The news
Ukraine claimed full control of a Russian city, the first success of a surprise offensive on Moscow’s territory.
Kiev has not yet disclosed what war aims the invasion of Russia has, but analysts have suggested that Ukraine wants to use the territorial gains as a bargaining chip to regain its own country.
SIGNALS
Sudzha could be a strategic conquest for Ukraine
Located in the Kursk region—the area targeted in Kiev’s surprise attack—Sudzha marks a strategic conquest for the Ukrainian military. The town is adjacent to a Russian gas terminal that supplies fuel to Europe. Independent Russian news outlet Meduza reported on August 9 that Sudzha serves as a strategic border control point for Russian gas. Control of the terminal could have financial implications for Russia, as nearly half of all Russian gas exports pass through the area.
Sudzha gas is supplied via Ukraine
Kiev and Moscow reached a five-year deal in 2019 that allowed natural gas to be exported from Russia to Europe via Ukraine. Kiev has said it does not plan to renew that contract, but Russian state media have reported that Moscow plans to continue exporting. Only one other pipeline is currently in operation: the Turkstream pipeline that runs through the Black Sea. The Sudzha pipeline is mutually beneficial for Moscow and Kiev: Russian state gas operator Gazprom makes money from the exports, and Kiev receives transit fees for the transport.
Invasion of Kursk could create ‘buffer zone’
Kiev has not yet fully explained why it launched its surprise invasion of Russia, but has said the aim is to create a “buffer zone” on the border. That would prevent some Russian troops from crossing into Ukraine, but it is still unclear how much territory Kiev plans to seize, or how long it plans to hold it. The push upends some Russian narratives about the war, The Guardian reported: Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, denounced the “continued lies coming from our side about the weakness of the Ukrainian army.”
