WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Rick Scott’s bid for a second term in the Senate tops the list of races that Florida voters will decide in Tuesday’s primary.
Scott is among the top 10 challengers against John Columbus, an actor and former Walt Disney World entertainer, and Keith Gross, an attorney who twice ran for the Georgia House of Representatives as a Democrat but now supports Donald Trump.
Gross said in a 2023 interview that he was willing to spend $20 million to $30 million of his own money to defeat Scott. Federal campaign finance records show Gross loaned or donated $2.4 million to his campaign and had about $13,000 in the bank as of July 31. Scott had nearly $3.9 million in the bank and raised more than $30 million over the course of the campaign. Columbus trailed both candidates far behind in campaign financing.
In the Democratic primary, former U.S. Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leads a field of four candidates in fundraising. Powell’s main opponent was retired Navy commander Phil Ehr, but he withdrew from the race in October. Ehr is now running for the House seat that Mucarsel-Powell lost to Republican Carlos Gimenez in 2020.
Mucarsel-Powell has raised $14.4 million and started the month with $4.4 million in the bank, far outpacing her other primary opponents.
Democrats face a tough task in the Senate as they defend vulnerable seats across the country in a year.
If Trump wins the White House, Republicans would need just one net gain to regain control of the chamber, and they would almost certainly end up in West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. The Florida race gives Democrats one of their few chances to go on the offensive against a Republican incumbent.
Scott is not only looking beyond the primaries to his expected battle with Mucarsel-Powell, but he is also strategizing about a new role in the next Senate. In May, he said he would run for Senate Republican leader to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Florida voters will also decide 30 contested primaries for the House of Representatives.
In the 8th Congressional District, three Republicans and two Democrats are running to replace Republican Bill Posey, who is retiring after eight terms. Former State Senate President Mike Haridopolos is the best-known and best-funded candidate in the Republican field. He is running against Joe Babits, a lawyer and former Security and Exchange Commission official, and John Hearton, a former technology company executive.
The Democratic candidate will be either attorney Sandy Kennedy or Daniel McDown, a member of West Melbourne City Council. Trump won the heavily Republican district twice with 58% of the vote.
Democrats and Republicans each hold five contested primaries in the Senate. Thirty-five primaries in the House of Representatives are contested. Half of Florida’s 40 Senate seats and all 120 of the state’s House seats are up for election. Republicans hold more than 2-to-1 majorities in both chambers.
A look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Primary day
The last polls close at 8 p.m. EDT, although polls in most states close at 7 p.m. EDT.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, state Senate, state House of Representatives and several attorney general and public defender positions.
Who can vote?
Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.
Decision notes
Florida was once the nation’s leading state in national elections, but has tilted to the right since the 2000 presidential election. Registered Democrats have outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least 50 years, starting in the early 1970s. Republicans overtook Democrats in registration after the 2020 election, and that advantage grew to about 1 million voters in August.
Although Democrat Joe Biden won 48% of the vote in Florida in 2020, his then-reelection campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said in a June podcast interview that Florida was not a swing state, even though an April campaign memo described an “opening in Florida.” She is now with Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.
Key areas for the state elections include the Gold Coast counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, as well as counties along the so-called I-4 Corridor, including Hillsborough and Orange County, home to Tampa and Orlando, respectively.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has yet been declared and explain why.
Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What is the turnout and how early is voting allowed?
There were about 13.6 million registered voters in Florida as of Wednesday. Of those, 32% were Democrats, 39% Republicans and 26% independents with no party affiliation.
In the 2022 midterm elections, turnout was about 11% of registered voters in the Democratic primary. About 72% of the votes in that election were cast before primary day. Republicans did not have statewide primaries that year.
As of Thursday, more than 347,000 votes had been cast before Primary Day, about 40% in the Democratic primary and 47% in the Republican primary. About three-quarters of the votes cast before Primary Day were by mail, with the remainder cast early in person. Slightly more Democrats than Republicans cast their votes by mail, while Republicans cast about two-thirds of the early in-person votes. The early voting period began on August 10 and ends on Saturday.
How long does it usually take to count the votes?
In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:01 p.m. EDT, or one minute after the first polls closed. The election night count ended at 1:14 a.m. ET with about 99.9% of the total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there are 77 days left until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
