials, fundraisers and advisers said in interviews that at least in the short term, it doesn’t matter whether Trump can run for office again. He will still cast an unshakable shadow over the party, a shadow that will influence who can ascend, who will descend, and whether the party will even recover to resemble its pre-Trump state or continue on a path that is much more focused on new policy fascinations such as isolationism. culture war-inspired fights and tariff-oriented economic policies.
“He will keep the party as long as he is alive,” said a longtime Republican official who, like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to speak freely about what might happen next for the party.
“Trump won’t run again,” said another. “But that doesn’t mean he won’t be a big presence. He will enjoy his role as kingmaker and everyone who sucks him in.”
A long-serving Republican official said: “Never Trump Republicans are gone; they are all Democrats now. The down-and-out Republicans will be firmly in the new Republican Party. And the Reagan Democrats and union workers are now the base of the Republican Party.”
With Trump’s victory, there is a sense, driven in part by members of the Trump family, that newly elected Vice President JD Vance will now become the natural heir to the MAGA and Trump legacy. It’s not something Trump himself talked about in the final weeks of the campaign — but it was the implicit signal he sent by his selection of Vance as his running mate just two days after a would-be assassin killed him in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July had attacked. .
And Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., a major ally of Vance, has directly shaped Vance’s role in this way.
“We get four more years of Trump and then eight more years of JD Vance!” said Trump Jr. last week while campaigning for Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno.
Vance will now sit alongside Trump in the White House for the next four years, giving him dual opportunities to build or repair relationships with the professional political class while also leaning on a reputation as an outsider that the Trump base enjoys. holds.
“JD has made an impression. He had a shaky start, but he has steadied himself,” said one veteran Republican operative. “The professional class in DC despises him, yet that is one of his best sales pitches.”
Beyond Vance, a long list of ambitious Republicans believe they have the inside track to lead the Republican Party in a post-Trump landscape.
“A Trump victory means [the 2028] The field will develop more slowly,” said one longtime Republican aide. “Everyone will be waiting to see how Vance’s relationship with Trump goes and how he performs.”
“The 2026 midterm elections will be critical,” the person added.
As that slow burn plays out, a field to succeed Trump after 12 years at the top of the Republican Party could include up to a dozen Republican heavyweights, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, the governor of Georgia. Brian Kemp, former Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley (who was Trump’s last primary opponent in 2024), Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, and probably a handful of others .
“It will have to be someone with enough Trump street cred, but also dynamic communicators who have mastered retail politics and can raise a lot of money,” said a Republican official from the swing state.
There are differing opinions on who that person might be as the far-too-early view of what a post-Trump Republican presidential candidate might look like takes shape.
“Trump is the most transformative political figure since Ronald Reagan. … I truly believe he has permanently transformed the Republican Party and the overall national political landscape,” said a Republican lobbyist and fundraiser who has raised money for Trump. “Looking to 2028, the two leading prospects would of course be J.D. Vance as the sitting vice president and Governor Ron DeSantis as the most successful Republican governor in modern history.”
DeSantis, who is term-limited in Florida, was at one point seen as a front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. He raised record amounts of political money for a governor and pushed policies in Florida that opened new fronts in the culture wars for conservatives, and he competed with and sometimes defeated Trump in many polls early in the cycle.
But DeSantis’ stock fell precipitously during a primary campaign against Trump, and his campaign and its super PACs spent heavily only to get out after Iowa, the Republican party’s first nominating contest. That precedent, others said, could be his undoing as he considers a future run.
“Why would anyone give him money after 2024?” asked a Republican member of Congress. “He spent so much money, made so many promises and went all out. I’m not sure how seriously I would consider him at this point.
There are also arguments for several candidates who have been rising stars in Republican Party politics, even if they are not well known among the broader voting base.
“Huckabee Sanders has bona fides in the Trump world, is a campaign rock star, and with a party on the hunt for women — and one of the best campaigns in the party — she will begin her second term as a popular governor.” , said a spokesperson. said a longtime Republican Party lobbyist and consultant. “And she will only be 46.”
That person predicted a “way too early” Vance-Huckabee Sanders GOP 2028 ticket.
Ramaswamy, an outspoken Trump supporter and campaign surrogate, could also get a boost in a scenario where he replaces Vance as senator from Ohio: “If he gets that spot, he will have a huge platform to amplify his message that the Trump base clearly loves it,” said a former adviser to Ramaswamy.
With Trump now having four years left in the White House, it is extremely unlikely that the party will make any major policy or political changes. But there are also a handful of potential candidates who have done enough to appeal to the Trump base but who are broadly seen as more traditional Republicans.
That bill fits Youngkin, who was seen by some “Never Trump” Republicans earlier in the 2024 election cycle as a long-term hope to move the party past Trump. However, he has since become a reliable Trump supporter and was at one point considered a running mate.
Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, also fits that bill.
She waged a blistering primary campaign against Trump and said she would not kiss the ring after becoming a candidate for the anti-Trump Republicans in the primaries. She then said she would support and vote for Trump, even though her support in public speeches was sometimes lukewarm.
“I know it’s loud out there,” Haley said last month at a rally near Pittsburgh for Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate candidate. “If I tell you to take the emotion out of it and focus on the policy, Dave McCormick can’t win if we don’t elect Donald Trump first.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
