Two more weeks and the vibes election is back. But this time, the atmosphere is vibrating for the GOP. The question, however, is whether they are more real this time outside the party than they were for Democrats this summer.
A Republican insider whose opinion I respect told me this: “If someone tells you he knows for sure what’s going to happen on Election Day, find out what else he’s lying about.”
Well put. And yet…
Most people in the Republican Party feel very secure about things these days. For the most part. And Democrats are panicking, as is common in the fall of election years. It is not new for Republicans to be overconfident to the point of absurdity, nor for Democrats to panic, or, in Barack Obama’s famous words, to “clean everything up.”
But this October is different. This sucker is near. Or at least that seems to be the case.
An average of the five most recent high-quality national polls has Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just 1.2 points. That’s largely within the swing state shift that has hit Democrats twice this century, down from a 2.2-point lead a month ago.
Most unnerving for Democrats, Harris’ margin looks puny compared to future President Joe Biden’s 7.6-point lead over Trump two weeks after Election Day 2020. Biden would miss that figure by a significant margin if the votes were all counted, and would end up with a lead of 4.5 points. . A similar miss would give Trump not only an easy Electoral College victory but also the first national popular vote victory for a Republican in two decades.
Republican exuberance and Democratic desperation are both encouraged by the fact that all the major election forecasters now say Trump is the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. At the time of writing, Nate Silver says Trump’s odds of winning are 53.1 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ The hill say 52 percent, and 538 say 53 percent. And note: not only do they agree on the likely winner, they are also closely tied to the actual prediction.
I won’t rehash all the problems surrounding forecasting models, except one: they provide a seductive degree of scientific-sounding certainty about a situation that is highly uncertain.
In general, I prefer to stick with the polls because the predictions try to include a lot of things that are difficult to explain in elections, very unlike anything in modern history: a former president who is a criminal and is running against a black, female incumbent president. vice president who didn’t enter the race until well into the summer. And even with polls, I usually keep it simple.
State polls are sparse and unreliable compared to the national picture. For example, in the past two weeks there have been exactly two high-quality polls in Georgia, a state Trump must win. In one he is 6 points ahead. In the other she has a lead of 4 points. There have been seven national polls over the same period, most of which showed a race within the margin of error.
There is no comfort for Democrats there either. If voters who have made up their minds since Labor Day overwhelmingly choose Trump, and there are less than 2 points of undecided voters left, Harris will ultimately be swept away.
So how likely is that?
We have a pretty good idea of who the Trump voters who came in during the early fall were. They are fairly well characterized by the Wall Street Journal editorial that essentially states that while Trump is an enemy of the small Republican establishment, the guardrails would once again hold: “We are confident that American institutions – the Supreme Court, the military, Congress – would resist any attempt to undermine the Constitution.”
And, the paper argues, Democrats are less ambitious in their attacks on the system, but more effective, writing that the blue team may be able to override the legislative filibuster in the Senate: “That, in our view, is a greater threat to the Constitution. than anything Trump could do in a second term.”
If that sounds familiar, it’s because it reflects what the Magazine‘s counterpart on the left, the New York Timeswrote last month in support of Harris:
“She may not be the perfect candidate for every voter, especially those who are frustrated and angry about our government’s inability to fix what is broken — from our immigration system, to public schools, to housing costs and gun violence. Still, we urge Americans to compare Ms. Harris’s record with that of her opponent.”
The Times The endorsement came at the end of Harris’ climb to a polling lead in this race, which was fueled by euphemistic “vibes” or “joy,” as she went from around 45 percent in late July to her current, fairly stable 49 percent. But there she has remained, angering Democrats over her “stalled” performance.
What we have here is a vibeological misunderstanding. Previously distrustful, angry Democrats were the voters behind Harris’ initial surge. What seemed to them like broader momentum was actually just a convention revival that came early. When she replaced Biden first, Democrats came back together and were actually filled with feelings of joy about her and the race.
But while the independent voters who populate the ranks of the persuadable are not immune to vibrations, they are not as sensitive as partisans. Harris’ late-summer surge didn’t so much stall as it achieved its goal: a united, energized Democratic Party. She didn’t so much switch Trump’s voters as she did the Democrats who had thrown up their hands in frustration at Biden’s long march toward electoral disgrace.
That’s not enough to win, but she couldn’t win without it. Necessary, but not sufficient.
Now it’s Republicans’ turn to bask in the vibe-ological glow. Republicans today are as fully committed to Trump as ever before, but this time the party closed ranks behind its candidate much earlier than in the previous two contests. This was partly helped by the now deep familiarity with Trump and his methods, but also by Harris himself. While Biden was a figure of contempt and some pity for many Republicans, Harris is raising real concerns.
So when Trump goes to Mickey D’s or is cheered at a Steelers game, Republicans feel like something has happened. happens, the same way Democrats felt when Harris started packing arenas and dominating the meme wars.
Trump doesn’t give serious interviews, refuses to debate again and is, um, erratic on the sidewalk. But that’s not important to Republicans right now. They have plenty of evidence to suggest that a vibe-only campaign will be enough to push them through. If it worked for Democrats, they think, it can work for them too.
The truth will be much more difficult. Vibes are necessary but not sufficient for the red team, just like they are for the blue.
Read more at De Uitzending
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