Don’t expect a clear winner Tuesday night in California’s 13th Congressional District, home to what is expected to be one of the closest elections for the House of Representatives in 2024.
Former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, had 51.5% of the vote and Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, had 48.5%, with an estimated 38% of votes counted as of 8:48 p.m. Tuesday, when the first results started coming in.
The 2024 rematch between Duarte, a farmer and businessman turned congressman, and Gray could help determine which party controls the House of Representatives in 2025.
Their 2022 election was one of the closest in the country, giving Republicans a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Duarte was declared the winner several weeks after Election Day, with the freshman prevailing by about four-tenths of a percentage point.
It may take that long again to determine who wins this round.
The 13th District includes all of Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Nonpartisan election analysts rated the race as a toss-up.
It is one of more than a dozen congressional districts across the country held by Republican members of Congress, where President Joe Biden would have defeated former President Donald Trump in 2020 had current legal boundaries been in place. The boundaries were redrawn to reflect the 2020 census. Voters in the new 13th would have chosen Biden in 2020 by 11 points.
It is a district with a Latino majority voting age and a large population of young people. Compared to the rest of California, this district tends to have low turnout, meaning older, white, more conservative voters disproportionately influence elections here. Yet general presidential elections typically have the highest turnout.
Gray, 47, served Merced in the California State Assembly for a decade before leaving his seat for the 2022 congressional bid.
Freshman Duarte, 58, serves on the House of Representatives committees on agriculture, natural resources, transportation and infrastructure.
