Two years ago, as baseball’s winter meetings approached, Justin Verlander was one of the hottest names on the free agent market. Weeks earlier, the ultra-talented right-hander had added another honor to his collection when he unanimously won the AL Cy Young Award in 2022, becoming the 11th pitcher in MLB history to win three Cy Youngs. Not only had he delivered a sparkling campaign in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he had done so at age 39, making him the fourth-oldest pitcher to claim the game’s top pitching award. And if his individual wins weren’t enough, Verlander’s Astros had just won the World Series.
Such a sensational season at such an old age made Verlander an especially unique free agent after his Astros contract expired. Verlander still seemed at the top of his game and earned a significant payday. But for a pitcher about to turn 40, it seemed likely that such a deal would come in the form of a shorter-term pact with a huge average annual value.
Sure enough, the 2022 winter meetings in San Diego kicked off with the New York Mets signing Verlander to a two-year, $86.66 million deal — one with a nearly identical $43.3 million AAV to the three-year, $130 million contract that gave the Mets to a fellow future deal. Hall of Fame right-hander Max Scherzer the winter before. Signing Verlander was one of the Mets’ huge spending sprees this offseason, as they also spent big to keep Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, in addition to signing Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga to a $75 million deal.
But the active offseason failed to translate into results the following season, prompting the Mets to dramatically deconstruct their roster at the 2023 trade deadline, including sending Verlander back to the Astros, prematurely ending his stint in Queens. It was a tenure further shortened by a shoulder injury in spring training that forced Verlander to miss the first month of the season, meaning he made just sixteen starts for New York – a staggeringly small total considering the massive contract the team gave him had given months earlier.
As a 40-year-old, Verlander didn’t pitch at a Cy Young level for the Mets or Astros in 2023, but he was still an above-average starter when he returned from injury. Although his fastball velocity was off a tick and his strikeout rate dropped significantly, from 27.8% in 2022 to 21.5% in 2023, his excellent run prevention was intact: Verlander’s 3.22 ERA ranked ninth among qualified starters . He also acquitted himself well in the postseason during Houston’s run to another ALCS (2.95 ERA in 18 1/3 innings), adding to his long playoff resume with three more solid performances in October.
Back for his age-41 season and the second year of his lucrative contract, shoulder problems again delayed the start of Verlander’s 2024 season, this time for a few weeks. He posted a 3.95 ERA over 10 starts before a neck injury sent him back to the injured list, where he joined a litany of Astro’s arms on the shelf. He returned in late August but struggled down the stretch, to the tune of an 8.10 ERA over 33 1/3 innings of work. Verlander’s poor form ultimately didn’t cost Houston a spot in the standings, but it certainly hurt its prospects of cracking the playoff rotation as the Astros prepared for October.
Verlander’s final start of the season came on Saturday, September 28 in Cleveland in what turned out to be Houston’s final regular season game of 2024 as Game 162 was rained out on Sunday. The final rule – six innings, seven hits, three runs allowed, zero walks, five strikeouts – was hardly anything special, especially by Verlander’s high standards. But it was by far his best performance since returning from the neck injury and an encouraging sign after a difficult few months.
“It’s probably the best I’ve felt since I came back so far,” Verlander said afterwards.
His secondary performance was sharp that day, as he threw a higher percentage of sliders and changeups than in any other start all season. His fastball reached 96.9 mph, his hardest pitch since returning from injury and tied for his second-hardest pitch of the season. He threw 74% of his 95 pitches for strikes, his highest percentage of the season. And it was only the second start all season in which he didn’t walk or hit a batter, with the other appearance coming in his first start of the season on April 19.
“I’m someone who tries to be realistic with myself, and I know I haven’t been nearly as good as I should be,” Verlander said of his struggles leading up to his regular season finale. “I didn’t have the luxury of time. I had to come back and try to figure this thing out and pitch it. The only way you can find out where you stand is by pitching. And it’s been tough, but it’s slowly gotten better.
“I also know there’s some bad luck in there, but you know, I’m not going to let that be a crutch and say, ‘No, that’s just it.’ That’s not it – I haven’t been as sharp as I needed to be. But I feel like I’m going in the right direction.”
Earlier that week, the Astros had completed their epic chase of the Mariners and captured another division crown, meaning the game had minimal stakes for both teams. But for Verlander, who was still looking for something resembling his top talent, the outing carried a lot of weight because it provided another opportunity to remind himself and the rest of the baseball world what he is capable of.
