Ukraine finally has the green light to strike inside Russia with American weapons – and the country may have already started doing so.
A senior Ukrainian official hinted on Monday that Kiev had hit a missile system in Russia using Western weapons, just days after many of Ukraine’s allies, including the United States, approved its limited use.
That followed months of pressure to ignore Kremlin threats and lift restrictions, which Ukraine said had hampered its defensive efforts. Even as President Vladimir Putin’s officials reiterated their dire warnings, Ukraine signaled that it may have fired its first shots into this new reality, leaving observers wondering what this could mean for the broader war.
A now-deleted message Monday on the Ukrainian deputy prime minister’s Telegram messaging app Iryna Vereshchuk showed a photo of what appears to be a burning military truck.
‘It burns well. This is a Russian S-300. On Russian territory. The first days after permission to use Western weapons on enemy territory,” her message said.
Vereshchuk did not provide details on where on Russian territory the missile system would have been hit and when. She also did not specify whether the weapons used in the attack were supplied by US NBC News. NBC News could not verify whether the photo it posted showed an S-300 missile system, which is used for air defense.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment from NBC News.
Some influential Russian military bloggers also abuzz on Monday over photos circulating online of a Russian S-300 system reportedly hit in the Belgorod border region. One of the photos matched Vereshchuk’s.
The Institute for the Study of War also suggested in its daily report on Monday that “Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast,” most likely with a High Mobility Artillery Missile System (HIMARS) on Saturday or Sunday. .
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin to Vereshchuk’s claim, but Putin warned last week that Europe’s NATO countries were playing with fire and risking a “global conflict” by allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia.
Since then, a number of Russian officials have reiterated these warnings, including threatening nuclear retaliation.
On Monday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned Washington against miscalculations that, he said, could have “fatal” consequences. “For unknown reasons, they underestimate the severity of a rejection they could receive,” Riabkov said, according to state news agency Ria.
But military analysts were not convinced by the Kremlin’s rhetorical ploy.
“Ukraine will undoubtedly show that they can do this now and that the S-300 is a legitimate military target,” Michael Clarke, visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London, told NBC News.
Moscow will likely try to find other non-military ways to get back at NATO countries, including sabotage, Clarke said.
“Nuclear response is still a diversion, although they will continue to talk about it to scare everyone,” he added.
After Russia’s sweeping advance into Kharkov’s northeastern border area last month, Kiev was desperate to find Russian targets just across the border to fuel the new attack, but was hampered by the reluctance of its Western supporters.
These concerns still seem to play a role in Washington’s thinking.
Biden’s easing of restrictions applies only to some U.S. weapons and only in the Kharkiv region, U.S. officials told NBC News last week.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday the administration would hold “discussions” with Kiev about further easing restrictions, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested the change in US policy was still not enough.
Still, it could help Ukraine deter the Russians from making further advances around Kharkiv, where their advance appears to have stalled.
Attacks on military targets on Russian territory, such as Vereshchuk’s, will make Ukraine’s defense “more proactive and resilient,” helping to stabilize the front lines, said Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government research group.
“The Kremlin is bluffing when it threatens nuclear weapons,” Bielieskov said, adding that breaking the nuclear taboo in response to such attacks would be difficult for the Kremlin to sell to a wider international audience.
“Therefore, we hope that this will become an additional incentive to lift restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which would be very useful for attacks on Russian airfields in the border region.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
