Biden administration officials increasingly doubt that Israel and Hamas will reach a comprehensive ceasefire agreement under the current framework, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the negotiations.
If the deal is approved, it would unfold in three phases. Phase 1 pauses fighting for six weeks, allowing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the populated areas of Gaza, the release of hostages and the release of Palestinian prisoners. In the second phase, Israel and Hamas should try to negotiate an end to all hostilities and the release of the remaining hostages. The reconstruction of Gaza would take place in phase 3.
Israel and Hamas generally agree to the terms of Phase 1, but they disagree on how to officially end the war, said two of the officials, who like the others were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive negotiations to speak. Despite initial optimism about the deal, officials now believe these disagreements could upend the entire pact.
Phase 2 is “the bottleneck,” one of the officials said. “If Phase 1 could have been done in a vacuum, we would have done it by now.”
Hamas wants Israel to agree to a full withdrawal from Gaza. But Israeli officials have said they will not agree to a full withdrawal from the enclave until forces have completely dismantled Hamas – a goal that could take months if not years to achieve.
Hamas will not sign any part of the agreement – not even an initial ceasefire – until Israel agrees to its demands. In effect, Hamas has issued an all-or-nothing ultimatum that Israel is unlikely to approve. Neither side is showing signs of being willing to compromise, leaving Biden officials concerned the fighting will drag on for months longer.
“I think this will last at least until the end of 2024,” one of the officials said.
The National Security Council declined to comment. The Israeli embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“It has been agreed that further negotiations will take place after six weeks. At least then we would have had a ceasefire. At least we could have ended the suffering,” U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at a June 13 briefing. in.”
The situation has frustrated humanitarian groups, many of whom have been briefed by the government on the current state of negotiations and say they cannot effectively help Gazans without a pause in the fighting. A ceasefire is the only way to ensure that people on the ground have consistent access to food and much-needed medical care.
“The government is pushing hard for both Israel and Hamas to agree to the deal,” said a representative of one of the main aid groups working in Gaza. “But for now everything seems to be on hold.”
Since the start of the year, senior US officials have become increasingly skeptical about finding a way to end the war quickly. The aim was to get Israel and Hamas to – at the very least – agree to the initial six-week ceasefire, which could allow the release of dozens of hostages taken by the militant group during the attack on October 7 on Israel. provide better conditions for the distribution of aid in Gaza, thereby combating potential famine.
US officials calculated that even if Hamas and Israel reached an initial short-term ceasefire agreement, there was a good chance it would fail. Ceasefires in Gaza have been known to collapse during wartime and both sides are steadfast in their terms for ending the war under Phase 2 of the deal.
The Biden administration has been trying to broker an agreement between Israel and Hamas in recent weeks. Top officials have traveled to Israel and Doha in an attempt to find a solution. They now publicly blame Hamas for creating obstacles to peace.
Hamas has made changes to the three-phase agreement. Some of these amendments may be admissible, U.S. officials say. Some don’t.
Officials have not detailed what specifically Israel has agreed to and how Hamas plans to change the details of the deal currently on the table. But officials are not optimistic that the two sides will be able to resolve their differences anytime soon.
“No one is confident that this deal will develop in the way the administration had hoped,” said one of the officials, who was briefed by the White House on the status of ceasefire negotiations. “There are so many unknowns.”
