A new focus group of voters who plan to cast ballots this fall — but did not participate in the 2020 presidential election — illustrates how both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are leaning on a core message to try to woo the electorate expand the US. a close race.
Harris is gaining momentum among these voters because they believe she would protect abortion rights, and some have broader hopes that the election of the first female president could send a strong message to the country. But she has been weighed down by several key factors: a vague diagnosis of the U.S. economy, negative views of life during President Joe Biden’s administration and a lack of familiarity with her that has cultivated ambivalence and distrust.
Things are different for Trump, one of the best-known political figures in the world. Some of these voters believe his behavior while in office has disqualified him in their eyes, and even some of his supporters fear he will focus more on fighting his enemies than governing in a second term.
Yet a majority of the dozen participants in two sessions — part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, produced in partnership with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago — lean toward Trump for the oldest reason in politics: It’s the economy.
“I’m getting older and the economy is really starting to hit us hard. Just in terms of inflation, costs and the job market, all of these things are starting to impact me and my family, so it definitely feels like it’s more important this year,” said Ashley S., 34, of Clayton, North Carolina, which she said is leaning toward Trump — but isn’t sure she’ll ultimately vote.
James B., 56, of Las Vegas, called the choice “easy.” He didn’t vote in 2020 because he was moving, but he plans to vote this year.
“My financial situation has deteriorated repeatedly,” he said, adding that “it is almost beyond survival.” I was better off when he became president.”
Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions, said: “Most of these voters who were absent in 2020 will vote for Trump this year because they believe he can make the 2025 economy look like the 2019 economy with low inflation.”
This is evident from NBC News’ national polls this year. In the last three polls, Trump led Harris 50% to 40% among those confirmed not to have voted in 2022 or 2020.
But surprisingly, less than half of respondents said they had a strong interest in the upcoming election, raising questions about how many of them will vote.
On the panels, all three voters leaning toward Harris were women who, in part, said they connected with her on an emotional level.
“I just feel like she feels my struggle,” said Vitena A., 50, of Atlanta.
Sabrina W., 32, of Beulaville, North Carolina, said she is leaning toward Harris because of policy proposals such as a new credit for first-time homebuyers, saying it could make it easier for her to buy a home.
“She seems like a caring person,” Sabrina said. “I am hopeful that if elected, she would be a great example of a female president.”
And Nicole R. 40, of Lewisville, North Carolina, said she is voting for Harris because “women’s reproductive rights” is her top issue. She described her vote as “less of a vote for her and more of a vote against Trump,” adding that she had never seriously considered voting for Trump. She plans to vote this year, as opposed to 2020, because “I have two young daughters and I think the stakes are higher.”
Two focus group participants had recent changes of heart, including one that occurred during the discussion.
One, Sharmen C., 36, of Atlanta, said reproductive rights were her most important issue. But while she said she was leaning toward Harris when she was screened to participate in the focus group, she described having a change of heart in recent days over her economic concerns.
“Now I’m leaning toward Trump simply because I see how my life and my family’s situation has deteriorated since the Biden-Harris administration, and [abortion rights] is just one position of Harris that interests me. So I think Trump would be a stronger candidate,” she said.
“I think my priorities are more with my home, with my household, than with what’s happening in general. It may be a selfish decision, but there are other issues that I think she is too liberal on,” Sharmen said.
Margaret Talev, director of the Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship at Syracuse University in Washington, said: “A recurring theme among these voters was the idea that Vice President Harris has either not demonstrated her ability to wield political power, or that she believing that other people will not give a female president the same confidence as a male president, so she inherently will not be able to govern as well as Trump, and that could impact national security or her ability to achieve anything.”
Zaire H., 36, of Detroit, said she “leaned more toward Harris” during the focus group, with fond memories of her economic situation during the Trump administration outweighing Harris’ support for reproductive rights.
But when asked how Trump’s promise not to support a national abortion ban affects her vote, she replied: “Yes, that’s good enough for me. Let’s go.”
“That would completely change my vote,” she said. “I would be willing to vote for Trump,” adding that it wouldn’t bother her that women in other states wouldn’t have the same access to abortion as she does because “I don’t live in those states.”
Another problem for Harris lies in these voters’ perceptions of the Biden administration, compared to a relative nostalgia for the Trump years.
They used descriptions like “prosperous,” “OK” and “just normal” to describe life in America under Trump, and words like “struggling,” “difficult” and “disturbing” to describe life during the Biden administration .
But even among those inclined to vote for him, concerns remain about Trump’s personality and the way he would lead the country.
“If he were elected, I would be afraid he would spend his entire term on Twitter fighting and fighting in the courts instead of being president,” said Kevin H., a 43-year-old from Alpharetta, Georgia, who chooses between Trump and a third-party candidate.
After these voters experienced the highest turnout election in modern history in 2020, there are still questions about whether they will actually decide to cast their ballots this year.
Ashley S. said that while the “likelihood” that she would vote for Trump continues to increase, “it’s still just me actually voting, that’s the problem.”
And Sharmen C., who is undecided but has shifted from leaning more toward Harris to Trump, estimated there was a 70% chance she would vote, but a 30% chance she wouldn’t . She’s caught between the fear of choosing the wrong candidate and the “guilt” she feels after missing out on 2020.
‘There is fear mongering to which I have fallen victim. “I’m really concerned about Project 2025’s agenda, and I feel like if I don’t want to make the wrong decision, I might have to postpone it – and that’s why I didn’t participate in the last elections,” she said .
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
