The just-concluded European Union elections were another milestone for far-right parties on the continent. They made gains in many of the EU’s 27 countries, and the surprising scale of their victories is roiling the political establishment there and drawing attention in the United States.
The parties’ success embarrassed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by outpacing his party and prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call early parliamentary elections.
While votes continued to be counted on Tuesday, the right’s gains are just the latest example of how dissatisfaction with globalization and immigration has fueled a conservative, populist backlash in prosperous Western democracies. Former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was the strongest example of this, but it is unclear whether the trends driving the right in Europe will allow him to win another term in November.
That’s because, in addition to the striking parallels, there are important differences between the dynamics in Europe and the US. Even with the right’s gains in the most recent European elections there, the political center is likely to still retain control of the EU parliament.
“We’re clearly at one of those points where the wind can blow in either direction,” said Charlies A. Kupchan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
WHAT DID THE LAW IN EUROPE DO?
All countries of the EU have different political dynamics, and EU parliamentary elections are often an opportunity for voters in each country to cast a symbolic vote against those in power in their own country, as they vote for people who will come to power in the future. Brussels instead of their own capital. There is also a global backlash against the incumbents, which appears to have no ideological basis.
But the resurgence of the right in Europe is more than symbolic or arbitrary. It is made possible by frustration over the EU’s migrant crisis – frustration that the right is keen to amplify on online platforms – and by regulations on climate change and other issues that are seen as hitting less educated rural residents harder. Economic growth in much of Europe has stagnated since the 2008 global recession, further fueling dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Far-right or populist parties now lead Italy and Slovakia and are part of ruling coalitions in other countries such as Finland, Sweden and soon the Netherlands.
In general, the strongest support for the right on the continent comes from rural voters who have lower levels of education than urban voters and who are more comfortable with the economic and social changes of globalization. All this probably sounds very familiar to American voters, where there have been similar divisions between Trump’s Republicans and President Joe Biden’s Democrats.
IS TRUMP RIDING THE SAME WAVE?
Trump has embraced the European right, especially Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose self-described “illiberal democracy” has made him an icon for conservative populists who believe in restricting immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. He has supported several European conservative populists in their quest for national leadership, and some of Trump’s top advisers have ties to the movement across the Atlantic.
One of those former advisers, Steve Bannon, called the EU elections “a tectonic plate shift” on his podcast on Monday.
“It’s just like here in the United States, that’s what MAGA does,” Bannon said, using the acronym for Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. “MAGA is pulling us further to the right. And I think that’s not just a good thing, it’s necessary for the nation and necessary for the world.”
Trump’s 2016 victory, despite losing the popular vote, was secured in part by promising to build a wall between the US and Mexico to limit immigration. This year, he has criticized Biden over the surge of migrants crossing the southern border and seeking asylum in the US. Recognizing the potential of the problem, Biden has rectified immigration by issuing new rules to close the border if the number of border crossings is too high.
However, there are some important differences between Trump and the European populists, the most important of which are their record on democracy. Trump attempted to reverse his loss to Biden in 2020, culminating in the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol. He has embraced that cause in his campaign to win back office, continuing to repeat the lie that widespread fraud prevented him from re-election and calling those who stormed the Capitol during a rally in Las Vegas “warriors” on Sunday.
Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist and co-author of “How Democracies Die,” said this is in stark contrast to European populists.
“They are much less overtly authoritarian than Trump,” Levitsky said. “None of these guys rejected the election results.”
That has been a political vulnerability for Trump, who continues to make false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Biden attacked him mercilessly on January 6 and has indicated that he will make preserving democracy the core of his campaign. Trump supporters targeted state election offices lost in every swing state in 2022, and Democrats are hoping the same dynamic will protect Biden this year.
Kupchan said Trump voters may be angrier and more desperate than their European counterparts because of that continent’s robust social safety net.
“One of the reasons the center has held in Europe and not in the US is that the Americans have yet to fall further,” he said. “If you’re a worker in Europe and you lost your job on a VW production line, you’re hurting, but you’re not in as much trouble as someone in Michigan.”
The strongest support for Trump was among older voters, in contrast to the European populists who, according to experts, are doing better among younger voters. And in the American two-party system, the current elections come down to a game of chicken with voters, who will have to choose Biden or Trump. The race could come down to who is least distasteful to voters and whether third-party candidates who cannot gain any political power in the race will pull away enough votes to doom either of the two major party candidates.
It is far from inevitable that Trump will win. Just look at Europe and see that conservative populism has its limits.
THE RIGHT CAN ONLY GO SO FAR
There have been limits to the achievements of the right in Europe. Last year, Poland’s conservative populist government lost power when voters opted for a center-left coalition. The United Kingdom left the EU in a victory for conservative populism, but the conservative Tory party is expected to suffer a major defeat in the upcoming elections, even if the opposition Labor party has no intention of reversing Brexit.
Even in the heart of conservative populism in Europe, Hungary, dissatisfaction with the incumbent government has increased.
In places where the right has seized power, such as Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party has doubled its membership in the EU parliament, there has been no radical break. Meloni has kept her country as part of the coalition supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Although she has cracked down on allowing migrants crossing the Mediterranean into the country, she and her neo-fascist-rooted Brothers of Italy party have not made fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure.
Matthias Matthish, professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said Italy could be an example of how populists will govern in Europe.
“They are going to be stricter on Muslim prayers and you can now drive faster on the highway,” said Matthish. “But when it comes to the big issues – the budget, foreign policy – these populists can only come to power by staying in the center.”
That stands in contrast to Trump, who has embraced notable shifts in U.S. policy and the way the federal government could operate if he wins. Some analysts believe that a Trump victory could give European populists like Meloni permission to shift further to the right.
Even after the EU elections, radical change is unlikely. EU President Ursula von der Leyen’s Christian Democrats have moved to the right to counter the populist wave, and remain by far the largest party in the 720-member body. The center still holds in Europe – it has simply shifted to the right. The next question is whether that will happen in the US in November.
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Associated Press writes Ali Swenson in New York contributed to this report.
