WASHINGTON (AP) — Arizona is already expected to play a pivotal role in the race for the White House, as it did in 2020, but the state’s primary elections Tuesday will set the stage for competitive battles that could determine control of the closely divided U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and both chambers of the state Legislature.
The Republican primary in the race to replace the U.S. senator tops the ballot on Tuesday. Kyrsten Sinemawho was elected as a Democrat in 2018 but became an independent in 2022 after years of working against her party on key votes. Sinema had a tough road to re-election after U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego launched her bid for the Democratic nomination in 2023, raising the specter of a three-party primary in the competitive swing state. She announced in March that she would not seek a second term. Gallego is unopposed in Tuesday’s primary.
In the Republican primary, former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is facing off against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and neuroscientist Elizabeth Reye. Lake launched her campaign in October while still disputing the results of her failed bid for governor and has largely looked beyond the primaries, skipping a debate and focusing her campaign message on Gallego and President Joe BidenShe has outpaced the competition in fundraising and received the support of former President Donald Trump.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats hope to defeat two vulnerable Republican representatives from Arizona in districts that Biden narrowly won in 2020 when he defeated Trump.
In the 1st Congressional District, seven-term Rep. David Schweikert is the front-runner in his Republican primary against businessman Robert Backie and former FBI agent and corporate investigator Kim George. The field of Democratic contenders includes former state party chairman and 2010 state treasurer nominee Andrei Cherny, former local news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, orthodontist Andrew Horne, former American Red Cross regional CEO Kurt Kroemer, investment banker Conor O’Callaghan and former state Rep. Amish Shah.
Schweikert led both fields in campaign fundraising, with Cherny raising the most among Democrats through the end of June. O’Callaghan began the month with slightly more money in the bank than Cherny, thanks in large part to the $905,000 he loaned his campaign.
Cherny, a former Clinton White House speechwriter, has the support of the former president and Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego. Gallán-Woods’ endorsements include former Gov. and Obama Administration Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Attorney General Kris Mayes and Rep. Raúl Grijalva of the 7th Congressional District. O’Callaghan has endorsements from three members of Congress outside Arizona and “Grey’s Anatomy” actress Kate Walsh.
In the 6th Congressional District, Rep. Juan Ciscomani must survive two rematches before he can claim a second term. First, he must fend off a challenge from fellow party member Kathleen Winn, who finished third in the 2022 primary for the seat. If he wins the primary as expected, he will face off again against Democrat Kirsten Engel, who won more than 49% of the vote against Ciscomani in 2022.
The remaining constituencies in Arizona tend to be less competitive, although some districts have notable primaries.
In the 2nd Congressional District, first-term Republican Rep. Eli Crane faces a challenge from Jack Smith, a former member of the Yavapai County Board of Supervisors. Crane was one of eight Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives who voted to unseat Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as Speaker in 2023. Crane’s fellow Republican Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, in the 5th Congressional District, also voted to unseat McCarthy but is unopposed in his primary.
In the state legislature, Republicans hold the narrowest majorities in both chambers. In the general election, Democrats will attempt to take control of the state Senate for the first time since 1992 and the state House for the first time since 1966, the last time the party controlled the governorship and both chambers simultaneously.
Tuesday’s primary was originally scheduled for Aug. 6, but the Legislature changed the date to give counties more time to count votes in the event of an automatic recount.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
Primary day
Arizona’s primary election is Tuesday. All polls close at 7 p.m. local time, meaning most of the state will close at 10 p.m. ET. Voting results won’t be available until 11 p.m. ET. Unlike most of the state, the Navajo Nation is observing Daylight Savings Time, so polls there will close at 9 p.m. ET, impacting parts of three counties in the 2nd Congressional District.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, State Senate, State House of Representatives and several local offices: district attorney, county clerk and county supervisor in Maricopa County and district attorney and sheriff in Pima County.
Who can vote?
Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primaries. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in both primaries.
Decision notes
The most crucial county in Arizona’s elections is Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Mesa and which delivered more than 60% of the vote in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Pima County was a distant second, with just under 16% of the vote.
Eight of Arizona’s nine congressional districts include parts of Maricopa County, with the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 8th districts within its boundaries. Crane’s 2nd Congressional District includes only a small portion of Maricopa. Instead, Yavapai, Pinal and Coconino are typically the decisive counties in that district. Ciscomani’s 6th District is the only congressional seat not affected by the Maricopa vote. Pima County is the largest source of votes there.
In the state House of Representatives primaries, voters will select up to two candidates, and the AP will announce two winners in each contest. The AP will count the write-in votes cast in the Republican primary for the state’s 29th House District, which could delay the determination of the winner.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has been declared and explain why.
In Arizona, recounts are automatically conducted if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the margin is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What is the turnout and how early is voting allowed?
In April, there were nearly 4.1 million registered voters in Arizona. Of those, about 35% were Republican and 29% were Democrats.
In the 2022 primary, turnout was nearly 13% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and about 18% in the Republican primary. Arizona has an “Active Early Voting List” program where eligible voters automatically receive a ballot in the mail. About 93% of Democratic primary voters and 79% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots by Primary Day in 2022.
As of Tuesday, nearly 696,000 votes had been cast in the primary, about 45% in the Democratic primary and about 54% in the Republican primary.
How long does it usually take to count the votes?
In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 11:01 p.m. ET, about a minute after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 7:11 a.m. ET with about 77% of the total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there are 98 days left until the November general election.
