Over the past 24 hours, a slew of new polls have emerged nationally and in the swing states, particularly in Pennsylvania, where the election still hangs in the balance. These polls show three consistent storylines following last week’s presidential debate.
First, Democrats are polling better now than they have all year, thanks to the changing of the guard in the top spot of the presidential race.
Second, the battleground map looks more favorable to Democrats than before. This is especially true in the key Great Lakes swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And third, the presidential election remains tight, with most national and state polls coming in well within the margins of error. Whatever movement there has been, we are still a long way from one party or the other clearly opening up this race.
Stronger position for Democrats
First, let’s look at the latest national polls.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Vice President Kamala Harris with a 2-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 50% to 48%. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
For Harris, it was a slight improvement from last month’s Fox News poll, which had Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%.
And while that movement is also within the margin of error, the Fox poll showed Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden for most of the year when he topped the poll — with one exception (June 2024, before the Biden-Trump debate).
By comparison, a national New York Times/Siena College poll shows a tie among likely voters, 47% to 47%.
Still, that’s slightly better for Harris than what the outlet’s previous poll showed before the September debate — Trump 48%, Harris 47%, a change well within the margin of error. And it’s significantly better than where the poll had Biden in the race (he had Trump trailing by 1 to 6 points in 2024).
A more favorable battlefield map for Harris
Furthermore, all state polls show Harris doing better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Biden did over the past year, and especially after his debate against Trump in June.
In Michigan, a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters (like all the state polls cited here) gave Harris 50%, Trump 45%, and another 4% choosing someone else or undecided. A Marist poll gave Harris 52% and Trump 47%, with another 2% choosing something else or undecided.
In Pennsylvania, recent polls have ranged from a tie to a slight lead for Harris within the margin of error. The Quinnipiac University poll had Harris at 51%, Trump at 45%, with 5% choosing someone else or undecided. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll: Harris at 50%, Trump at 46%, don’t know/undecided 4%.
Marist and The Washington Post both showed a tie in Pennsylvania, with 49% in the first poll and 48% in the second poll. The rest were undecided or chose others.
And in Wisconsin, a number of new, margin-of-error polls showed Harris slightly better than Trump. AARP’s poll had Harris at 49%, Trump at 48%. Quinnipiac and Marist also showed 1-point Harris advantages, 49%-48% in Quinnipiac and 50%-49% in Marist.
Still a neck-and-neck race
Despite the Democrats’ stronger position, the polls show a neck-and-neck race.
That’s especially true in the polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Trump wins just one of those states, it could give him a leg up in the race for 270 electoral votes.
With poll results largely within the margin of error, the outcome of the 2024 race is far from clear.
After all, a shift of just 2 or 3 points would bring the race back to the level it was when Biden was still running.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
