In the most evenly divided New Hampshire House district in the state, Rochester Ward 4, every ballot counted on Tuesday. But two voters almost reached an agreement.
The pair, an older woman who voted Democratic and a younger man who voted Republican, met in line and realized their votes would cancel each other out. “We almost just said ‘nix it’ and went for a beer,” said the woman, who identified herself as Lucie.
In the end they both voted. And voters in the district, where the votes were tied in 2022, opted to send a Republican candidate, Sam Farrington, to the State House, handily ousting Democratic incumbent Chuck Grassie.
That pattern played out again and again on Tuesday, as a string of vulnerable Democrats in the House of Representatives lost their seats to Republican challengers. And now New Hampshire Republicans appear to have staved off Democrats’ attempts to take back control of the House and have increased their slim lead in the House of Representatives.
The party is expected to win 222 of the 400 seats in the House of Representatives, according to a social media post from the New Hampshire House Clerk on Wednesday afternoon
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Those figures could not immediately be confirmed; The Associated Press had secured just over 100 of the legislative seats as of Wednesday afternoon.
But if true, the final numbers would mean a significant increase in control for Republicans and give them more comfortable margins to pass major pieces of legislation next year. Republicans started the last two years with the smallest majorities in modern New Hampshire history — 201 Republican seats to 199 Democratic seats — and were barely able to hold on to that lead amid a series of resignations and special elections that session.
Heading into Tuesday’s elections, Democrats were defending 18 seats won with less than 2 percent of the vote in 2022; Republicans defended 19. That created an opportunity for both parties to make gains and leave control of the House of Representatives to the whims of minuscule changes heading into the presidential election.
But early numbers suggest Republicans have been more successful in flipping those districts.
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The Associated Press confirmed that Matt Coker won re-election to his seat in Meredith, automatically giving Republicans an additional seat after Coker left the Democratic Party and became a Republican during the last session.
And while the AP had not made calls by early afternoon Wednesday, voting results suggested that Republicans had flipped Democratic seats in Allenstown, Berlin, Boscawen, Brookline, Goffstown, Hollis, Laconia, Littleton and Pembroke, with more potential victories pending of further reported results. .
In Laconia, Democrat Charlie St. Clair, a well-known figure who helps organize Laconia Bike Week, appeared to hold on to his seat. But Republicans claimed victory in another seat in that district previously held by Democrat David Huot.
In Goffstown, voters turned a district represented by three Republicans and one Democrat into an all-Republican district.
They did the same in Littleton, voting to put Republicans in all three seats instead of just two.
As a result, the New Hampshire House began to take a more traditional shape, with one party having a decisive hold on the chamber. It’s a contrast after two years of unusually thin margins that forced certain compromises and made any Republican bill a precarious affair.
Both candidates for Rochester Ward 4 stood at the entrance of McClelland Elementary School; Grassie, 72 and the founder of the Rochester Childcare Center, and his Republican opponent, Farrington, a student and farmer at the University of New Hampshire. Both candidates defined the central issue of the race differently.
“Education,” Grassie said in an interview. “Rochester has an education system that is struggling. When I talk to voters, I say, you know there are two places you can get your money: one is from the state and the other is from the local taxpayers. And I’m not here to take more money from local taxpayers. I’m here to try to get more money from the state.”
Farrington identified broader economic problems. “Families are being burned with high prices, housing, health care, etc.”
He said in the State House that he would push to reduce the size of New Hampshire’s government and lower its tax burden. “The government, like families, needs to tighten its belt,” he said.
But even in the divided Rochester Ward 4, many voters said Tuesday they had not paid special attention to the House races. Some said they were unaware of the rare, equal election results in 2022 and the special election rerun that put Grassie in control.
Instead, voters said their choices for the state Legislature largely reflected their top presidential and governor choices.
Lucie, who declined to give her last name, said she was pushed to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris because of concerns about health care and the continued funding of Medicaid to help her son, who has a disability. She believed that Donald Trump’s presidency increases the risk of program cuts. Her choice of Harris translated into Joyce Craig and the vote for the Democrats.
“I’ve seen it fluctuate,” she said of Medicaid funding. “… And when the board changes, I start to see things change.”
Doug Nadeau, the Trump voter Lucie befriended, was — like many Republican voters — driven by concerns about the economy and personal finances. Nadeau, who works at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, has seen his salary increase over the years. But he said that had increased the cost of food and goods, reducing his higher benefits.
“Money went a long way back then, when Trump was still in power,” he said. He added that he had not paid much attention to the governor’s race or legislative votes, but had voted out Republicans to tailor his choices to his economic concerns.
Low awareness of the House and Senate elections is well known among New Hampshire politicians; Data shows that some voters are leaving the bottom races on their ballots blank after voting for president and governor.
Standing among a forest of signs outside McClelland Elementary School, a polling place, Sen. James Gray of Rochester said he and other lawmakers have instructions they are giving to voters to ensure they don’t miss any races: “Turn over the ballot, Start at the bottom and vote up.”
One voter, Donald Smith, was a rare exception. Smith, an independent, voted for Trump and largely stuck with Republicans, including Kelly Ayotte, the Republican who won Tuesday’s race for governor. But when it came to his choice of state House representatives, Smith hesitated.
He voted for Farrington, against Grassie. But he also voted to send some Democrats to the State House in the city’s Floteriale district, such as John Larochelle.
Smith doesn’t take party into account in his decision, he said; he takes people into account.
“It’s time for some new blood,” he said. “…We need to make some changes. And you’re not going to make those changes if you keep voting for the same people and the same policies and plans over and over again.”
This story was originally published by New Hampshire Bulletin.
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