Independent election analysts expect the race for Stockton’s congressional district on Nov. 5 to be close.
Nonpartisan analysts including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball estimate that California’s 9th Congressional District will likely, but not definitively, favor incumbent Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) over Stockton’s Republican Mayor Kevin Lincoln.
The 9th Congressional District, centered on Stockton, includes most of San Joaquin County and runs from Galt to Manteca. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Stay up to date with election news
Sign up here to receive our 2024 Elections newsletter, delivering local, state, and national political news and analysis directly to your inbox.
Over the past year, The Bee has spoken with analysts from these organizations. They cited national Republican enthusiasm for flipping the seat and Lincoln’s candidacy as an advantage for the GOP in the seat. They noted that Harder’s decisive victory in 2022 and the district’s left-leaning composition favor Democrats.
While the election is likely to be Democratic, analysts are curious to see whether the outcome will be closer as November approaches.
“That’s one that I think Republicans are very positive about, and I can certainly see it becoming more competitive,” Erin Covey, a U.S. House of Representatives analyst and contributing editor to The Cook Political Report, said in an August interview.
Analysts are monitoring 10 California House of Representatives races, including the 9th.
California’s congressional elections will determine whether Democrats or Republicans will gain control of the House of Representatives in 2025. The November elections in several states are high priorities for national Democrats and Republicans.
There are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats, and four vacancies in the House. Three of those empty seats were filled by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number of seats for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats would need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.
Josh Harder
Harder, 38, has represented the Central Valley in Congress since 2019. He entered the House by ousting a Republican congressman from a district that includes Harder’s hometown of Turlock. Harder retained his seat in the 2020 election.
After the 2020 redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative maps based on census data, Harder’s old district was split, with a significant portion moving to a district with Stockton.
When longtime Stockton Rep. Jerry McNerney, a Democrat, said he would not run for Congress again, Harder announced he would run for the newly elected seat. He won by nearly 10 percentage points over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican.
Harder worked in the venture capital industry until 2017. He left during his first campaign for Congress and went to teach at Modesto Junior College.
In Congress, he serves on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which writes government spending bills.
Harder said in an interview that the cost of living, access to water and reproductive health care drove conversations among voters. He thinks of his two young daughters when he thinks about the rise of laws restricting access to abortion and the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Harder said the federal protections of Roe v. Wade should be reinstated. After the Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, a person nationwide could legally seek an abortion up to the point of fetal viability, generally considered to be about 24 weeks of pregnancy. The Supreme Court overturned the nearly 50-year-old precedent in 2022.
“I want my daughters, who will be residents of San Joaquin County and the Valley for six generations, to be able to have a home,” Harder said, “to be able to have the same lifestyle that has been passed down through generations and to have the same rights that are enshrined in our law that are now being undermined.”
Kevin Lincoln
Lincoln, 43, has been mayor of Stockton since 2021, running for public office for the first time as the coronavirus pandemic has led to lockdowns across the U.S.
In an interview, he said the cost of living, crime and combating the effects of fentanyl have been key topics in many of his recent conversations with voters.
Before becoming mayor, Lincoln served in the U.S. Marine Corps and on Marine One during the George W. Bush administration. After moving back to California to raise his family, Lincoln was a district manager for a private security firm and an executive director for his local church.
Lincoln’s own family struggled with the effects of addiction, crime, and homelessness. He recalled a homeless man as a teenager who asked him for money, only to learn it was his biological father. Lincoln hadn’t seen him for a few years. His father had been in and out of prison throughout his childhood.
“There were people in my life here in Stockton that helped me, my mother and my family in times of need,” Lincoln said. “And so I always had a calling to serve. I always felt the need to give back where I could.”
Fundraising
Harder had the advantage of being able to raise money.
While campaign finance is far from the only factor in deciding an election, candidates with cash on hand can spend more on advertising, events, and other necessities needed to run a campaign. It’s also a good idea to have money set aside in case of unexpected problems.
Campaign funds come from a wide variety of sources, including those not listed in the candidate’s official report, as well as from individual donors, political action committees, other legislators, and joint fundraising groups.
Harder’s campaign committee raised nearly $730,000 from early April through late June, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, which became available in July. He had more than $3.3 million on hand.
Lincoln raised nearly $338,000 during the same period. He reported more than $620,000 in cash.
Analysts had previously said that President Joe Biden’s re-election could negatively impact vulnerable Democratic incumbents like Harder, particularly because of the nationalization of local elections and the decline of split-ticket voting, in which someone chooses candidates for separate offices from different parties on the same ballot.
With Vice President Kamala Harris now in the lead, Biden’s deficit is of no consequence.
Instead, Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, said in August: “Harris’ ability to maintain enthusiasm and her ability to win over moderates and independents will be critical for these lower-level candidates.”
