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The polls for the 2024 presidential election will close in a few hours.
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been fighting over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.
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This is what we’re looking forward to.
Election Day 2024 has arrived. Billions have been spent to push voters to support specific candidates and causes.
Vice President Kamala Harris disrupted the presidential race with her late entry. Pre-election polls showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the closest in history. The margins are so tight that a possible polling error could lead to an unexpected blowout.
More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, in person or by mail. Final turnout could fall slightly from 2020’s historic levels, but a Gallup poll ahead of the election showed voter enthusiasm above 2008 levels.
It’s not just about control of the White House. Congress is also up for grabs. Republicans are favored to retake the Senate, thanks to key races taking place on favorable ground. The House is more difficult to project. Republicans could gain a few seats, or Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally slim majority. As in 2018, New York and California, which are hardly competitive in the presidential race, loom large.
This is what we’re looking at.
How Trump or Harris will win the White House
Harris’ easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden’s last resort: retaining the second congressional district of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska — the so-called “Blue Wall” and the “Blue Dot.” Barring any unexpected setbacks, Harris would then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.
Trump’s easiest route to victory also runs through Pennsylvania, the key swing state. Winning Pennsylvania would likely allow Trump to retake the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia. In that scenario, he could even absorb the blow of losing an Electoral College vote in Nebraska, which pre-election polls show as highly likely.
While there is rightly so much focus on Pennsylvania, Trump spent a lot of time in North Carolina in the final days of the race, even though only two Democrats, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel State since 1976.
These are the most important provinces to keep an eye on.
Bucks County, PA: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro recently called this Philadelphia metro area “the swingiest of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states.” Hillary Clinton won the Bucks in 2016 by fewer than 3,000 votes, losing both the state and the White House. President Biden won the election four years ago by just over 17,000 votes, en route to capturing his home turf by a margin of about 80,000 votes. If Trump wants to take back Pennsylvania, it is crucial that he does well here.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin: This suburban Milwaukee county area, once traditionally GOP turf, has moved closer to Democratic-leaning suburbs across the country in the Trump era. Trump sent Clinton here in 2016, but his margin fell by just over seven points four years later, when he lost the state to Biden by a margin of about 21,000 votes.
Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, home to Phoenix, the fastest growing county in the country, went to Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden went on to win the state by only about 10,000 votes. In contrast, the then Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, won the county two years earlier by nearly 14 points.
Here’s what early exit polls can tell us:
Exit polls will provide the first major who turned out to vote early in the evening after the embargo is lifted at 5 p.m. Eastern time, although specifics on who could win a state are postponed until polls close in that area.
While exit polls can provide valuable data, especially on demographics, they are often misleading and cannot predict an eventual winner.
Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and former head of election research at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider that he would be interested in how the vote ultimately breaks down by gender and race, especially given speculation that Democrats are losing ground among Black and Latino voters.
Overall, however, he cautions against paying too much attention to the exit polls on election night itself. “As a way to try to see who’s going to win, between when they’re released, which is usually 5 p.m. Eastern tomorrow, and when we get the final count, my advice is to ignore them,” Blumenthal said. “Ignore them completely. Go for a walk. Take a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they are not designed to tell us who will be the winner of the presidential election.”
Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate.
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to hold on to this open Senate seat that her fellow Democrats have held for two decades. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, once a Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him over the top. Rogers and his allies have focused on Slotkin’s support for the White House fuel efficiency standards, which do not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely lead the auto industry to produce more electric vehicles. Pre-election voting: Slotin rose about 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average
Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to survive past challenges in the former swing state, which is now leaning Republican. His challenger, Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, has hammered Brown on immigration. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race ever. Pre-election polling: Moreno rose less than 1 point, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, faces an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2020. Republicans worked hard to elevate Tim Sheehy, a wealthy aerospace executive, even though expectations of a bruising primary were not met. are going to happen. Like other Republican hopefuls, Sheehy has done everything he can to tie Harris to Tester. Pre-election polling: Sheehy rose 6.5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
The House is much closer.
Arizona 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert, a Republican, has represented Scottsdale and surrounding areas in Congress for nearly fourteen years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still held by a Republican. His challenger, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has highlighted his centrist record and hopes Trump’s unpopularity will sink Schweikert.
New York 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democratic-held seat during the 2018 midterm elections in New York, a margin that proved crucial to the Republican Party’s retake of the chamber. Democrats hope Josh Riley, a lawyer and policy analyst, can win a rematch two years later with Harris’ help at the top. More than $35 million has been spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the country.
California 22nd: Representative David Valadao is one of 18 Republicans in the House of Representatives representing a district that President Biden won in 2020. Valadao is also one of only two remaining Republicans in the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas, like many Democrats in key races, is hoping to win in a rematch after falling short two years ago.
Read the original article on Business Insider
