WASHINGTON (AP) — Anti-Trump Republicans lost their standard-bearer in the Senate when Sen. Sen. Senate took the throne. Mitt Romney announced that he would not seek a second term. On Tuesday, Utah voters will decide whether a similar kind of politics can still succeed in the Republican primaries.
Even before Romney announced he would not run again, former House Speaker Brad Wilson had formed an exploratory committee and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs joined the primary. Both emphasized their support for the former president Donald Trump. US representative John Curtis has also entered the race and is widely seen as the candidate best positioned to win the crowded primary.
Primary voters in Utah will also choose candidates for governor, the U.S. House of Representatives and the state legislature.
Curtis leads in most public polls for the Senate race, but Staggs has the support of Trump and the Republican Party after winning the most votes at the state convention. Wilson has a financial advantage because he loaned his campaign $3 million. Jason Walton, who presents himself as a Trump-style businessman, is also a candidate.
Curtis has reiterated that he would vote for the former Republican president, but his main opponents have criticized him for his lukewarm embrace of Trump. But while competing for Trump’s support is crucial in red districts and states, Utah is different. The most conservative candidates, while embraced by the state party, are often rejected by voters.
Winning a nominating convention in Utah means a candidate’s name will appear on the primary ballot, but candidates can also submit signatures to appear on the ballot. While the nominating convention traditionally rewards the party’s most loyal members, it does not have a strong track record of selecting the eventual nominee. In 2018, Romney lost the state convention to Senator Mike Kennedy. However, in the primaries, Romney defeated Kennedy by more than 40 percentage points.
Governor Spencer Cox, who is running for another term, was booed at this year’s nominating convention. The state party backed Phil Lyman, who has backed Trump’s false claims of election fraud during his 2020 presidential election loss to Democrat Joe Biden. While Cox may be considered too moderate for state delegates, he is still favored to win Tuesday’s primary.
An exception to that rule was Rep. Celeste Maloy, who won last year’s primary in a special election after finishing first at the nominating convention. That victory, which was a disappointment, made the little-known congressional staffer a front-runner for the nomination. She was sworn in to the House of Representatives in November.
In her race for a full term this year, however, Maloy lost the nominating convention to Colby Jenkins, who has the support of Sen. Mike Lee. Still, Maloy has a major advantage in fundraising and Trump’s support.
Trump has not endorsed a candidate for Curtis’ open seat in the 3rd Congressional District. Kennedy, who lost to Romney in 2018, received the state party’s endorsement at the April convention. He faces State Auditor John Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, owner of the Case Lawrence trampoline park empire, and attorney Stewart Peay, who is backed by his wife’s uncle, Romney.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primaries will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 8:00 PM local time, or 10:00 PM ET.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will cover 34 elections, including primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, attorney general, state auditor, Senate, State House and State Board of Education.
WHO CAN VOTE
In Utah, political parties choose what type of primaries they want to hold. For Tuesday’s state primaries, the Democratic primary is open to all voters, while the Republican primary is only open to registered Republican voters.
DECISION NOTES
The 3rd Congressional District covers the eastern part of the state and extends from the winter resorts of Park City, south to Provo and southeast to Moab. Kennedy represents a district in the state Senate based in Alpine, between Salt Lake City and Provo. Bird is running as the candidate who represents rural voters. He is mayor of Roosevelt, a city in Duchesne County in northeastern Utah. Wilson’s former legislative district was in Davis County, northwest of Salt Lake City.
The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
There is no provision for an automatic recount in Utah, although the state will pay for a recount requested by a candidate if the margin between the top two candidates is 0.25 percentage points or less.
The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What do attendance and presales look like?
As of June 13, there were 1,969,880 registered voters in Utah. Of those, 14% were Democrats and 50% Republicans.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate race, turnout was 22% of the approximately 1.9 million registered voters in the Republican primary. In the 3rd Congressional District, turnout was 29% of the approximately 113,000 voters in the 2022 Republican primary.
Utah conducts its elections entirely through mail-in ballots.
As of June 20, a total of 180,599 voters had cast ballots before Election Day, approximately 12% in the Democratic primaries and 87% in the Republican primaries.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2022 Republican Senate primaries, the AP first reported results at 10:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 1:46 a.m. ET with approximately 83% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there are 133 days until the November general election.
___
Associated Press writer Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City contributed to this report.
___
Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
