Voters in former Rep. Kevin McCarthy‘s district has until Tuesday to select his replacement.
The winner will serve in Congress for the next seven months and gain the incumbent advantage for the Nov. 5 general election. He could be sworn in at any time, from within a week to more than a month from now.
Will elect California’s 20th Congressional District Vince Fong, the hometown Bakersfield Assemblyman who followed in the footsteps of his former bosses? Or the affable Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, who spent his entire career in law enforcement in Tulare County?
Both Fong and Boudreaux are Republicans who advocate increased border security, no new taxes and stronger local water supplies and energy production. Fong, a McCarthy protege who was once a top aide in Congress, is considered a strong favorite.
“I don’t know of many — I mean, if any — policies where they differ in any material respect,” said Tal Eslick, a San Joaquin Valley consultant who knows Fong from their time in various Republican parties. congressmen.
The difference lies in experiences and McCarthy’s influence. Fong has a great advantage in terms of ancestry, foundation and finances. This should be especially clear in elections that are expected to have low turnout.
“It’s clearly a race between Republicans and Republicans. So I think it benefits those who have had the resources to actually communicate aggressively with voters,” Eslick said. “And that’s Vince.”
McCarthy’s chosen successor
Fong, R-Bakersfield, is McCarthy’s chosen successor in the area represented by powerful Republican members of Congress for more than four decades.
McCarthy left Congress in December, two months after resigning as speaker of the House of Representatives, a role he long coveted and held for nine months.
McCarthy won the seat in 2007 after the retirement of his former boss, Rep. Bill Thomas, then chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, which writes legislation on tax policy, trade, Social Security and other major issues.
Fong, 44, worked for both. He served as McCarthy’s district director for nearly a decade and began his political career as an aide to Thomas, who was first elected to Congress in 1978.
“Vince — while very different personality-wise from Kevin, and certainly very different from Bill Thomas — is super effective in his own regard,” Eslick said.
“And he has a long history as an elected official, which is always helpful as you continue in that role,” he added, “but I would say what sets him apart is that he was a staffer for a member of Congress. for a number of years.”
Kern County Base
Fong receives campaign support from McCarthy fundraisers, consultants and affiliated PACs. He secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement close to every primary — a valuable asset in California’s 20th, the state’s most Republican congressional district, where 47% of registered voters are Republicans and 27% are Democrats.
The 20th covers parts of Kern, Kings, Fresno and Tulare counties.
Fong led both the March 5 and March 19 primaries. He led in Kern and Fresno counties, while Boudreaux, 57, led in Tulare and Kings.
Boudreaux has been sheriff of Tulare County for more than a decade, starting there as a law enforcement cadet at age 19. He currently serves as president of the California State Sheriffs’ Association.
Fong has represented the area that is now the 32nd Assembly District since 2016 and is the top Republican on the powerful Budget Committee. He must resign his seat in the Assembly to become a member of Congress.
Born and raised in Bakersfield, Fong is based in Kern County, giving him an advantage where most of the district’s voters live.
More than half of mail-in ballots in the May 21 runoff were issued to people living in Kern County, California’s secretary of state’s office said. Fresno County is home to just over a quarter of the district’s voters. Tulare and Kings counties together have 21%.
Fundraising benefit
Fong has raised nearly $1.48 million this election cycle to Boudreaux’s more than $423,000, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on May 9. The Assemblyman spent about $1.44 million to the sheriff’s $370,000.
An independent expenditure organization fueled by McCarthy allies, the Central Valley Values PAC, spent more than $650,000 on mailers, text messages and digital ads ahead of the March primary to boost Fong, bash Boudreaux and Elevate Democratic challenger.
It spent nearly $160,000 to back Fong for the May runoff, according to FEC reports dated May 18.
A Democratic challenger in the May runoff and November elections would have given Fong an easier victory in the deep-red district. But Boudreaux survived both primaries.
The two Republicans are expected to face off again in the Nov. 5 general election for a two-year term beginning in January 2025.
Elections with low turnout
Fatigue among those who typically vote and little interest in this offseason election among those who are less involved indicate low turnout.
According to Weber’s office, about 12% of mail-in ballots had been returned by last Thursday, five days before Election Day.
Eslick said the March 5 and March 19 ballots mailed around the same time likely helped boost turnout for the special primary. As summer approaches, interest has waned.
“I think this will be a shockingly low turnout,” Eslick said.
Polls open at 7 a.m. Pacific Time on May 21 and close at 8 p.m. Polls also close at 8 p.m. Mail-in ballots sent on or before Election Day and delivered by May 28 will be counted.
The campaign period starts on May 23 and ends on June 20. Weber must announce the election results by June 28.
If a winner is clear earlier, even on Election Night, he can be declared the official winner well before that. For example, former Republican Rep. Connie Conway was the clear winner finishing out Rep. Devin Nunes’ term on the night of the 2022 special election. The election was on June 7; she was sworn into Congress on June 14.
Swearing in the winner will be a priority for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., as he holds a razor-thin majority that gives renegade Republicans outsized impact. The House has 217 Republicans, 213 Democrats and five vacancies.
No matter who wins the May runoff, the winner will boost the GOP delegation.
