According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Debby could form Saturday afternoon after the storm turns to the west and the storm’s timeline is pushed back about a day.
A timetable has been set for when the eye of what is now known as Tropical Depression Four will impact Florida this weekend and early next week.
On Saturday, the NHC issued a hurricane warning for part of Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have already been issued for parts of Florida’s southern and southwestern coasts, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for most counties in the state.
Here are the latest forecasts for when Tropical Depression Four could hit Florida.
On Friday, meteorologists expected Tropical Depression Four to pass close to the Florida Gulf Coast and move north, with landfall expected sometime between Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.
On Friday evening, Tropical Depression 4 shifted its track slightly to the west, passing along the southern coast of Cuba, instead of moving straight through the island and the Straits of Florida.
The deviation from its expected path will likely give Tropical Depression Four more time to strengthen before making landfall. However, the NHC is not currently indicating that the storm will develop into a hurricane.
The eye of what will likely become Tropical Storm Debby is expected to make landfall sometime between Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: 8am Saturday
At 8 a.m. Saturday morning, Tropical Depression Four was 170 miles south of Key West, moving toward the west-northwest at about 16 mph. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were still around 30 mph. Sustained winds must reach 39 mph before it can become a named storm.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: 2:00 PM Saturday
Tropical Depression Four is located near the northern tip of Cuba, near Havana, and is moving north-northwestward toward the Straits of Florida. This depression is a body of water between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba.
This is where the depression is expected to strengthen. According to AccuWeather, water temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to high 80s, which would encourage the system’s development.
AccuWeather also notes that wind shear in the area, which could play a role in disrupting the system’s formation, is light. The moisture in the surrounding area will also help strengthen the storm.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: Rest of Saturday
The latest NHC advisory does not provide information about the rest of Saturday, but does predict that Tropical Storm Debby will form sometime between Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.
Unlike Friday, the storm is now expected to veer west of the Florida Keys and continue west-northwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: Sunday 02:00 AM
By early Sunday morning, NHC is forecasting that Tropical Depression Four will strengthen and become Tropical Storm Debby. It will move slightly further north as it prepares to begin its hook toward the northeast. This will happen much further from the west coast of Florida than expected on Friday, making it less likely that Tropical Depression Four will make landfall on the Florida peninsula quickly before the hook.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: Sunday 2:00 p.m.
Tropical Storm Debby will be farthest from the Florida coast by Sunday afternoon, just southwest of Sarasota and slightly southwest of Clearwater, Tampa and St. Petersburg. That’s when the storm is expected to turn northeast as it begins to make its way toward a possible landfall along Florida’s Big Bend coast.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: Monday 2:00 AM
Early Monday morning, the eye of Tropical Storm Debby is expected to be just off the coast of Big Bend, Florida. The storm could then make landfall somewhere between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown, where a hurricane warning is currently in effect.
Tropical Depression Four Timeline: 2:00 PM Monday
Tropical Storm Debby will pass east of Tallahassee Monday afternoon as it moves toward the southeastern tip of Georgia. It will cross the Georgia-Florida state line and exit Florida Tuesday morning.
Could Tropical Storm Debby Become a Hurricane?
Although it is not currently expected to develop into a hurricane, the possibility is not completely out of the question. If Tropical Depression Four remains offshore, it could quickly intensify and become a strong tropical storm or hurricane.
“It is possible that if the feature bumps along the west coast of the Florida peninsula and interacts with land, the strengthening could be limited,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “A quick landfall on the southwestern portion of the Florida peninsula would limit the time spent over the Gulf and the strengthening process.
The storm’s new path leads to DaSilva’s second scenario.
“However, if the phenomenon remains offshore and moves along the upper Gulf Coast of Florida through Sunday evening or overnight, it could quickly intensify and become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before moving inland across northern Florida,” DaSilva warned.
Stormtracker: Tropical Depression Four Spaghetti Models
This article originally appeared in the Pensacola News Journal: When Will Tropical Depression Four Become Debby and Make Landfall?
