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Russia has an edge over Ukraine when it comes to artillery – which is still king.
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A new analysis identified several ways the West could disrupt Russia’s artillery supply chain.
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Analysts said the West should go after Russia’s foreign imports before it is too late.
More than two and a half years after the start of Ukraine’s brutal, high-casualty war, artillery shells and the howitzer cannons that fire them remain among the most devastating weapons on the battlefield.
Despite international sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s war machine, Russia has maintained an edge over Ukraine in artillery production and rate of fire.
More than a dozen analysts from the Royal United Services Institute wrote in a new report that Russia’s artillery advantage is “the largest determining factor in the distribution of casualties and equipment losses, the balance of military initiative, the calculation of what is operationally possible, and thus the political perception of the trajectory of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
Russian artillery is estimated to be responsible for more than 70 percent of Ukrainian combat casualties.
RUSI analysts said the West must disrupt the industries that keep Russia’s deadly and destructive howitzers ablaze before it is too late for Ukraine.
Russia’s defense industry is growing through new facilities, importing supply and massive recruitment, the analysts said. They said that without interruption, Moscow will be better prepared to strengthen its position in Ukraine in the coming years.
The report explained that “Russia is self-sufficient in many of its needs, especially in raw materials such as iron ore, and may have sufficient Soviet-era machine tools and stockpiled howitzers to support the war in Ukraine.”
However, the analysts said, “the longer the war continues, the more Russia’s dependence on foreign suppliers will become a weakness.”
It is difficult for Western countries to target the supply chain within Russia because there are elements in place that can protect companies from measures such as international sanctions. But the analysts have identified several vulnerabilities in the process of importing foreign materials before they reach the country.
These vulnerabilities include imposing sanctions on the supply of essential materials to Russia, pre-emptively purchasing raw materials on the open market to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile countries, or applying diplomatic pressure on countries to investigate domestic companies that export goods. to Russia.
One example given by the RUSI report was the import of chrome ore for barrel production. Another involved obstructing the flow of processing equipment to Russia.
The analysts said Ukraine’s Western partners should immediately prioritize disrupting Russia’s artillery supply chain, as doing so for extended periods would make it harder for Moscow to maintain its howitzers and artillery ammunition.
This is crucial for Ukraine. The analysts warned that “if we stay on the current path, Russia’s fire superiority will increase year on year and become less vulnerable to external disruption from supply chain pressure.”
The task may become even more urgent for the West as Russia continues to strengthen its security ties with China, Iran and North Korea. The US has publicly expressed concern in recent years about Moscow’s deepening military relations with its rivals and enemies.
Ukraine has managed to reduce Russia’s artillery lead and is increasingly taking steps to downgrade its shell supplies by deploying long-range drones to attack ammunition depots in Russia. However, more is needed to break the Russian lead.
Read the original article on Business Insider
