All eyes are on President Biden and former President Donald Trump this week as they prepare for their first presidential debate of 2024 on Thursday. It is the first time in American history that an incumbent and former commander-in-chief will face each other on the debate stage.
The highly anticipated June 27 showdown between Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, will result in a new set of debate rules agreed upon by both sides. Not only will the debate have no audience, but the candidates’ microphones will be muted when they are not speaking, among other things.
For voters, it’s a chance to see two presidents confront a divided nation in a unique, vulnerable way, without the added effects of applause or boos.
For the candidates, political and debate strategists tell Yahoo News this is an opportunity to earn the trust of the American people and win over the 10% of registered voters who are either undecided (6%) or not at all plan to vote (4%) – according to a recent Yahoo/YouGov poll – in the November 5 general election.
Here’s what each candidate needs to do on Thursday to have a successful debate.
A need to ‘frame’ the race
Brett O’Donnell, a Republican strategist who assisted former presidential candidate Mitt Romney during the 2012 Republican Party primaries against President Barack Obama, says Biden and Trump need to make their strongest pitch yet on why they deserve to return to the White House.
“The stakes of this debate are extremely high,” O’Donnell told Yahoo News. “So far in the campaign, voters have not seen either candidate frame the race and answer the question Why they should be the next president of the United States.”
Biden and Trump, the oldest candidates ever to enter a presidential race, have opposing views on critical issues such as immigration, abortion, the war in Gaza and more.
To that end, Biden will reportedly highlight his team’s achievements while seeking to draw a stark contrast between himself, “who is fighting for the American people,” and Trump, “who will take the stage as a convicted felon,” campaign spokesman Michael Tyler . described in a memo obtained by NBC News.
Trump, on the other hand, is reportedly “focused less on policy” and more on rhetoric, according to CNN.
Still, the former president recruited a group of policy experts and allies to amplify his message on the economy and immigration, as well as the Jan. 6 attacks and his promise to pardon the rioters, according to the New York Times.
What Biden should do
According to Jennifer Talbert, head of the debate program at Ohio University, President Biden must demonstrate strong “mental acuity” — reminiscent of his fiery State of the Union address in March — to undermine Trump’s claim that he is mentally unfit to lead.
“Viewers will have the opportunity to watch President Biden answer tough questions and decide for themselves whether he has the mental strength to continue as president,” Talbert said.
The president will try to emphasize what is at stake if Trump is elected, Tyler said in a memo to the press. In particular, Biden will seek to highlight issues where the former president “poses the most extreme threat” in Biden’s eyes, such as the appointment of Supreme Court justices who helped reverse the situation. Roe v. Wade in 2022. Biden will aim to contrast Trump’s record by touting his own achievements — from job growth to relief from COVID-related losses and student loans, according to CNN.
The president must also avoid conflict and focus on substance, O’Donnell emphasized.
“There is no love lost between these two candidates and so there will be great interest in how far they go after each other,” he said. “[But] both should keep this debate about the voters and not about each other. The person who best connects with the audience at home and convinces them that they have a plan to solve voters’ big challenges will ultimately be the winner.”
What Trump should do
The advice to avoid belligerence also applies to Trump, noted Talbert, who said Thursday’s debate is an opportunity for Trump to make his argument that America has become more expensive under Biden and that things have been better during his time in office .
That message could resonate more deeply with viewers if Trump can control his outbursts, she explained. During their first presidential debate in 2020, Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden as he spoke, which the former president has since acknowledged as a mistake.
To that end, Talbert said Trump must convince viewers that he is well informed on the issues and that he answers questions accurately.
“Sometimes Trump gets loose with some of his facts,” she said. “Viewers should watch the commentary after the debate to determine whether Trump has the truth on his side.”
That’s especially true when it comes to the economy, which both sides are accused of misrepresenting.
“Much of the American public is being financially affected by the current economy in terms of increased food, energy and fuel prices,” Talbert said. “The candidates need to focus on their voters instead of those zinger lines.”
Despite Trump’s 34 convictions in a hush-money trial last month, sources told the New York Times that the former president is more focused on how to respond to debate questions about the January 6 riots. Trump has promised to pardon the rioters, whom he often calls “hostages.” He reportedly told his employees that he would do this “on a case-by-case basis.”
Ahead of Thursday, Trump and his surrogates were also unusually complimentary about their opponent’s capabilities, a sign that they may be trying to set high expectations for Biden’s performance.
“I was never a fan of his, but I will say he beat Paul Ryan – years ago, but he beat Paul Ryan badly,” Trump said on the All-In podcast last Thursday, referring to the vice presidential debate between Biden in 2012. and the former Republican House Speaker.
“I guess he’s going to be someone who’s going to be a decent debater, I would say, I think. I don’t want to underestimate him,” Trump added.
How much impact do debates really have?
Not as much as you might think. Separate studies from 2019 and 2012 showed no significant changes in the way a voter views candidates before and after watching a debate, as reported by Scientific American.
What voters see in the media or from political activists and other citizens, the authors of the 2019 study suggest, has more influence on their decision than what they see in the debate.
The 2024 presidential elections appear to be a close race. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted June 3-6 found Biden (46%) barely leading Trump (44%) among registered voters. Biden’s campaign pushed for an early debate in part, hoping it could give the president new momentum.
With an election this close, one thing is crystal clear: every vote counts.
