Home Politics What happens if Trump is convicted in a hush money trial?

What happens if Trump is convicted in a hush money trial?

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What happens if Trump is convicted in a hush money trial?

Thirty-four indictments, twelve jurors, an often irritated judge and a parade of witnesses.

After almost five weeks, both the prosecution and defense have delved into Donald Trump’s history of making hush money cases.

Closing arguments will begin on Tuesday, after which the jury will begin deliberating. After that, it is anyone’s guess when they will return and what they will decide.

But if he is found guilty on just one count — just one of a few possible outcomes — Trump would become the first former U.S. president with a criminal conviction, and the first major party candidate to run for the White House as a felon.

Here are some important issues to consider if a guilty verdict is reached.

What happens if a guilty verdict is found?

Trump has been out on bail throughout the trial. If the verdict is guilty, he will likely still be able to leave court a free man until Judge Juan Merchan schedules a sentencing hearing.

The judge will have several factors to consider when sentencing, including Trump’s age (77), lack of a prior conviction and possibly his violations of the court’s gag orders.

The penalty may include a fine, probation or supervision, or possibly jail time.

Trump’s team can use Stormy Daniels’ testimony as grounds for an appeal [Getty Images]

Trump would almost certainly appeal a guilty verdict, a process that could take months or even longer.

His legal team would then have to deal with the Appellate Division in Manhattan, and possibly the Court of Appeals.

All this means that Trump is highly unlikely to leave the court in handcuffs, and is expected to remain out on bail while he appeals.

What would be the reasons for appealing?

The evidence of adult film star Stormy Daniels, whose alleged sexual encounter with Trump is at the heart of the case, could be one reason.

“The level of detail that was provided [by Ms Daniels] is really not necessary to tell the story,” says Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School.

“On the one hand, her details make her credible and as a prosecutor you want to give enough details so that the jury believes what she has to say. On the other hand, there is a line at which it can become irrelevant and harmful.”

Trump’s defense team twice called for a mistrial during Ms. Daniels’ testimony, requests that were denied by the judge.

Could Trump go to jail?

It is possible, but highly unlikely, that Trump will serve a prison sentence in the event of a guilty verdict.

The 34 charges he faces are all Class E felonies in New York, the lowest level in the state. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of four years.

There are several reasons why Judge Merchan could opt for a lesser sentence, including Trump’s age, lack of prior convictions and the fact that the charge involves a non-violent crime.

It’s also possible that the judge would weigh the unprecedented nature of the case, and perhaps choose not to put a former president and current candidate behind bars.

Most observers say Trump is unlikely to receive a prison sentence [Getty Images]

There is also a question about practical feasibility. Trump, like all former presidents, is entitled to lifelong protection from the Secret Service. This means that some officers have to protect him in prison.

Still, in all likelihood, it would be extremely difficult to run a prison system with a former president as an inmate. It would be a huge safety risk and expensive to keep him safe.

“Prison systems are focused on two things: the security of the institution and keeping costs down,” said Justin Paperny, director of the prison consultancy White Collar Advice.

With Mr. Trump, “it would be a freak show… no director would allow it,” he said.

Could he still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets relatively few eligibility requirements for presidential candidates: they must be at least 35 years old, be a “natural-born” US citizen and have lived in the US for at least 14 years. There are no rules blocking candidates with a criminal record.

But a guilty verdict could still impact November’s presidential election. A Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll earlier this year found that 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republican if he were convicted.

Another poll from Quinnipiac University this month found that 6% of Trump voters were less likely to vote for him — a consequence of such a tight race.

Could he forgive himself?

No. Presidents can pardon those who have committed federal offenses. The New York hush money case is a state matter, meaning it would be beyond Trump’s reach if he were to run for president again.

The same goes for Trump’s case in Georgia, where he is accused of a criminal conspiracy to overturn his narrow defeat to President Joe Biden in the state during the 2020 election. This case is currently on appeal.

Pardon authority is unclear for Trump’s two federal cases — one involving alleged mishandling of classified documents, and the other involving conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election.

In the first case, a Trump-appointed judge in Florida postponed the trial indefinitely, saying setting a date before resolving questions about evidence would be “imprudent.” The second open federal case was also postponed while an appeal by Mr. Trump is pending.

Neither will happen before the November election, but even if they did, constitutional scholars disagree on whether the president’s power to pardon includes himself. Trump could be the first to try.

With reporting from Madeline Halpert and Kayla Epstein

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