The feverish post-election stock market rally came to an abrupt halt last week.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell more than 2% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell more than 500 points, or nearly 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell more than 3%.
Two strong inflation numbers and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell weighed on markets last week, with growing uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate path outweighing earlier investor excitement about Trump’s potential policy agenda.
In the coming week, several economic data releases are expected to contribute to that story, with activity in the services and manufacturing sectors and consumer confidence taking center stage.
However, the gains will put the spotlight back on some of the biggest names in business after a few weeks of macroeconomic and political events dominating investor mindsets.
Chief among these reports is earnings from AI leader Nvidia ( NVDA ), which will report results after the bell on Wednesday. The quarterly results of Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), BJ’s (BJ) and Deere & Company (DE) will also be central.
Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point on September 18, bond yields have risen. Ten-year Treasury yields (^TNX) rose 80 basis points between that date and the days after the election, trading around 4.5%.
That interest rate movement was not a problem for the stock market rally until last week.
While strategists have suggested that a rise in interest rates, supported by stronger-than-expected economic growth, could be welcome news for equities, recent inflation data has thrown a wrench into this thesis.
On Wednesday, the ‘core’ consumer price index (CPI), which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3% for the third consecutive month in October. On Thursday, the ‘core’ Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that prices rose 3.1% in October from last year, up from 2.8% in the previous month and above economists’ expectations for an increase of 3%.
Later on Thursday, Powell said in a speech that the Fed does not need to be in a “rush” to cut rates given the strength of the US economy. Markets fell after the comments and selling continued Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite down more than 2.2% on the session.
“Slower progress on inflation in recent months could prompt the Fed to reevaluate the pace of easing,” Wells Fargo’s economics team led by Jay Bryson wrote in a weekly note to clients on Friday.
As of Friday afternoon, investors had priced in a 58% chance that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, up from a nearly 86% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Schwab Asset Management CEO and Chief Investment Officer Omar Aguilar told Yahoo Finance Powell’s comments and the Fed debate add uncertainty and “additional volatility and therefore the opportunity for investors to take something off the table and take some profits.”
Amid all the macro news impacting the stock market in November, S&P 500 companies posted solid third-quarter earnings.
According to FactSet data, the S&P 500 saw earnings rise 5.4% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. This is the fifth quarter in a row with profit growth. And one of the index’s biggest contributors to that projected growth is expected to report earnings this week.
Nvidia is expected to report earnings per share of $0.74 on revenue of $33.21 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Both measures would represent growth of more than 80% compared to the same period a year earlier.
“We expect a similar story to recent quarters, with a beat and raise of around $2 billion [for current quarter revenue guidance],” Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis wrote in a research note previewing the release.
CEO Jensen Huang speaks during the Nvidia GTC keynote speech in San Jose, California, Monday, March 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Curtis noted that expectations have “continued to rise higher” as Nvidia shares are up more than 7% in the past month and are up more than 180% this year. But Curtis believes the stock “will continue to work” as Nvidia continues to release its latest AI chip, Blackwell.
Given Nvidia’s large weighting in the S&P 500, its gains in recent quarters are seen as a major catalyst for the overall direction of the market.
And while investors will listen to any clues as to why Big Tech companies continue to spend money on the AI chip leader, the actual price action of Nvidia’s stock after earnings hasn’t been a barometer of broader market performance in the near term.
For example, Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings release in August made little impression on investors and the stock fell by about 6% the day after the earnings release.
But that sour sentiment didn’t permeate the market as the S&P 500 closed flat that same day. This was the second consecutive quarter that the broader S&P 500 did not move along with Nvidia after its earnings release.
Some of the market’s biggest winners since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5 have changed course.
The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) has given back almost all of its gains. The S&P 500 closed below on Friday, where it opened the day after the election. And the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT) index, which rose more than 9% after Trump’s victory, has now given back about half of those gains.
For small caps, the story is not much different than a week ago, when we noted concerns from Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz about earnings momentum for companies in the index.
“Over the last 20 days, we’ve certainly seen small cap margins fall quite sharply,” Kantrowitz said. He added that investors would like to see gains accelerate to signal the start of a recovery.
“[It’s] not something we see quite yet,” Kantrowitz said. “So something we’ll keep an eye on.”
The move in small caps is emblematic of the uneven trading action in the two weeks following the election, as the impact, if any, of the Trump administration’s policies largely remains to be seen.
“The key economic positions have not yet been announced, and we remain in a situation of uncertainty policy uncertainty background,” Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients as he explained the recent downturn in the market rally.
“We are operating from euphoric sentiment levels and implied growth expectations at post-2008 highs,” he added. “Overall, there is a lot of pressure on macros and fundamentals to deliver, which could explain the recent profit-taking after a fast post-election period.”
Economic data: Housing starts month-on-month in October (-1.4% expected, -0.5% earlier); Construction permits, month-on-month, October (1.2% expected, -3.1% earlier)
Income: Lowe’s (LOW), Walmart (WMT), XPeng (XPEV)
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, November 15 (0.5% earlier)
Income: Nvidia (NVDA), Jack In The Box (JACK), NIO (NIO), Palo Alto Network (PANW), Snowflake (SNOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Economic data: Initial unemployment claims, week ending November 16 (previously 217,000); Leading index, October (-0.3% expected, -0.5% earlier); Existing home sales month-on-month, October (+2.3% expected, -1% prior); Manufacturing activity by the Kansas City Fed, November (-4 earlier)
Income: Baidu (BIDU), BJ’s (BJ), Deere & Company (DE), Gap (GAP), Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST), Warner Music Group (WMG)
Economic data: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, preliminary November (48 expected, 48.5 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, provisional November (55 expected, 55 earlier); S&P Global US Composite PMI, provisional November (previously 54.1); University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, November Final (73 expected, 73 earlier)
Income: No significant profit publications.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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