Now that the main points of the offseason are over, attention has turned to what is actually possible for the upcoming NFL season. The new crop of NFL head coaches will soon take the stage, and there has been a tumultuous history with first-year head coaches in recent years.
Seven coaches have been hit with the dreaded one-and-done tag since the 2018 season, and the idea of coaches being fired after one season isn’t as rare as it used to be. Carolina’s Frank Reich was the last, losing his gig after 11 games in 2023.
Here’s a look at the new head coaches and what could trip them up and land them in the NFL’s saddest fraternity.
(It’s unlikely that any of these guys will be fired, so just joke about it).
Look, Commanders fans may not like this thought, but this is a volatile situation Quinn is running into. As mentioned in the introduction, it is unlikely that any of these head coaches will be fired during or immediately after Year 1, but there are a number of things working against Quinn, mainly that he was not the first choice of the new ownership group that recently took over the club bought. Commanders. It was incredibly clear that commanders were all in on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson before he decided to stay in Detroit. Quinn may be fine in the long run, but a starting quarterback on a bad team with a shaky offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) isn’t the most stable base to stand on. There’s a lot of room for improvement from the Commanders’ 4-13 record from a season ago, so Quinn might not have to jump too high to impress people.
The scenario in which Morris is fired is simple: Kirk Cousins has a season so bad that the Falcons end up in the top five of next year’s draft. It’s unlikely, but Morris has taken a job that comes with high expectations, even though the Falcons spent the eighth overall draft pick on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback not expected to play this year. The Falcons were a 7-10 team the last three years and the addition of Cousins is expected to get them back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season. That’s a lot of pressure for a new head coach, with team owner Arthur Blank showing that his patience is wearing thin due to the lack of success within the organization.
Mayo probably has one of the smallest risks of being a one-and-done. The only way this would happen is if the Patriots put together a season similar to what the Panthers did last season. Mayo will have a long line, especially if Drake Maye is the player many think he is.
Speaking of the Panthers! Given the recent turmoil and progression of their quarterback and head coaching situations during the David Tepper era, nothing is off limits here. However, the Panthers have to choose stability at some point, right? Even if it’s just for the sake of it. They are locked into Bryce Young for at least the 2024 season, so Canales should have security beyond this season even if it is a disaster. Tepper cannot afford to hire another head coach in 2025. He can, but you know what.
It would be surprising that Callahan is a one-and-done considering how the Titans have positioned themselves to be competent this season. This is not a bad team and they have tried to give Will Levis a chance to succeed with moves they made this offseason. Callahan is in the same boat as Mayo, where it would take an unforeseen catastrophe of a season before he would lose his job.
Pierce is in a slightly different spot as he was an interim coach last season for a wave that ultimately landed him the full-time job. He could actually be in danger here if the Raiders go on a slide (possibly given their quarterback room) and take a few steps back from last year because he is familiar with the program. He’s taking over completely for the first time, but he’s not new to the Raiders.
The Seahawks would have waited forever for Macdonald. He is immune to being fired this season.
The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone with his steak and milk habits. He will have an incredibly long line to get this job done, which makes sense given his strong track record as a head coach.
