Former President Trump narrowly leads President Biden in six of the seven states seen as crucial in the rematch of this year’s election, an advantage driven by the perception that the Republican challenger could better control inflation, a report shows a poll released Thursday.
Trump’s overall advantage in the seven states stands at 47% to 44%, a margin that grows to five percentage points in a five-way battle between independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West. to the Swing State Survey, overseen by the Cook Political Report and two polling companies.
Trump’s head-to-head lead is modest: at or less than the margin of sampling error in four of the states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Read more: Arizona’s economy is booming. But Biden is struggling to reap the benefits of voters
The former president has larger leads in Nevada and North Carolina, at 9% and 7% respectively, while the two have an equal lead in Wisconsin at 45% to 45%, the poll showed.
Although inflation has declined substantially since peaking in the second half of 2022, many voters remain preoccupied with high prices. The Cook survey found that a significant majority of voters think Biden has control over inflation. But only 40% of the seven swing states think prices can be brought under control if he wins a second term, while 56% say a Trump presidency would lead to lower inflation.
Biden has a lead among voters with his support for abortion rights, but the poll showed more voters focusing on economic issues. When nearly 4,000 voters in the seven states were asked what worries them more: Biden overseeing economic policy or Trump setting abortion policy, 55% said they were more concerned about Biden dealt with the economy than about Trump setting policy on abortion (45%).
“Right now, the defining issue for this fight is a more traditional one: the economy,” Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis of the results.
“While abortion remains a major issue for Democrats, President Biden’s advantage in this area is not strong enough to offset Trump’s overall strength in lowering the cost of living,” Walter wrote. “Biden’s overall weak position, combined with voters’ deep concerns about rising costs, currently limits his ability to argue that Trump is the bigger risk.”
Read more: California’s housing crisis is hitting Nevada hard. Could that help Trump win a crucial state?
Both candidates face different challenges, with Biden’s “age and ability to complete his term” cited by slightly more potential voters than Trump’s “temperament and legal challenges” — by a margin of 53% to 47%. Biden is 81 years old, Trump is 77.
“The race is still close because both candidates’ personal weaknesses make it difficult for them to leverage the issues that should benefit them,” Walter wrote.
Trump did marginally better in four of the seven key states in a hypothetical race including the additional candidates. The Cook poll found that the former president had a lead in that scenario of 43% to 38%, with Kennedy at 8%.
Joining the Cook Report in conducting the survey were BSG, a polling firm with ties to Democrats, and GS Strategy Group, a firm that works primarily with Republicans. The pollsters reached voters between May 6 and 13. Of those who responded, 85% said they were “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote.
Get the LA Times Politics newsletter. Deeply reported insights into law, politics and policy from Sacramento, Washington and beyond, delivered to your inbox three times a week.
This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
