By Jason Lange and James Oliphant
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Joe Biden is hemorrhaging support among voters without a college degree – a large group that includes Black people, Hispanic women, young voters and suburban women – and producing a much tighter rematch against his Republican predecessor Donald Trump than in 2020, Reuters/Ipsos polls show.
Biden’s support among voters without a four-year degree has fallen 10 percentage points from this point in the 2020 campaign, according to the analysis of about 24,000 registered voter responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls in 2020 and 2024.
Americans without a college degree made up three out of five voters in 2020.
These declines have helped set the stage for what national polls show: a tie between Biden and Trump.
The poll was completed before a jury in New York found Trump guilty Thursday of trying to cover a hush money payment to a porn star.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Friday found that one in 10 Republican registered voters would be less likely to vote for Trump after that verdict, a number that could make a difference in a close race. That poll also showed Biden with a 2 percentage point lead, well below the 6 point lead he had at this point in 2020.
The few bright spots for Biden remain voters with college degrees or households earning more than $100,000 a year, the analysis showed.
Reuters looked at responses from more than 8,000 registered voters in Reuters/Ipsos polls from March to May 2024 and from more than 16,000 in the same period in 2020.
The analysis showed that voters who have become disenchanted with Biden are not switching en masse to Trump. Instead, many appear to be throwing up their hands, frustrated with their choices and unsure of what they will do in the Nov. 5 election.
Mary Jo McConnell, 67, of Elba, New York, has soured on both parties after supporting Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
“They are not providing candidates that I think are capable of addressing the challenges we face,” McConnell said.
McConnell and her husband rely on Social Security benefits. She completed a two-year college and worked in a cannery and a salt mine. When she retired, she took a few part-time jobs to earn extra money when prices rose. McConnell said she plans to vote in November but has not yet decided who she will choose.
Responding to the Reuters analysis, the Biden campaign said national polls provide an incomplete picture of the race because voters outside battleground states are not seeing the campaign’s message.
“We are extremely focused on the competitive states and doing outreach and voter contact and campaign events in the competitive states,” said Matt Barreto, a pollster for the Biden campaign. “Often, national polls obscure the progress any campaign is making.”
‘IT IS SCARY’
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in May showed Biden’s approval rating falling to the lowest level of his presidency, at 36%, with just over five months to go until the election.
Concerns about the economy have some past Biden voters saying they are willing to at least consider voting for Trump.
Julio Miranda, 47, of Canoga Park, California, said his household expenses have soared during Biden’s term.
Inflation has been an ongoing problem for Biden, and while inflation has not yet reached 2022, grocery prices have risen more than 20% since he took office, according to U.S. Department of Labor estimates. High interest rates – intended to cool inflation – have made purchases such as cars and houses significantly more expensive.
“Forget I’m buying a house,” said Miranda, who is of Mexican descent and does not have a college degree.
Miranda, who has seen the produce distribution industry he works for struggle with high costs, said he saw Biden’s Democrats as excessive, adding: “They’re not looking out for middle-class people.”
Chris Wells, 47, a gym owner in Charleston, South Carolina, voted for Biden in 2020 but is now concerned about the 81-year-old president’s age and physical health.
Wells said he won’t vote for the 77-year-old Trump, but that doesn’t mean he will vote for Biden amid concerns about the economy.
“You don’t even know how discouraging it is. It’s scary,” Wells said. “Maybe I’ll sign myself up,” he joked.
Biden won the 2020 election by around seven million votes nationally, but the state-by-state Electoral College system means US presidential elections can be won and lost in seven highly competitive swing states, including Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, what Biden adopted on paper. -thin margins. It wouldn’t take much erosion for those states to turn to Trump.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent and has received double-digit support in many polls, also complicates matters.
“The reason Biden is struggling in this presidential race is because, across the board, he is dropping support from voters who were crucial to his coalition in 2020,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst at Inside Elections, a nonpartisan research group. .
“Any significant decline will be magnified because the gap separating him from Trump in the most crucial states was quite small.”
THE CRUMBLING COALITION
Reuters chose early March to mid-May in both election years to get the most accurate comparison possible. In March 2020, Biden was the dominant Democratic presidential candidate and the US began to slide into the COVID pandemic.
Since early March of this year, Biden’s share of non-college-educated registered voters has fallen 10 percentage points from 42% in the same period in 2020 to 32%. Trump’s share of non-college-educated voters increased marginally from 42 to 44%. %.
This year, a slightly larger share of non-college-educated voters say they might vote for a third-party candidate, or not at all.
Biden is down marginally — one percentage point — among college-educated voters, while Trump is down 3 points, and a slightly higher share of college graduates are looking at third-party candidates or saying they won’t vote.
Biden’s share of voters in households earning less than $50,000 a year fell 14 points to 33%, while Trump rose 5 points to 40%. Trump is down 4 points to 38% among those making more than $100,000, while Biden is down 2 points to 43%.
Biden has seen support weaken in other demographic groups that played a major role in his 2020 victory.
Among voters aged 18 to 29, Biden’s support fell 11 percentage points to 37%. Trump is slightly higher in this demographic group at 30%, while slightly larger shares are still undecided or say they won’t vote.
Among Hispanic women, Biden is down 19 points to 39%, down from 58% in 2020. Relative to 2020, slightly higher shares say they are undecided, will not vote or will lean toward another candidate, including Trump. Biden’s support among Hispanic men is roughly stable.
Among black men and black women, Biden’s support has fallen 15 points.
Among suburban women, Biden’s support fell 7 points to 42%, while Trump remained flat at 34%, and compared to 2020, a larger share of them may choose a different candidate or not vote at all.
The survey results had a precision level that ranged between approximately 2 and 6 percentage points.
TURNING TO TRUMP?
Amy Buckingham, a 50-year-old real estate agent and hairstylist in a Denver suburb, said that after voting Democratic most of her life, she has decided to vote for Trump.
“He’s a bully. He’s unpredictable. But he makes things happen and he’s a businessman,” said Buckingham, a married gay woman with two children. “No one can force me to check a box. I will not be marginalised.”
The challenge for the Biden campaign will be finding a way to appeal to these voters, but aides insist their job is easier than Trump’s, who they say is about to be tapped in terms of growth potential.
“We just have to make a strong case for people who are inclined to vote for us, and we will see those numbers change,” said Mark Riddle, chairman of Future Majority, a Democratic firm that tracks voter sentiment.
“Ultimately, voters don’t want excuses,” Riddle said. “They want to see what you’ll do for them.”
(Reporting by Jason Lange and James Oliphant; Editing by Scott Malone and Suzanne Goldenberg)
