Three weeks ago, the trade deadline picture seemed clearly defined for the Mets and Yankees, as their seasons rolled in opposite directions: The Mets would have a fire sale, with many items yet to be priced, while the Yanks would be demanding. buyers who just want to refine a juggernaut.
Then baseball happened: a reminder of how much can change through the ups and downs of a 162-game season.
And sure enough, with the teams coming together for two Subway Series games at Citi Field this week, it looks like a lot has changed. The Mets’ stunning turnaround, contrasted with signs of vulnerability in the Bronx, makes the upcoming trade deadline a smoother proposition on both sides of the city.
Suddenly, the Mets are buyers rather than sellers, at least on a small scale, partly because of an offensive resurgence that has fueled a hot June, and partly because the diluted state of the National League will likely make one or more of them. even two Wild Card playoff berths very attainable.
For the Yankees, series losses to the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have exposed cracks in the foundation that will apparently need more repair than expected in this all-in effort to win a championship in 2024. .
With the deadline still just over a month away, there’s always a chance for another notable shift in fortunes, especially for the Mets, but for now here’s a look at the likely scenarios for both teams, based on conversations from in recent days with the Major League scouts and executives.
METS
The reviewers I spoke to agreed David Sterns are in a tough spot as their improved play has put them in the thick of Wild Card contention, even as relatively low as that bar may currently be.
On the one hand, because there are likely so few real sellers around the majors, the Mets could maximize returns on several potential trade pieces to benefit their long-term plan. On the other hand, their offensive resurgence has dramatically changed the feel of their season.
“They’re not a great club,” said a crew chief from a rival team, “but if you look around the league, you can say they’re better than pretty much everyone in the Wild Card race except Atlanta. That puts them in a position where they are likely to want to add something, even if only in a minor way. Probably a reliever, just like everyone else.”
Others made a similar case regarding the status of the Mets.
“The bottom would have to fall out again for them to become sellers again,” one scout said. “They would have been eight or 10 under (.500) at the deadline and I don’t see that, especially with a soft schedule in July (18 games with the Nationals, Pirates, Rockies and Marlins).
“Like (Edwin) Diaz anything is possible as that’s where their season went off the rails for a while, but overall they underperformed as a team so I’m not shocked they got hot.
“The Bats will probably level off a little bit, but this is closer to who they are than the way they played in May. You knew (Francisco) Lindor And (Pete) Alonso would strike at some point, and you knew it JD Martinez would be impactful. You can also see (Francisco) Alvarez was missed. So I would call them bullpen buyers at this point, just not to the point where I’m giving up top prospects.”
In that case, the deadline could look quiet for the Mets as evaluators argue that supply and demand in this trade market will require teams to pay a premium to acquire an available player, especially a top reliever.
And while they will be without Diaz for the next few days following his sticky stuff ejection on Sunday night, which carries a 10-game suspension, that would only affect their trade deadline plans if it sends them into a tailspin.
“Even if they consider themselves contenders, they won’t switch gears and are in extreme go-for-it mode,” said an evaluator familiar with Stearns. “David won’t deviate from his long-term plan to chase a Wild Card spot, but I could see him trying to add something on the margins.
‘I’m actually very curious whether he will try to thread the needle and become a buyer and a seller. If (Kodai) Senga If he comes back, he could have enough pitching depth to trade a starter, so I could see him doing that to take advantage of the lack of inventory on the market while still trying to improve his club by adding a reliever .”
To make such a move worthwhile, in terms of acquiring a top prospect, scouts and executives agreed Luis Severino is probably the only starter with enough value to pull it off. Of course, he was also the Mets’ best starter and trading him certainly wouldn’t be well received by the players.
“I don’t see David going down that path after he acted (Josh) Hader a few years ago in Milwaukee and it almost caused a mutiny in his clubhouse,” said a rival executive. “Even if Senga is back, you can’t tell your team you believe in them as a playoff contender (as Stearns has done) and then trade your most dominant starter.
“I’m sure it would be tempting because his main goal is to build something for the long term, but you’re also trying to build a culture and that’s not the best way to go about it, especially in your first years in college. function.
“So if he tries to trade a starter, I think it would be a smaller move as part of a deal to get bullpen help. A lefty like (David) Peterson might arouse some interest. Otherwise, I think it’s a matter of him letting this team run its course and then reevaluating in the offseason, knowing some of your best prospects will be big-league ready or close to it.
“But if they’re still playing this way in a month’s time, the reevaluation could be that they have a chance to make some noise in October, so you become more aggressive at the deadline than you ever thought. You never know until you get there.”
YANKIES
For a team with the best record in the American League, the Yankees suddenly have multiple concerns that evaluators say need to be addressed at the trade deadline, from the bullpen to catching first or third base.
“The bullpen was the one area that everyone knew they would need help, especially after that (Jonathan) Loaisiga went down (with elbow surgery),” one scout said. “They needed more swing-and-miss, especially with a closer who isn’t a strikeout guy. And that was in the past (Clay) Holmes had a tough week.”
The need to add a quality reliever has become more apparent after Holmes gave up nine hits and six runs in four appearances (before pitching Sunday), including just two strikeouts.
And because of the need for a quality left-handed player, there has been speculation that the Yankees will trade for someone like the Miami Marlins closer Tanner Scott or Chicago White Sox starter Garrett hooka left-handed strikeout monster whose potential innings limitations make him a candidate to be converted into a reliever.
“He’s the guy who can put a team like the Yankees over the top,” said a second scout. “But it would cost you a lot.”
It would certainly be tempting for the Yankees to think about how Crochet could dominate as a reliever, considering he’s striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings as a starter.
But do the Yankees have enough to get him? They traded a lot of pitching in the Juan Soto deal, and top pitching prospect Chase Hampton has yet to pitch this season while recovering from a shoulder injury. And because Crochet still has two years of control before hitting free agency, the price may be too high for the Yankees.
In any case, the evaluators have no doubts about it Brian Cashman will contribute to the bullpen in some way.
But due to concerns about Jose Trevino‘s arm strength, after the Boston Red Sox went wild on him last weekend, the Yankees may be looking for a catcher.
And then there’s the matter of first and third base. They needed more offense from those spots, and now they’re left without Anthony Rizzo several weeks due to a broken forearm.
The Yanks have time to evaluate the rookie call-up Ben Rice, but on Sunday they also traded for ex-Met J.D. Daviswho was DFA’d by the Oakland A’s last week.
If these additions don’t provide enough offensive help, Cashman will likely look for a corner infielder, but the scouts I spoke to made it clear that there are no obvious moves that would make an impact due to the lack of teams looming . as sellers at the moment.
“They’ll have to hope that a few more vendors emerge closer to the deadline,” one scout said. “The Marlins would love to trade Jos Bell, but he’s having a bad year. There is not much that is attractive.”
A team executive agreed that Cashman’s priority will be adding to the bullpen, but also thinks the GM will go the extra mile to recruit other impact players.
“If they get a quality reliever, I think they’re good enough to win a championship,” the director said. “And the addition could be there eventually (Luis) Gil, depending on how his year goes. It helps that they are only now getting their bait (Gerrit Cole) back.
“But I will say this: I believe Cash sees this season as an all-in season, especially since he doesn’t know what Soto will do as a free agent. So I think he’s going to be very aggressive in making moves to get his needs met.
