The Cincinnati Bengals are not headed to the playoffs, and I will be sad if their season ends. They have become the perfect fantasy carnival for 2024, a loaded offense that nothing can stop on defense.
Pittsburgh marched into Cincinnati and defeated the Bengals 44-38 on Sunday. For Cincinnati fans, the game felt like a replay. The Bengals racked up 375 yards of offense and 25 first downs, but it wasn’t enough — because Pittsburgh’s offense included 28 first downs and 520 yards of offense. For a day, Arthur Smith had Bill Walsh mojo with the Pittsburgh playsheet.
Joe Burrow threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns in the loss (23.16 fantasy points), and most of Cincinnati’s production went to the skills players need. Ja’Marr Chase (6-86-1 for 17.6 points), Tee Higgins (5-69-1 for 15.4 points) and Chase Brown (100 total yards and 17.5 points)) all had touchdowns. Half of Burrow’s targets went to Chase or Higgins. Brown had 12 carries that day, Khalil Herbert just one. We like this kind of narrow ball distribution.
I wasn’t sure if the Steelers would aggressively target Cincinnati’s poor secondary, but they did. Russell Wilson racked up 414 passing yards and three touchdowns (27.86 fantasy points), gobbling up 10.9 yards per attempt. His 38 pass attempts were a season high. The Pittsburgh goal tree was wider than we’d like, but George Pickens (3-74-1 for 14.9 points) still got home and Pat Freiermuth (6-68-1 for 15.8 points) was handy when you needed. And tailback Najee Harris continued his underrated season, with 22 touches for 129 yards and a score.
It’s a bummer to see that the rematch between these teams won’t happen until Week 18 – a week after most fantasy leagues end. But let’s save the rest of Cincinnati’s schedule for fantasy purposes. The Bengals travel to Dallas and Tennessee and then close out the fantasy playoffs with home games against Cleveland and Denver. The over has been reached in nine of Cincinnati’s 12 games, despite numbers routinely being above 40 or even above 50. I see no reason why that trend will slow down.
Commanders continue to provide fantasy fireworks
The best version of a carnival for the NFC might be in Washington, where the Commanders ranked fifth in offensive DVOA this week but only 28th in defensive DVOA. Jayden Daniels was back in form in a 42-19 win over Tennessee, throwing for three touchdowns and running in a fourth. That pushed Daniels to the top of the overall leaderboard, with SNF and MNF yet to play, scoring 28.64 points in Yahoo’s standard scoring.
The top two Washington Pass Catchers came home: Terry McLaurin continued his career season (8-73-2 for 23.3 fantasy points) and Zach Ertz (3-35-1 for 11 points) is still handy in his age-34 season. The backfield was more of a platoon approach, but Brian Robinson (16-103-1 for 17.4 points) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (13-94-1) both scored, the Rodriguez spike was a bad time special. Running backs love those fourth-quarter carries, running through and around tired, withdrawn defenders.
Washington is in Week 14 and closes out the season with three potentially fun games: at New Orleans, then at home against Philadelphia and Atlanta. Mark your calendars.
Most of Tennessee’s cornerbacks were misses, except for touchdown hero Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (3-61-2 for 19.6 points), who has now scored eight times in eight games. His season stats read like a glorious misprint: 20 catches, 365 yards, eight touchdowns. Since NWI has seen rapid shares of over 90% since the DeAndre Hopkins trade, we’ve been able to put him in some sleeper columns. Perhaps Westbrook-Ikhine will graduate next week, when managers will face the final challenge of the bye week (six teams not playing) of the season.
The sad endgame for Kirk Cousins
The Falcons worked on a curious offseason plan at quarterback, signing Kirk Cousins to a bloated contract during the free-agency period and signing Michael Penix Jr. a month later. drafted in the first round. Nowadays, they probably wish they had skipped Cousins altogether.
It was another dud for Cousins in the 17-13 loss to the Chargers – no touchdowns, four picks, a paltry 6.3 YPA, a lousy 40.0 rating. His arm strength has been compromised and too many of his decisions come slowly. Watch the touchdown he gifted to the Chargers, flipping the lead in the fourth quarter.
Cousins had two glorious days against Tampa Bay this year, playing QB1 and QB3. But for the rest of the season, his average finishing position is a paltry 21.6. This is a player who looks good and he brings some talented pass catchers with him.
I thought the Chargers might rotate the receiver after Monday night’s game – Ladd McConkey caught everything, Quentin Johnston couldn’t catch anything – and that’s what we saw against the Falcons. McConkey destroyed his prop in the first half, en route to a 9-117-0 clinic on 12 targets. Johnston was targeted just four times, delivering a paltry 2-12-0 return. I’m going to proactively draft McConkey next year even if the Chargers bring in an impact receiver. Johnston should be cut from most standard Yahoo leagues for the remainder of 2024.
Remark: I will continue to add Week 13 analysis after Sunday Night Football.
