WASHINGTON (AP) — Colorado’s congressional delegation faces a reshuffling of the state’s primaries Tuesday, after a retirement, a resignation and a move left at least a third of the state’s population set to seek new representation in Washington next year to have.
Tuesday’s primaries will also lay the groundwork for a general election in which two competitive districts in Colorado could help determine control of the closely divided U.S. House of Representatives in November.
In the 3rd Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert faced a tough rematch against Democrat Adam Frisch, who came within 546 votes of unseating the congressman in 2022. However, when fellow Republican Ken Buck decided not to run in 2023 after his sixth term in the neighboring 4th Congressional District, Boebert opted to move east and run for Buck’s open seat, where Republicans enjoy a greater electoral advantage .
She now faces a crowded Republican primary field that includes state Reps. Mike Lynch and Richard Holtorf, conservative activist and talk radio host Deborah Flora, Logan County Commissioner and former Senate President Pro Tempore Jerry Sonnenberg and bank executive Peter Yu. Speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, Marine Corps veteran Ike McCorkle and engineer John Padora are running for the Democratic nomination.
Buck resigned from his seat in March, prompting a special general election to serve out the remaining six months of his term. The race will appear on the ballot in addition to the regularly scheduled primaries for the full semester.
Several of the candidates vying for the full-term seat also sought the Republican nomination to fill Buck’s vacancy, but a state Republican Party committee nominated former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, who is not running for a full term of office. He will face Democrat Calvarese and two third-party candidates.
Since her election in 2020, Boebert has become a polarizing figure due to her combative style and penchant for controversy. The past year has been particularly chaotic for Boebert’s personal life, with a messy divorce, her son’s arrest after a string of burglaries and thefts, a health crisis that required surgery for a blood clot and her highly publicized removal from a Denver theater. for causing a nuisance.
Despite the controversies, Boebert likely improved her chances for re-election by moving to a former-presidential district Donald Trump passed twice with almost 60% of the vote. She is at the forefront of fundraising and has the support of Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and the state party.
Back in Boebert’s former district, Frisch is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. He will face the winner of a crowded Republican primary that includes former state Rep. Ron Hanks, the state party’s favored candidate. Although Frisch came close to beating Boebert in 2022, the district still leans Republican. Voters there gave Trump 53% of the vote in 2016 and 2020.
Colorado’s most competitive race for the House of Representatives this fall will likely be in the 8th Congressional District, where first-term U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Her Republican opponent will be state Rep. Gabe Evans or former state Rep. Janak Joshi. Evans is an army veteran and former police officer, while Joshi is a retired doctor and has the endorsement of the state party.
Caraveo won her seat in 2022 with just 48% of the vote in this new district near Denver, Boulder and Fort Collins. Trump received 46% of the vote in this area in the last two presidential elections, enough to beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 but about 4 percentage points less than Joe Biden in 2020.
In the 5th Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn’s impending retirement after nine terms has created an opening for this Republican-friendly seat anchored in Colorado Springs. Political consultant and radio host Jeff Crank and state party chairman Dave Williams are running for the Republican nomination. Williams has the support of both Trump and the state party he leads.
Some Republicans, including Crank, have criticized Williams for using the state party apparatus to further his own congressional ambitions. The Democratic nominee will be River Gassen or Joe Reagan. Trump received 53% of the district’s votes in 2020 and 56% in 2016. Lamborn received 56% in his 2022 re-election.
Further down the ballot are the contentious primaries for the Senate and House of Representatives. About half of the 35 seats in the Senate and all 65 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election this year. Democrats enjoy approximately 2-1 majorities in both chambers.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primaries in the state of Colorado will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will release voting results and declare winners in 35 contests, including six contested primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, seven for the Senate, 18 for the State House, two state boards of education, one for the Board of Regents of the University of Colorado. and one special general election for the 4th Congressional District.
WHO CAN VOTE
Registered party members may only vote in the primaries of their own party. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries, and vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters can participate in the primaries of any party.
DECISION NOTES
By running for another seat, Boebert traded Colorado’s vast western district for the vast eastern district. In the 3rd District, the most influential counties in the election are Republican-friendly Mesa in the west, which includes Grand Junction, and Democratic-friendly Pueblo in the east. The candidate who carries both counties, as Boebert did in the 2020 primaries when she unseated incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Tipton, would be difficult to beat.
In Boebert’s new 4th District, the top county to win is Douglas, located between Denver and Colorado Springs. Douglas has by far the largest population in the district and will cast more than half of the votes in Buck’s re-election in 2022. A candidate behind Douglas would need overwhelming margins in the rest of the district to win. Douglas votes less Republican than the rest of the county, giving Trump about 52% of his votes in 2020, compared to about 60% to nearly 90% in other counties.
The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Colorado allows automatic recounts in races where the vote margin is 0.5% or less of the leader’s vote total. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What do attendance and presales look like?
As of June 1, there were nearly 4.5 million registered voters in Colorado. Of those, 26% were Democrats, 23% Republicans and about half were unaffiliated or independent.
In the 2022 primaries, turnout was 12% of registered voters in the Democratic primaries and 15% in the Republican primaries. Colorado conducts its elections primarily by mail.
As of Tuesday, a total of 449,721 votes had been cast, about 42% in the Democratic primaries and 41% in the Republican primaries. A total of 75,516 votes have already been cast in the 4th Congressional District special election.
How long does it usually take to count votes?
In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 9:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 4:05 a.m. ET with approximately 90% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there are 133 days until the November general election.
