WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in New Mexico will be among the last to cast ballots for presidential candidates when the state holds its presidential and state primaries on Tuesday.
That day includes the last four contests on the Republican side and is the penultimate presidential primary on the Democratic side. Both parties have had their presumptive nominees: former President Donald Trump on the Republican side and president Joe Biden on the Democratic side – since mid-March.
New Mexico voted reliably Democratic in the recent presidential election, but the downballot contests were more competitive.
In 2022, Democrats won all three of New Mexico’s congressional districts, helped by a new map that shifted a Republican-leaning district to the left. In the fall, the most closely watched district will be the Second District, a swing seat along the Mexican border where first-term Rep. Gabe Vasquez faces a rematch against the incumbent president he defeated, former Rep. Yvette Herrell. Herrell is uncontested in the Republican primaries.
The only contested U.S. House primary is on the Republican side, in the 1st District. Businessman Louie Sanchez and accountant Steve Jones are running in Albuquerque, the state’s most Democratic district. The winner will face incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury, who has represented the district since winning a 2021 special election to succeed current Interior Secretary Deb Haaland.
The ballot also includes 19 contested Senate primaries and 22 contested House primaries. All 42 Senate seats and 70 state House seats are up for election this year, but many of the primaries are uncontested.
Here’s a look at what to expect on election night:
PRIMARY DAY
The New Mexico state and presidential primaries will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will cover the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, one U.S. House of Representatives primary and 41 state legislative primaries.
The Democratic vote includes Biden, Marianne Williamson and a free option.
The Republican ballot includes Trump, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and an uncommitted option. Tuesday marks Trump’s first primary since he became the first former US president to be convicted of a crime.
WHO CAN VOTE
New Mexico has a closed primary system, meaning that only voters registered with a political party are allowed to participate in that party’s primaries. Democrats are not allowed to vote in Republican primaries and vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary election.
DELEGATED ASSIGNMENT RULES
New Mexico’s 34 pledged Democratic delegates will be allocated according to standard national party rules. Seven at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are four PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” A total of 23 delegates are at stake for the state’s three congressional districts, allocated in proportion to the voting results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for statewide delegates and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.
There are 22 delegates at stake in the Republican presidential election. Since the Republican primaries take place within 45 days of the Republican National Convention, the delegates are considered unattached. However, a spokesperson for the state party told the AP that the party expects delegates to the convention to vote in accordance with the results of the presidential primaries.
DECISION NOTES
In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are the favorites in their primaries as neither candidate faces credible challenges. Early indications of them winning statewide at a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year could be enough to determine the statewide winners. There is an organized protest vote against Biden in New Mexico, which may be strongest in and around the cities of Santa Fe and Albuquerque. If there are anti-Trump votes, they will likely be most evident in the same areas, as Haley’s best performances in this year’s campaign have come from Democratic areas of states.
The 1st District includes all of Torrance County and parts of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Santa Fe and Valencia counties. The majority of the district’s votes are concentrated in and around Albuquerque, with about three-quarters of those votes falling within the district.
The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
In New Mexico, federal races with a vote margin of 0.25 percentage points or less are subject to an automatic recount. State legislative races are subject to a mandatory recount if the margin is within 0.5 percentage points. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
WHAT DO TURNOUT AND FRONT VOTES LOOK LIKE
As of April 30, there were 1,336,178 registered voters in New Mexico. Of those, 43% were Democrats and 31% were Republicans.
In the 2022 primaries, turnout was 9% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 10% in the Republican primary for the 1st Congressional District.
As of May 29, a total of 71,258 voters had cast their ballots before Election Day. About 61% of votes were cast in the Democratic primaries and 38% in the Republican primaries.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 9:11 p.m. ET, or 11 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 2:50 a.m. ET with approximately 99% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there are 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the November general election.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
