KANSAS CITY — U.S. coach Gregg Berhalter is a planner. In the months between USMNT games, when his work is less pressured and hands-on, his methodical mind obsesses over details and possibilities. He spent long summer days before the 2022 World Cup analyzing opponents in the group stage. He likely spent part of this spring mapping out game plans and scenarios for the 2024 Copa América.
But he could not have prepared for a decisive match in Group C with messy scenarios, a suspended star and an injured goalkeeper, plus an opponent whose influential coach will be missing and whose motivations are unclear.
The USMNT will take on Uruguay at Arrowhead Stadium here on Monday in a match full of mystery. And it probably — maybe, but not definitely — needs to win to reach the knockout rounds of the Copa América and avoid an unmitigated failure.
Scenarios for the US National Team’s Copa América in Group C
In a simultaneous group stage final, Panama will play Bolivia in Orlando. The simplified version of several dizzying scenarios is that the US must match Panama’s result.
After Thursday’s self-destructive 2-1 defeat against Los CanalerosThe US and Panama are tied on three points going into the third and final matchday of Group C.
Uruguay are on six points and have a goal difference of plus-7 and will top the group unless they lose by four goals to the USA.
In second place – the most important place – the US (+1) leads Panama (-1) on goal difference; so the US will advance if both draw or both win by the same margin.
However, if Panama starts pumping goals, the permutations become complicated. The second tiebreaker is the number of goals scored in the group stage — and there, with each team scoring three goals, Panama has an advantage. A 3-0 win by Panama and a 1-0 win by the US would send Panama into the quarterfinals and the US out.
An easier way to handle these permutations is from the Panamanian perspective: they should improve the American outcome; and if they both win, their margin of victory must be at least twice that of the US.
Uruguay is running at full speed
So the superficial view is that the US is doing somewhat well. The problem is, well, everything else.
Panama could very well beat Bolivia, who have shipped five goals to Uruguay and are quite clearly the worst team in Group C.
Uruguay, on the other hand, is humming. Marcelo Bielsa, a respected Argentine manager, has restarted The Celestial and transformed them into perhaps the most impressive team of the 2024 Copa América. They are talented, coordinated and aggressive. They apply man-to-man pressure, ruthlessly, high up the pitch and blitz opponents immediately after winning the ball.
“We know they’re going to be extremely intense and progressive,” said American defender Antonee Robinson, who played against Bielsa’s Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday.
“They’re playing a pretty high-risk, high-reward game,” Robinson added, sometimes leaving space for vertical attackers to exploit.
But the U.S. national team’s most vertical forward, Tim Weah, will be unavailable.
Berhalter’s options after Weah’s suspension
Weah is suspended for two games for his costly red card against Panama; and the USMNT have struggled to adapt in his absence.
They had just three days to come up with a Plan B and figure out how to replace a player whose skills no longer paralleled in the current player pool.
Weah, when fit, has started every USA A-team match for the past two years. He is a fixture on the right flank as his directness, both on and off the ball, gives the US attack a dimension it otherwise lacks.
How will Berhalter reconfigure the USMNT without Weah?
Option #1: The closest thing to a like-for-like replacement would probably be Haji Wright, a forward who has often played centrally in the past but now plays wide for the US and his English club Coventry City.
Wright is more comfortable and effective on the left wing; Christian Pulisic could move to the right, where he spent most of last season for AC Milan in Italy. Such a shift would require other adjustments further up the pitch, however.
Option number 2 would be to play Gio Reyna as a winger and move Yunus Musah into Reyna’s midfield position.
If Reyna is viewed as an integral part in midfield, Option No. 3 would be another versatile attacker, such as Brenden Aaronson or Malik Tillman, on the wing.
But both options have a well-known flaw: when the US plays with two wingers who both Rather than drifting inside, into spaces between the lines — as Reyna, Aaronson and Tillman all do, and as Pulisic often does when playing on the left — the U.S. offense often struggles. Without Weah, for example, they scored zero goals in 180 minutes against Japan and Saudi Arabia in September 2022.
Last, but not necessarily least, Option No. 4 would be something completely unpredictable: perhaps a 3-5-2 with Pulisic and Folarin Balogun up front? Or a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield of Adams, Weston McKennie, Musah and Reyna?
In the past, Berhalter has favored consistency. He deployed roughly the same personnel in the 2022 World Cup, and the exact same lineup in the USMNT’s first two Copa América matches in 2024. But he has at times been willing and able to adapt his system to suit a specific opponent to cope.
Uruguayan mind games?
In the run-up to Monday’s match, legitimate questions have been asked whether Berhalter knows exactly what he is going to counter.
Uruguay has not mathematically qualified for the quarter-finals, but with its place all but confirmed, fans and media have speculated that Bielsa could field something of a second-tier team, to give the regulars a rest for the knockout rounds.
Assistant coach Diego Reyes was asked several times about that possibility on Sunday. He said, after talking about “a lot of variables,” that Monday’s starting lineup had not yet been determined.
Sitting next to Reyes was reserve goalkeeper Franco Israel, an unusual choice for a pre-match press conference, one that raised suspicions of a line-up change. But it was almost too unusual – and perhaps a misguided ploy. Rumors in Uruguayan football circles suggest that Uruguay’s line-up will remain largely unchanged.
“We expect them to play with a full team,” Berhalter said Sunday.
Bielsa also suspended for Monday’s match
However, they will have to do without their coach Bielsa, who was handed a one-match suspension on Sunday after Uruguayan players arrived late for the second half of Thursday’s win over Bolivia.
Bielsa can still prepare his team, of course, but he won’t be in their dressing room or on the sidelines on Monday. He won’t be allowed to have any contact with them once they’re at Arrowhead. Two of his regular assistants, Reyes and Pablo Quiroga, will step in and take charge.
The suspension limits their ability to tap into Bielsa’s wisdom in the middle of the match. But it won’t limit Uruguay’s ability to play BielsaBall. His genius is in his teaching and his training, not in his in-game adjustments. “It’s a well-trained team,” Berhalter said on Sunday. “Regardless of who is on the sidelines, it will be a very similar style of play.
And the assistants agree with his philosophies. Reyes followed him from Chile to Athletic Bilbao from 2007, from Marseille to Lazio (briefly!), from Lille to Leeds and now Uruguay. He sounded confident that he and the staff would be able to handle the assignment well.
“We have been working with Marcelo for a long time,” says Reyes.
A crucial match for US and Berhalter
Most importantly, Uruguay is fully fit and all 26 players are available.
The U.S. will be without Weah and could also be without goalkeeper Matt Turner, who injured his left leg in the first half against Panama and left at halftime.
Turner participated in Sunday’s practice in a limited capacity, Berhalter said. He is doubtful for Monday. Ethan Horvath would start if Turner can’t go.
None of these conditions are ideal for a hugely important match, easily the most important for the USMNT since Qatar. A win would be a proof of concept and help propel the American players into the knockout rounds and beyond. A loss could create a crisis and cost Berhalter his job.
