SHAKOPEE, Minn. — Six voters linked to missing midterm ballots in a south metro Minnesota House race testified Tuesday that they voted for incumbent DFL Rep. Brad Tabke, who said the evidence did not left doubt that he is the winner of the final round. race.
Tabke defeated GOP challenger Aaron Paul by 14 votes in House District 54A on Election Day, which was later confirmed by a recount. But it involved 21 ballots that were not taken into account – a number that exceeds his margin of victory. An investigation identified twenty of them, who came from a single district. probably thrown in the trash.
Paul submitted an election contest because of those outstanding ballots and wants new elections. The trial – for which there is no jury, only a judge who makes the final decision – lasted two days and ended Tuesday.
The outcome could determine the balance of power in the Minnesota House, which is tied with Tabke’s victory. If Paul were to prevail, Republicans would have a one-seat majority.
Over the two days, attorneys for both candidates presented witnesses, including voters identified as those who filled out absentee ballots that were not counted. Under oath, six people said Monday they voted for Paul, while another six said Tuesday they voted for Tabke.
All their identities are sealed and they were not named in court.
“The main question was that nothing in those twenty ballots would change where we are today – would not change the outcome of the election. And we understood that insight unequivocally,” Tabke told reporters after the trial ended.
Voters for Paul took the stand Monday, saying they were “upset” and felt “deprived” because their ballots were improperly discarded in some way. The elections administrator testified that this violated their policy for handling absentee ballots.
On Tuesday, Tabke’s voters were in the spotlight. His attorney, David Zoll, also called a statistician from the University of Minnesota to the stand who laid out a model he created that offered different scenarios for distributing the outstanding ballots, showing the likelihood of who would win the election if Paul got all those votes. or part of those votes.
“If Tabke gets four more votes, the net difference would be 18. But there would be only 16 votes left, leaving Paul no way to catch up,” said Aaron Rendahl, associate professor of statistics and computer science at the University of Minnesota. veterinary school.
Reid LeBeau, Paul’s attorney, called a rebuttal witness from Thomas Brunell, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, who said he had “specific criticisms” of Rendahl’s statistical analysis, including that its assumptions were wrong were because “early voters are typically different from Election Day voters.”
LeBeau focused on the statistical approach in his opening statements Monday.
“The participant will argue for a dangerous precedent in which statistical models replace the ballots cast,” he said.
Both lawyers must file additional documents with the court before and after Christmas with deadlines, making it unlikely the judge will make a decision before New Year. She will also send a report with her conclusions to the legislature by the first day of the legislative session, which is January 14.
There is a separate election contest challenging a DFL candidate’s residency in another metro district that could have a similar impact on the makeup of the House.
If there is a special election for both or either seat, it would likely happen while the Legislature is already in session for the 2025 session.
Caroline Cummings
