WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will choose a successor Wednesday to the late Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr., who died in April after more than 11 years in office.
Running to replace him are Democrat LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark City Council, Republican Carmen Bucco, a small business owner, and two minor party candidates. McIver won a crowded and sometimes contentious 11-way primary on July 16, while Bucco had no opponent for the Republican nomination.
The winner will serve out the remaining 15 weeks of Payne’s term. Payne posthumously won the Democratic nomination for a seventh full term in the state primary on June 4, and New Jersey party officials named McIver to replace him on the general election ballot if she wins the special primary. Bucco will be on the November ballot as the Republican nominee, along with four minor-party candidates who are not running in the special election.
Democrats hold a significant electoral advantage in the 10th District. President Joe Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both won the district in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections with more than 80% of the vote.
The state has struggled with two other vacancies in recent weeks. Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez resigned Aug. 20 after his conviction on federal bribery charges. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy appointed his former chief of staff George Helmy to fill the seat until voters choose a replacement in November. In the 9th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell died Aug. 21, and party officials in the district chose Sen. Nellie Pou to replace him on the November ballot.
As for why the special election to replace Payne is being held on a Wednesday instead of the usual Tuesday, the answer lies deep in the fine print of New Jersey election law. When a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives becomes vacant in New Jersey, the governor can order a special election to fill the seat or allow it to be filled in the state’s next general election.
If the governor orders a special election, the special primary must be held within 70 to 76 days of the date the governor issues the order. The special general election must be held between 64 and 70 days after the special primary. Payne died on April 24, and Murphy issued his special election order nine days later, on May 3. He set the special primary for July 16, the only Tuesday within the legally allowed date range. For the special general election, Murphy chose the earliest date allowed by law: 64 days after the special primary, or September 18, which happens to fall on a Wednesday. New Jersey also held a Wednesday election in 2013 to replace the late U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg.
Here’s what to expect on election night:
Special Election Day
The special election in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district will be held Wednesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will announce the vote results and declare a winner in the special congressional election. The candidates are McIver, Bucco and third-party candidates Russell Jenkins and Rayfield Morton.
Who can vote?
Any voter registered in the 10th Congressional District may participate in the special election.
Decision notes
In midterm elections, turnout is typically low, especially if there are no other major elections on the ballot to attract voters.
The 10th Congressional District includes parts of three counties just west of New York City: Essex (home to Newark), Hudson (home to Jersey City) and Union. Essex is the dominant player in the 10th District elections, accounting for 57% of the district-wide population, compared to about 24% for Union and 19% for Hudson.
In the 2022 general election, Payne won the district with about 78% of the vote. The Republican candidate, David Pinckney, received 20% of the vote. Payne did best in Essex County, with 85% of the vote, and worst in Union County, where he received 66% of the vote to Pinckney’s 32%.
Early indications that McIver is winning districtwide at a level that matches the overwhelming margins the incumbent has won in other district races could be enough to determine the winner. Likewise, if early results show Bucco significantly outperforming previous Republican candidates in district races, a race call could be delayed until more ballot results are available.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has yet been declared and explain why.
While New Jersey does not have automatic recounts, candidates and voters can request and pay for them, with the cost reimbursed if the outcome changes. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What is the turnout and how early is voting allowed?
As of August 1, nearly 504,000 voters were registered in the 10th District, with about 54% Democrats, 9% Republicans and 36% independents who did not affiliate with any party.
In the 2022 general election, turnout in the district was about 27% of registered voters, with about 21% of voters casting ballots before Election Day. Turnout in the July 16 special Democratic primary was about 6% of registered voters.
Nearly 14,000 votes had been cast before Election Day on Wednesday, with about 82% of them from Democrats, 9% from Republicans and 9% from independents who are not affiliated with a party.
How long does it usually take to count the votes?
In the July 16 special primary, the AP first reported results at 8:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 10:36 p.m. ET with about 86% of the total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Wednesday, there are 48 days left until the general election in November.
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