If you’re the kind of person who thinks betting has a story to tell leading up to a major title fight, then UFC 302 is an interesting case to follow.
After UFC president Dana White announced that Islam Makhachev would defend his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier this Saturday night in Newark, New Jersey, the initial reaction from oddsmakers was measured, yet very clear. Poirier opened as an underdog at around +350, with champion Makhachev the favorite at -470.
Translation: The champion will likely remain the champion, no matter how much Poirier’s legion of fans may wish it were otherwise.
But didn’t Poirier come into his last fight as an underdog? And didn’t he knock out young whippersnapper Benoit Saint-Denis before coldly telling us he hoped we were smart enough to bet on him? Certainly, Poirier’s many fans could shift that line in his favor when they jumped at the chance to get long shots at one of MMA’s most beloved figures.
Yet here we are at the start of UFC 302 fight week and the opposite has happened. Makhachev, as of this writing, is now a -650 favorite at BetMGM. And Poirier? He is currently almost 5-1 ahead. Those are oddsmakers saying that even with a juicy underdog line on a fan favorite, not enough fish are biting.
The good news for Poirier is that this matchup has officially entered shock-the-world territory. Do you want that frozen moment at the end of your career? The one where you win the unwinnable battle and (literally) triumph over long odds? Then go out and beat Makhachev for the UFC title. Easier said than done of course. But it’s not like Poirier hasn’t surprised us before…
Here’s a look at what else the pay-per-view portion of UFC 302 has to offer this Saturday:
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Who are they: Brown was a potential find for the UFC about eight years ago, and ever since it feels like we’ve been waiting for him to fulfill the full potential of his frame as a 6-foot-1 welterweight. Zaleski is one of those guys who has fought so many household names that it’s easy to forget that he actually has wins over Sean Strickland and Benoit Saint-Denis.
Why it matters: Neither of these guys have set the world on fire lately and neither stands at 170 pounds. This could be one of those battles between also veterans to see who else has a future in him. It could also be that UFC matchmakers simply couldn’t believe these two hadn’t already fought and decided to straighten out the oversight.
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov
Who are they: Almeida is a Brazilian heavyweight with a suffocating ground game, which isn’t always as fun to watch as it should be. Romanov is an Eastern European big man who seemed to be on his way to the top until he recently ran into a higher-ranked competitor and came away with two consecutive defeats.
Why it matters: Heavyweight feels like a wide open division these days, and both guys have promise lurking beneath the surface. Almeida seemed to have a brighter future until he was knocked out by Curtis Blaydes for his first UFC loss in March. This is the kind of rebound battle he needs to win to prove that maybe he’s still who we thought he was.
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Who are they: Holland is one of those MMA weirdsmobiles who always brings some kind of fun, even when it doesn’t necessarily benefit him. Oleksiejczuk is a former light heavyweight with finishing power but not much consistency.
Why it matters: Holland is clinging to the fringes of the middleweight rankings after two consecutive defeats, including losing the battle to the lanky, unconventional strikers in a one-sided bout against Michael “Venom” Page in March. Oleksiejczuk is also coming off a loss in March and has more than two wins in a row since joining the UFC. Normally this is the kind of fight that Netherlands wins and Oleksiejczuk loses. But are these normal times?
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Who are they: Strickland had a cup of coffee with the middleweight belt after pulling off one of the biggest upsets last year, only to lose it to Dricus du Plessis in his first title defense. Costa is the biggest Silly Little Guy™ in MMA, to the point where you never know when he’s just messing around and when he’s not – until he knocks you upside the head.
Why it matters: Strickland has made himself a lightning rod in the culture war, increasing his visibility but also his polarity. Realistically, he only needs to win one relevant fight to get back into the mix for a middleweight title, and Costa should be the kind of opponent he could carefully beat on his way to a decision victory. At the other end, Costa looked good even in defeat to Robert Whittaker last time out. He has the one-shot power that Strickland lacks. And if he wins a knockout here, he might seem like an interesting candidate for a title shot in a way that’s just weird enough to be fun.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Who are they: Makhachev is the UFC lightweight champion who, despite holding the title for almost two years, has yet to defend it against a true lightweight. Poirier is a fan favorite who, at age 35, gets his final chance to add “undisputed UFC champion” to his resume.
Why it matters: Title fights are always important, but this one has compelling stories on both sides. Makhachev has this air of authority as a champion after dominating Charles Oliveira to claim the title. However, he could still use some title fight wins over household names at lightweight, and Poirier is the kind of opponent who draws a lot of attention in every fight. That’s a big opportunity for a champion who wants to become a star. Poirier, on the other hand, should know that there probably won’t be any last-minute title fight offers after this. This is it. This is his chance to put the whole story in a different light. And like all great underdog stories, it’s hard to imagine on paper how he could beat Makhachev.
