On September 14, the UFC brings the spectacle to Sphere in Las Vegas for a special themed pay-per-view event that could very well be the top prize for a memorable show.
UFC 306, also known as “Riyadh Season Noche UFC,” is being billed as a card celebrating Mexican Independence. The Riyadh portion is there to indicate that it is sponsored by Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, since what makes more sense than a Mexican Independence Day event… paid for by Saudi Arabia… taking place in Las Vegas.
The betting odds have changed noticeably heading into UFC 306, with UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and challenger Merab Dvalishvili now effectively tied. O’Malley entered this fight as the underdog despite being the reigning champion, but as money has poured in on the popular 135-pounder, the odds have narrowed.
Below you will find a full breakdown of the UFC 306 betting odds, starting with the main event:
Sean O’Malley (-110) vs Merab Dvalishvili (-110)
O’Malley’s success continues to astonish those who see the colorful hair and lean frame and refuse to believe that this man can really fight that well. Dvalishvili presents a difficult stylistic matchup for him, as he is primarily a wrestler who has had great success harnessing his bottomless cardio and frenetic pace.
O’Malley will want to keep this up, and if he can stop a few takedown attempts early, his chances of victory should increase significantly. Dvalishvili has hinted that he might try to stay on his feet and slam the champion, but that’s likely just playing games, as his boxing game has some serious holes when used for anything other than setting up a takedown.
Alexa Grasso (-120) vs Valentina Shevchenko (+100)
Finally, a trilogy fight to hopefully settle things once and for all, allowing the women’s flyweight division to finally move on to other business. Grasso pulled off a huge upset as a huge underdog in the first fight, then fought the former champion to a draw in the rematch. Now, Grasso looks to prove she truly deserves that belt, while Shevchenko looks to capitalize on what could be her last best chance to get it back.
Shevchenko looked like the better kickboxer in this pairing, but she’s also shown some signs of slowing down at this stage of her career. Grasso lacks refinement, but she makes up for it with a dangerous submission game and a bend-but-don’t-break approach to defense. Grasso isn’t giving up that title anytime soon, and Shevchenko looks less intimidating overall now that her championship aura is gone.
Brian Ortega (+150) vs. Diego Lopes (-185)
Ortega has had a tough road to get here, but lately fans seem to believe he’s not done yet. His jiu-jitsu is always a threat, and when he’s allowed to do his thing, he’s one of the best in the division.
Lopes has been consistently above average for the past year or so, suggesting that it may be time to finally take him seriously. He has power on his feet and seems to be gaining confidence with each fight, which in turn translates into aggression and pressure forward.
Daniel Zellhuber (-225) vs Esteban Ribovics (+185)
This one is on the main card because of the rivalry between Mexico (Zellhuber) and Argentina (Ribovics). Both are young fighters still finding their feet in the UFC, but Zellhuber probably has the upper hand in experience and quality of competition. Together, they seem like a recipe for a three-round war that will force anyone to up their game if they want that Fight of the Night bonus.
Ronaldo Rodriguez (-165) vs Ode Osbourne (+140)
Rodriguez hasn’t lost a fight since his failed appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020. It’s been a long road from there to getting back on the UFC’s radar, but his victory at a UFC Fight Night event earlier this year was his sixth straight win. By comparison, Osbourne has been in the UFC for five years and has yet to truly distinguish himself. He’s on a two-fight losing streak and is likely fighting for his job against a Mexican fighter who doesn’t exactly seem like someone the UFC would have brought here to lose on the Mexican Independence card.
