By James Oliphant
(Reuters) – The two oldest candidates to ever run for the U.S. presidency will meet on June 27 for a televised debate like no other. One accuses his rival of being unhinged and a danger to democracy, while the other accuses his opponent of being senile and corrupt.
President Joe BidenPresident Donald Trump, 81, who turns 78 on Friday, is virtually tied in national polls with less than five months until the Nov. 5 election.
But a large swath of voters remain undecided, raising the stakes of a debate that will be watched for potential moments of drama rather than policy discussions between the Democratic president and his Republican challenger.
Here’s what to watch for during the first presidential debate of 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, airing on CNN at 9:00 PM EDT (1:00 AM GMT on June 28):
THE FITNESS QUESTION
Both candidates could face questions about their fitness to serve in ways that previous presidential candidates have not.
Trump claims Biden is physically and mentally unfit for office, while Biden has called his predecessor “unhinged” and a danger to democratic norms.
Democrats point to Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters, his other efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his May 30 conviction on 34 felony counts for his involvement in a hush-money scheme to conceal an alleged sexual encounter with a porn star from the public.
On the other hand, Biden’s mental and physical strength has been the subject of scrutiny and speculation as he seeks a second four-year term. Critics say he is slowing down and point to a series of verbal errors; allies say he is as sharp as ever.
Trump has regularly mocked Biden at rallies, suggesting he is not up to the task.
The president’s age is also on the minds of most voters, including Democrats, and many viewers will be alert to any sign that Biden — or Trump — is not up to the task.
Trump has not faced the same questions about his staying power, but has raised eyebrows for his tendency to go on extensive tangents and occasionally misidentify Biden as former President Barack Obama.
THE TEMPERAMENT TEST
Both candidates are known for their temper and impatience. They are used to commanding the stage and getting their way. Both have been presidents and probably see little reason to give in to the other.
“There’s a lot of bad blood,” said Tevi Troy, a former George W. Bush official who helped the Republican president prepare for the 2004 debates against Democrat John Kerry.
Biden riled Trump during their first debate of the 2020 race, leading Trump in what was considered a poor performance as the Republican repeatedly interrupted and argued with the moderator. Biden then defeated Trump handily.
Trump may be trying to get under Biden’s shoes by citing the legal troubles of the president’s son, Hunter, who was convicted this week of lying about his drug use to illegally buy a gun. Joe Biden is well practiced at deflecting such comments, but viewers will be on the lookout for any sign that the president can’t keep his balance under fire.
Trump must also be careful not to turn off moderate voters with a bullying approach.
“You can’t be so aggressive that you become rude and seem like you’re trampling your opponent,” said Brett O’Donnell, a veteran Republican debate consultant.
Both Biden and Trump may be rusty. Trump declined to participate in the 2024 Republican primaries, a decision that did him no harm as he easily defeated all his rivals for the party’s nomination. Biden has also not been on the stage of a debate in almost four years.
DISINFORMATION DANGER
Trump is known for injecting falsehoods and exaggerated boasts into his comments, usually requiring a legion of fact-checkers to verify his claims. Biden is also known for telling some tall tales on the stump.
But there is danger for the opposing candidate if he tries to correct the record on stage. “You only have so much time,” Troy said. “You have to get your points out.”
He said fact-checking is a job better left to campaign aides, who can quickly send out statements disputing the opponent’s claims. Many news organizations will also review the veracity of candidates’ statements.
THE NARRATIVE STAIRCASE
The temptation for Biden will be great to rely on Trump’s recent conviction in New York. O’Donnell says that would be a bad idea because it would strengthen Trump’s unsupported claim that Biden was involved in filing the charges and that Trump is the victim of political persecution.
For Trump, the danger lies in saying things that underscore Biden’s argument that he is a threat to democratic norms. Trump, for example, has suggested he will use the Justice Department to attack his political enemies.
“Trump needs to look presidential,” says Aaron Kall, an expert on presidential debates at the University of Michigan.
Trump may also be tempted to complain, as he often does on social media, about the forces working against him, or to portray himself as the victim of a political conspiracy. But undecided voters don’t care about Trump’s grievances, O’Donnell said.
“People are not interested in the candidate’s problems, they are interested in their problems,” the debate consultant said.
Political experts say candidates should emphasize cost-of-living issues – such as high prices for groceries, housing and energy – to show they are in touch with voters’ sentiments.
Biden has been trying to reassure voters about the economy for months, with mixed results, and Reuters/Ipsos polls show Trump with an edge over Biden as candidates are confident he can handle the economy.
Democratic pollster Brad Bannon said Biden should acknowledge that some voters are still struggling.
“He must couple his pride in his achievements with the recognition that consumers are still struggling with high gas and grocery prices,” Bannon said.
Biden, he said, “is good at empathy. He needs to do a lot more of it.”
NO AUDIENCE FEEDBACK
In a sharp departure from previous presidential debates, there will be no studio audience. That could spell trouble for both candidates, but perhaps especially for Trump, who draws energy from a boisterous crowd.
That means the candidates may be somewhat at sea and not getting real-time feedback on how their arguments and attacks are being received, Kall said. With no voters in the room to pander to, the candidates may be more substantive and less theatrical.
Trump, however, has deep experience in studio settings given his many years on network television, while Biden has given speeches from the White House without an audience. A key to success in a debate may be which candidate makes the format work best for him or her by connecting deeply with viewers at home.
THE WILDMAP
There remains the possibility that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could qualify for the debate based on CNN’s criteria. If that happens, it would radically change the dynamic, experts say.
To qualify, Kennedy must receive at least 15% support in four national polls while ensuring his name is on the ballot in enough states that, if he were to win them all, he would collect enough electoral votes to become president .
If Kennedy is seen as a threat by both Biden and Trump, they could work together to try to destroy his credibility. Alternatively, Kennedy could choose to focus his fire on one candidate over another, with unpredictable results.
At the very least, adding Kennedy to the mix would cut into the airtime for both Biden and Trump when they need to make every minute count.
(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Jonathan Oatis)
