The Justice Department’s groundbreaking proposal to dismantle Google’s search monopoly offers the first clear insight into how Washington’s accelerating antitrust efforts could clip the wings of Big Tech giants — and also raises political questions about how long these push will survive.
Unlike European regulators targeting the same companies, President Joe Biden’s enforcers are jumping for the fences and proposing a radical restructuring of the way Google operates, rather than stripping the company of fines.
“What is remarkable is the breadth of the proposal,” said Cristina Caffarra, co-founder of the Competition Research Policy Network and an adviser to regulators and plaintiffs pursuing Google on both sides of the Atlantic.
The DOJ’s proposal, filed late Tuesday night, comes after a judge ruled in August that the company illegally monopolized the online search and advertising markets. The possible solutions proposed by the government are far-reaching: from restrictions on new deals with phone and computer manufacturers to restrictions on the use of artificial intelligence and even a complete restructuring, almost everything is being considered. A final proposal is expected at the end of next month.
But as U.S. competition enforcers step up their battle with the top tech companies — Apple, Amazon and Meta also face lawsuits, and Google is embroiled in a separate DOJ fight — they are expected to face a series of hurdles.
The Google lawsuit faces, first through the process, a long string of filing dates, hearings and likely challenges that will delay meaningful changes for years. And all cases could include skeptical judges concerned about overly invasive remedies for monopoly power.
With a new administration poised to take the White House next year, presidential politics could also undermine any broader pressure on the tech giants. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are both under pressure to replace Biden’s hard-hitting antitrust enforcers — especially Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan.
“Neither candidate has been very clear about their antitrust priorities,” said Rebecca Haw Allensworth, an antitrust expert at Vanderbilt Law School.
Spokespeople for the Harris campaign declined to comment on whether the vice president supports a breakup of Google or whether Biden would maintain Biden’s antitrust stance on technology if elected president. Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said that while the Republican nominee has put together a transition leadership group, “formal discussions about who will serve in a second Trump administration [are] premature.”
It’s possible the details could change as the DOJ finalizes its requests over the next month. But the aggressive proposal to downsize Google is already being seen by antitrust experts as a signal of what’s to come for Big Tech — with U.S. antitrust enforcers increasingly willing to take big shots against the world’s most powerful companies.
Florian Ederer, an economist at Boston University who specializes in competition policy, said the preliminary proposal to spin off key Google products such as Chrome or Android would “mark a historic moment in the [digital] antitrust enforcement.” He said such a break could have “profound economic consequences not just for Google but for the broader technology ecosystem.”
Caffarra called it “a world away from the European approach”, which she described as far too cautious.
“That American enforcement went from far behind Europe – in a coma until 2019 – to this in five years’ time it will be proof that antitrust is mainly about attitude and drive, and that regulators are getting their act together,” Caffarra said.
In addition to the DOJ, the Google search lawsuit was joined by the attorneys general of dozens of states, who remain co-plaintiffs.
In a statement, Google attacked the DOJ’s “radical and sweeping proposals” and warned of “unintended consequences” — including weakened consumer privacy, the collapse of popular Google products and a decline in U.S. AI innovation “at a critical time ‘.
The technology lobby largely echoed Google’s complaints. Chris Mohr, president of the Software and Information Industry Association, said in a statement Wednesday that the DOJ is “seeking to punish Google for its continued innovation” and that its proposal “will make the Internet less safe for Americans… kneecap AI development and broader Undermining American national interests.”
Google noted that Tuesday’s DOJ proposal is “the beginning of a long process.” The company plans to appeal the underlying decision that it has an illegal monopoly, a process that will likely take years to fully resolve. It pledged to respond to the DOJ’s latest remedies “as we argue our case in court next year.”
It’s possible that the DOJ’s antitrust enforcers will eventually back down from a Google breakup or other, more aggressive solutions to its monopoly.
Allensworth said many of the DOJ’s questions are already “pushing the boundaries in terms of being stronger than what antitrust law, at least over the last four decades, has imposed in monopolization cases.” And if the agency steps on the accelerator, she says, there’s a good chance federal judges will reject more sweeping changes to the company, especially plans to spin off Android, Chrome or Play.
“I view this as a very unlikely remedy for the court to grant because divorces are seen as an unusually invasive remedy that requires strong justification,” Allensworth said. She added that Google’s control over these three products is largely secondary to this specific case.
The DOJ’s antitrust enforcers will also come under new leadership in the White House in January. Jonathan Kanter, head of the agency’s Antitrust Division, would almost certainly resign if Trump wins, and the former president would face significant pressure from orthodox conservatives to replace him with a softer approach. Harris is under her own pressure from tech billionaires — including some bankrolling her presidential campaign — to fire aggressive antitrust enforcers like Khan.
“All bets are off if Trump wins,” Caffarra said, adding that it is also “really unclear” who Harris will choose to lead the DOJ and its antitrust wing.
But other experts don’t expect any major change once Biden leaves office.
In the specific case of Google’s search monopoly, the horse has largely left the barn: the DOJ will have already filed its final legal remedies by the time a new president takes over, heralding a lengthy appeals process.
Bill Kovacic, a former FTC chairman and antitrust professor at George Washington University Law School, said he suspects Trump “will not tamper” with the case, which was initially filed in 2020, toward the end of his administration.
“Trump brought the Google search case! That’s his business,” Kovacic said. “He doesn’t like these companies. He has no pity for them. So I imagine he would say to his assistant attorney general, “Keep up the good work, full steam ahead.”
Despite the clamor from billionaires, Kovacic said Biden is also unlikely to ditch Big Tech’s combative approach to market power. He noted that there was a large fan base for antitrust enforcement in Washington, and outside of that, he feared Harris would turn to Silicon Valley, where she started her career.
“She would pay a significant price if she were to withdraw in any way from these large, visible and high-profile cases,” Kovacic said.
Despite the many hurdles and open questions, the former FTC chairman said Tuesday’s preliminary DOJ proposal is less a highlight than a sign of things to come.
“It will give the plaintiffs in the other cases confidence that they can achieve victory against a formidable, dominant company in this field,” Kovacic said. “It shows that it is possible. You see people climbing the highest mountains and you think, ‘I can climb too.’”
Adam Cancryn contributed to this report.
