Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition: political reporter Allan Smith and senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas are clearing their notebooks after spending the past two weeks on the Pennsylvania battlefield. Plus, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray breaks down our latest NBC News poll ahead of the election.
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Inside the final sprint on the largest battlefield on the map
By Allan Smith and Peter Nicholas
PITTSBURGH – No state has played a bigger role in the presidential campaign leading up to Election Day than Pennsylvania.
More than any other state, it has been the backdrop for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and the place where most of the spending has been done on behalf of both candidates. It’s the place where Trump was nearly assassinated over the summer, only to make his triumphant return months later. It’s where he served fries during a McDonald’s photo shoot and danced in front of the cameras for nearly 40 minutes during a gathering that turned into an impromptu music listening session.
It’s where Harris unveiled her running mate, her economic platform and made call after call to disgruntled Republicans.
It’s where Harris and Trump had their only debate. It serves as the proverbial red carpet for prominent surrogates.
And over the final two weeks of the race, both the candidates and their running mates held 16 events in Pennsylvania — including Monday, marking some of Harris and Trump’s final rallies of the campaign.
To get a sense of life in the crucial battleground state during this final part of the campaign, NBC News toured Pennsylvania for two weeks and spoke with more than two dozen voters, officials and operatives working races here.
As things stand, most supporters on both sides are not expressing excessive confidence that their side will achieve a victory. Polls in the state show an incredibly tight race — one that mirrors the results of the last two presidential elections here. If you drive through Pennsylvania, you see a swing state made up of swing streets, along which neighbors have signs for the opposing candidates right next to each other. In some cases there are even swing families – and talking about politics is verboten.
Jennifer Mann, a Trump supporter from Philipsburg who attended the former president’s rally in State College late last month, said everyone here has friends or family close to them with different views on who should win.
“So it’s a really difficult situation,” she said, adding that such political conversations “usually don’t happen because it involves a lot of risk.”
Read more from Allan and Peter →
🗺️ Elsewhere on the battlefield map: Natasha Korecki and Garrett Haake report that the Trump campaign remains unsettled about its prospects in North Carolina, a state he supported in the last two elections. Read more →
NBC News poll underlines the divisions in America on the eve of the election
By Mark Murray
The latest polls, including the national NBC News poll, cannot tell us who will win the presidential election. But they make one thing crystal clear: this country remains deeply divided on the eve of the election.
This is evident from the deadlocked 49% to 49% result in our poll between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters and from the margin of error findings of other surveys.
It’s evident from the massive gender gap in the NBC News poll (with Harris 16 points ahead of women and Trump 18 points ahead of men), the deep urban-rural divide (where Harris is 22 points ahead of urban voters and Trump leads in rural areas) voters by 33 points) and the divides by education (with Harris leading by 12 points among white voters with a college degree and Trump leading by 30 points among white voters without a college degree).
It is also clear how both parties view the opposition. Only 4% of Democratic voters have a positive view of Trump, compared to 93% who have a negative view (-89 net). And 5% of Republican voters have a positive view of Harris, while 92% have a negative view (-87 net rating).
“We’ve grown further apart and picked our corner,” said pollster Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the bipartisan duo that conducted the NBC News poll. “Each side is as closed as it can be, and they don’t budge or move.”
And this division rears its head in one of the poll’s final questions: With the election of the country’s next president, do you expect the nation to become more united or remain divided?
Twenty-eight percent of voters responded more unanimously, compared to 60% who responded more divided.
📊 More from the NBC News poll: It’s clearer than ever after months of close polling and years of intense polarization: Whoever wins the election could face small differences in who votes and who stays home. Read more →
📊 More from the NBC News poll: Beneath the surface of a close race, the handful of voters who have wavered between Harris and Trump in recent weeks illustrate the “lesser of two evils” thinking that could decide the election. Read more →
🗞️Today’s top stories
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🕖 Final countdown: The contrast between Trump’s loose cannon style and Harris’ more traditional and safe approach was evident in the final days of the campaign. Read more →
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🕖 Final countdown, continued: Regardless of who wins the election, a key part of the American political landscape for nearly a decade will disappear: Trump’s campaign rally. Read more →
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👀 Trump-RFK connection: Trump did not rule out banning certain vaccines if elected, saying in an interview with NBC News that an effort by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to remove fluoride from water “sounds OK”. Read more →
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🗳️ Mood: Bridget Bowman and Faith Wardwell outline five key dynamics to watch in the battle for control of the House of Representatives and Senate, and Sahil Kapur lists four big things the new Congress will have to tackle next year.
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❓Montana Senate Update: Republican Tim Sheehy struggled in a new interview to provide a clear explanation of the circumstances surrounding a 2015 incident in a national park that led to his treatment for a gunshot wound and receiving a fine. Read more →
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📺 Wisconsin Senate Update: Republican Eric Hovde focused much of his closing message on attacking the financial career of Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s girlfriend, highlighting Baldwin’s homosexual relationship. Read more →
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Follow live updates of the campaign trail →
For now, that all comes from the Political Bureau. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
