If a Manhattan jury convicts Donald Trump on one of 34 charges of falsifying company records in the hush money case, the immediate next question will be what punishment the former president should receive.
It is a decision that rests entirely with Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case. The crime Trump is accused of, falsifying corporate records in the first degree, is a Class E felony in New York, the least serious category, and is punishable by up to four years in prison.
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But Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison if convicted, experts say. He is a first-time offender and the crime he is charged with is a non-violent paper crime. “I think the judge would probably not incarcerate him under these circumstances alone,” said Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University, who called a prison sentence “unlikely.”
“But also considering that he is a former president, a Secret Service employee and also the presumptive Republican nominee, I think a prison sentence would be very difficult logistically, but would also have political implications that I think Judge Merchan would like that. prevent.”
Any punishment will likely consist of fines, probation, community service, or a combination thereof.
“I would like to see some community service — picking up trash on the subway,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former chief prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
Much could depend on how Merchan interprets Trump’s behavior, including any lack of remorse.
“I can’t imagine we’ll see a contrite, apologetic Trump when it comes time for sentencing,” Bader said. “Judges also take into account the damage caused. On the one hand, Judge Merchan could view this as a technical violation of registration to cover up distasteful conduct, causing only minimal harm. On the other hand, he could see that Trump’s behavior is causing great harm to the entire country by depriving the voting public of the right to vote informedly in the nation’s highest elections.”
The jury will not have the opportunity to convict Trump of a crime – falsifying corporate records, but not in service of another underlying crime. Trump’s lawyers could have asked Merchan to give the jury that option, but they did not.
Regardless of what Trump is convicted of, it will not affect his legal ability to run for president. The constitution does not prohibit criminals from running for office. Whether he could serve as president from prison has not been tested. He could not forgive himself for any conviction as it is a state crime.
A conviction would also likely have no impact on Trump’s ability to vote in this fall’s election. Florida, where he is registered, allows people with out-of-state convictions to vote if the state where they were convicted allows it. In New York, someone with a felony conviction can vote as long as he or she is not in jail.
If Trump is convicted, he will almost certainly appeal quickly. Any penalties will then likely be suspended while an appeal is pending.
Merchan has already punished Trump twice during the case for violating a gag order, and the way the judge handled both cases could provide insight into how he will approach any potential punishment for Trump. It underlines that Merchan is acutely aware of the logistical problems associated with imprisoning Trump and their broader political implications.
“Mr. Trump, it is important to understand that the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president,” Merchan said on May 6, as he issued a $1,000 fine accusing Trump of contempt of court for the 10th time. He went on to explain why putting Trump in jail at the time “was really a last resort for me…I’m also concerned about the people who would have to carry out that sanction: the bailiffs, the corrections officers, the secret service details, and so on.” others. I worry about them and what would be involved in carrying out such a sanction.
“Of course, I am also aware of the broader implications of such a sanction. The magnitude of such a decision is not unilateral. But at the end of the day, I have a job, and part of that job is to protect the dignity of the justice system and demand respect,” he added.
