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According to a military expert, Ukraine was able to fly surprisingly far and unhindered into Russia.
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George Barros told BI that Russian air defenses are under pressure for several reasons.
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Ukraine has destroyed a number of Russian systems and is targeting more, putting pressure on Russian resources.
Ukraine was able to strike unusually deep into Russia because Russian air defenses were stretched, a war expert told Business Insider.
George Barros, a Russia expert for the U.S. Institute for the Study of War, said many Ukrainian drones were able to penetrate beyond the point where Russian air defenses should be able to stop them.
“We have seen several times that the Ukrainians have penetrated Russian air defenses and then deployed aircraft that can fly as deep into Russia as they are doing now,” he said.
“The Russian air defenses could have taken them out very easily.”
Russia’s air defenses are a formidable adversary for Ukraine as it resists invasion. They have shot down Ukrainian fighter jets and missiles, largely blocking Ukraine from Russian airspace.
Ukraine’s defense has also proven its worth by holding off the much larger Russian air force. Air warfare experts have hailed this as a remarkable achievement, given Ukraine’s disadvantaged position in the air.
This has created a situation of mutual airstrikes, with both sides largely having to limit themselves to using their own aircraft on their own territory.
But Barros said Russia’s defenses have been “tested,” opening up new opportunities for Ukraine.
He said Russia “forgot to protect the territories” that are not directly adjacent to Ukraine, and that Ukraine could then, starting in the spring of 2024, “in a very deliberate way” disable Russian defenses.
Many of Russia’s air defense systems have been damaged and destroyed by Ukraine, and Ukraine is now targeting defenses it couldn’t reach before. Russia needs to figure out how to protect them.
Barros said Russia “has deployed its air defense capabilities to protect the areas threatened from the air.”
If Ukraine gets through here, its troops could “enter territory inside Russia that is not sufficiently protected.”
He said one example was Ukraine attacking the Russian region of Tatarstan, 807 miles from the Ukrainian border. The April attack was carried out by what experts said appeared to be a light aircraft that had been modified to fly remotely.
“That incident was very demonstrative and an indication that the Russians probably have their air defenses positioned in such a way that they have good coverage in the immediate area around Ukraine. But outside of that, they don’t have it,” Barros said.
Ukraine recently received new permission from allies to strike inside Russia with donated weapons, meaning Russia has more locations to consider defending.
And Ukraine’s increasing drone attacks on Russian military and oil installations, sometimes hundreds of miles inside Russia, have also tested Russian capabilities, the ISW said this month.
According to the ISW, such attacks “continue to put pressure on the Russian air defense organization and force the Russian military command to prioritize the allocation of limited air defense resources to targets it considers to be of high value.”
Ukraine destroyed many Russian air defense systems, especially in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
The ISW reported last month that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian defense lines there could deter Russia from using Crimea as a military base.
While this breakthrough is good news for Ukraine, it is unlikely that it will by itself change the course of the war.
To achieve this, Ukraine would need to further weaken Russia’s defenses and take over more of its own defenses from allies, as its arsenal is larger than Russia’s.
Combined with a stronger air force – such as the Western F-16s that arrived in late July – the benefits could be even greater.
Many war experts have said that this war has largely become an air defense war, with both countries desperate to maintain their arsenals.
Read the original article on Business Insider
