Tropical Depression 19 is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today, but what impact will the storm have on Sarasota-Bradenton? National Weather Service forecasters say the storm is not likely to become a major hurricane, but it is too early to tell.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the storm’s path, but right now Sarasota-Bradenton can expect an inch of rain next week, said National Weather Service forecaster Austin Flannery. There are also expected to be rough waves and strong currents on the beaches.
The system should move back over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. As the frontal boundary approaches, speed will increase and quickly cross the Gulf of Mexico. The worst weather is expected Thursday, Flannery said.
“It would be unwise to speculate too much about what the intensity will look like,” Flannery said. “It will depend on what it looks like when it leaves Yucatán. As the season has shown us time and time again, systems can organize themselves quickly.”
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The storm will interact heavily with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. The area’s mountains will eliminate the warm water’s main energy source, Flannery said. The storm is expected to remain weak and disorganized as it moves through Central America.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the storm, Flannery asked residents to continue monitoring the storm and develop a hurricane plan, especially given the impacts of recent storms such as Hurricane Milton and Helene.
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The storm is expected to move through the Gulf of Mexico, but its origins are uncertain. Flannery added that a cold front dropping over the northern Gulf next week could cause the storm system to make a right turn and head toward the Florida peninsula.
“When it comes to storm intensity, predicting is one of the hardest things to do,” Flannery said. “It could be rain and nothing else.”
When is the storm expected to have an impact?
The system should move back over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. As the frontal boundary approaches, the speed will increase and move rapidly across the Gulf of Mexico. The worst weather is expected on Thursday.
What intensity is expected?
Flannery said Tropical Storm Sara is not expected to be another Milton. He doubts the storm will turn into a major hurricane that will hit the west coast of Florida.
It is rare to see a storm this late in the season.
With hurricane season ending Nov. 30, the storm’s location and path is unusual to say the least, Flannery said. Storms that develop in November usually end up on Florida’s east coast and meander toward the open Atlantic Ocean, Flannery said.
“For a storm to be this far south and west is definitely unusual and quite rare,” Flannery said.
Are conditions favorable for Sara to develop into a stronger storm?
The water is not as warm as earlier in the storm season, but it could still potentially support a stronger storm, Flannery said. It is possible that colder water beneath the warmer surface water will lower the water temperature as the waves become stronger, making it more difficult for the storm to develop. Although less energy is available compared to previous storms, the conditions could maintain a tropical system, Flannery said. Some reinforcement could occur if the country pushes into the Gulf of Mexico.
What weather can Sarasota-Bradenton expect?
Here’s what the National Weather Service predicts.
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Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming south-southwest in the afternoon.
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Thursday evening: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. West southwest wind around 8 mph.
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Friday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
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Friday evening: Clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
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Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80 degrees. Northeast wind 11 to 21 km/hour.
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Saturday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph.
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Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind 10 to 14 mph.
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Sunday evening: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East wind 6 to 13 mph.
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Monday: Sunny, with a high near 83. East southeast wind around 11 mph.
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Monday evening: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
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Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Windy.
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Tuesday evening: 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Windy.
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Wednesday: 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Windy.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Tropical Storm Sara’s expected impact on Sarasota, Bradenton unclear