“Honestly, I wish this wasn’t the end of the season,” Verlander continued to think. “With someone, myself, working as hard as I can to figure it out… usually there’s something I can click on, like, ‘Okay, that’s it.’ But this injury was a little different than that. It was just a bit off, and there was nothing that made it click. So things are going in the right direction. This would be great to build on.”
Had the Astros advanced past Detroit in the wild-card round, Verlander might have been added to the ALDS roster, perhaps giving him a chance to build on the momentum from his last regular-season start. Instead, the Tigers upset the Astros in Houston, ending the Astros’ streak of seven consecutive trips to the ALCS and initiating Verlander’s free agency earlier than expected.
“You never know what’s going to happen,” Verlander said after starting in Cleveland about the possibility of this being his last appearance as an Astro. “But I have some work to do personally this season. So that’s kind of where my focus is. And then when I get back here, great. I love Houston, love the people, love my teammates, I had an incredible run.
“If not, I’ll tip my hat and thank you for an incredible journey.”
While Verlander had a strong showing individually in September, it was a far cry from his previous foray into free agency. Things are very different now. His name hardly spent any time in the headlines during the first months of the hot stove season. Perhaps that will start to change when this year’s winter meetings begin next week in Dallas. He’ll likely sign a one-year deal with a contender, but so far we’ve heard little beyond the expected dialogue between Verlander and his incumbent employer in Houston — a fairly standard protocol for any free agent in the early stages of the winter.
Verlander is hardly alone in his relative exclusion from such industry-wide discussions; Juan Soto has predictably dominated the discourse, with only a handful of other trades breaking through to interrupt the historic pursuit of the 26-year-old outfielder. But as a future Hall of Famer who firmly believes he still has something to offer Major League teams, Verlander’s free agency is undoubtedly one of this winter’s most fascinating subplots. And while Cooperstown will certainly come calling at some point, the end of his illustrious career has yet to be written.
Whether he stays in Houston or starts a new chapter elsewhere, Verlander will look to defy the age limits historically placed on his position. Since the turn of the century, only twelve pitchers at age 42 or older have remained in a major league rotation for most or all of the MLB season, and few of them have been particularly effective.
The iconic Hall of Fame Braves trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine all pitched the final seasons of their careers at age 42, with only Maddux making it through a full year healthy and none of them posting an above-average ERA. Randy Johnson made 33 starts in his age-42 season with the Yankees in 2006 and delivered three more solid campaigns after that, but none resembled that of a front-line arm. Roger Clemens, whose late-career excellence has been notoriously tarnished by his connection to performance-enhancing drugs, is the only example this century of true dominance at such an advanced age: he finished third in the AL Cy Young voting as a 42-year-old . old in 2005 and then pitched well for two seasons.
In addition to these legends, a quartet of lefties stuck around and started games into their 40s: David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer and, most recently, Rich Hill, none of whom delivered above-average run prevention after turning 42. The same could have been said about knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and RA Dickey, and their rare skills made them clear outliers. Finally, there’s Bartolo Colon, whose 2016 All-Star campaign with the Mets was perhaps the best non-Clemens 42-plus season among these 12 weapons, but who then fell off as a major in his final two years . league starter (6.13 ERA).
These examples of largely ineffective older pitchers demonstrate the challenge that awaits Verlander. After his stellar Cy Young season at age 39, it seemed reasonable to expect him to continue pitching into his mid-40s, and he frequently spoke of his intention to do so. The past year may have put a damper on those ambitions, but it’s too early to say the dream is completely dead. Although Verlander has little left to prove, he remains determined that he has more to offer. Three hundred wins may be a tall order (he’s now at 262), but he’s just 84 strikeouts away from becoming the 10th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,500 Ks. And of course, there are always more championships to chase.
If his health cooperates – a big prerequisite – he may be able to continue his strong performance through 2024 and make the necessary adjustments to become a reliable rotation option again. His Cy Young-caliber days may be behind him, but many teams would happily pay for the version of Verlander we saw in 2023. Whichever team that ends up being, the contract will certainly be a fraction of what Verlander received two winters. past. But regardless of his salary or which jersey he wears, Verlander’s 2025 will be one of the most intriguing campaigns to watch – to see if he defies his age again or succumbs to the same struggles as his 42-year-old predecessors.
