Let’s make one thing clear: the polls cannot tell us who will win the presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a certain state.
The breed is That close and uncertain, just as the polls in previous election cycles were That far from the target.
With these caveats out of the way, let’s not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces that shaped the election.
They don’t tell us who’s going to win, but we’ll know soon enough. What the polls can already do is help explain the forces that shaped this election and how former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge victorious.
The gender gap is enormous
The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump carrying men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined gender gap of 34 points, compared to 30 points in the October NBC News poll.
Now, not every poll reflects the same huge gender gap. But many do, and it could be one of the defining storylines of this election. Additionally, the NBC News poll and others find an even more pronounced gender gap in education, with Harris vastly gaining on white women with college degrees, compared to Trump’s strength among men and women without college degrees.
The possible election of the first female president, a broad backlash against Trump, the fall of Roe v. Wade and more have played a major role in narrowing the gap in Harris’ favor among women. But just as much, Trump and his intense appeals to men have been a major election story.
Democrats have lost ground against Latino voters (as well as some black voters)
While Harris and the Democrats have gained ground among white women with college degrees, they have lost ground among Latino voters, according to this fall’s NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll.
There has also been some mild erosion for Democrats among black voters, especially among younger black men.
In a close election, the outcome could come down to exactly how these trends play out in the electorate, after months of analyzing them through opinion polls. And if the changes are concentrated in certain states, they could also have a major impact on how the Electoral College plays out.
Voters assess Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s
The latest NBC News poll shows President Joe Biden has a job rating of 41% approving and 58% disapproving. By comparison, Trump’s retrospective job rating in the same poll is 48% approve, 51% disapprove.
That 48% approval for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll has ever found for him during his presidency.
It gets into the same dynamic as asking who voters think would better represent the change (more on that below). And it could play a decisive role, as some swing voters have said they are willing to look past what they see as Trump’s character flaws, out of a desire to return to the economic conditions they remember from the years before Covid-19 of his presidency.
Harris is more popular than Trump – but how much more popular?
Despite Trump’s higher post-approval, he remains a historically unpopular figure for a presidential candidate – with 42% favorable and 51% unfavorable among all registered voters (a net rating of -9). It’s not the -33 net rating he had heading into his first presidential election in 2016, but it’s also not what successful presidential candidates have typically enjoyed.
By comparison, when Harris became the Democrats’ presidential nominee, her popularity soared in the NBC News poll. But it has since returned to Earth and is not far off from Trump’s. That would also make Harris an anomaly if she wins.
Her rating is 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net), according to the latest national NBC News poll. Other polls show slightly higher popularity ratings for Harris.
Harris leads the abortion effort; Trump is leading the way on inflation
What is also consistent across the polls are the issues and presidential characteristics, with Harris having a significant advantage on abortion, which the NBC News poll found to be one of the top motivating issues for voters.
By comparison, with some exceptions, Trump has an edge over Harris when it comes to the economy and the cost of living — although the advantage is smaller than when President Joe Biden was in the race for the Democrats. And whether he’s running against Biden or Harris, Trump’s biggest advantage has long been on the border and controlling immigration.
While both candidates have played to their strengths, they have also done what they can do to soften those weaknesses, such as when Trump said during his debate with Harris that he would not sign a national abortion ban. And while Biden never aired a TV ad across the border, Harris’ campaign began airing one within weeks of taking over the Democratic ticket.
Who is the change candidate in the race?
This could be the most important question in a battle between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump), both vying for voters who think the country is on the wrong track. In the latest NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, compared to 41% who believe Trump does — a slight advantage for Harris.
But when asked what worries them more – whether Harris continues the same approach as Biden or whether Trump continues this approach from his first term as president – 41% say they are more concerned about following Harris in Biden’s path, compared to 40% who are more concerned about Trump repeating the actions of his term, the same poll shows.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
