Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains what the polls looked like in 2020 and whether they could look like that again this time. Plus, senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson sits down for a one-on-one interview with Kamala Harris.
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In 2020, the polls were off. Will they be again in 2024?
By Steve Kornacki
Four years ago, opinion polls pointed to a relatively easy victory for Joe Biden. For example, on this day in 2020, he led Donald Trump nationally by 7.9 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average and had advantages in all swing states, where some surveys even showed double-digit advantages for Biden.
Biden, of course, won the election, but by a smaller vote margin (4.5 points) and an extremely narrow margin in the Electoral College, where a total of about 43,000 votes in three states separated him 269-269. tie that would most likely have led to a Trump victory in the House of Representatives.
The race looks much tighter this time around, with Kamala Harris just two points ahead of Trump in our current national polling average and with the results in all seven battleground states within two points. It could be that the race is as close as these numbers indicate and that polls this year more accurately reflect the state of play.
But the possibility of another election miss is up in the air. If there is a repeat of 2020 (and 2016) and the full extent of Trump’s support is missed again, he will be on his way to a decisive victory. And if it’s Democratic support that’s somehow being underestimated this time around, it’s Harris who is in great form right now.
Why Trump’s support has been underestimated in the past is a matter of debate. But where it was missed is clear: states with large populations of white voters without four-year college degrees:
Wisconsin, where the polls are most off, has the highest concentration of white residents without a college degree of any state. Michigan has the second highest. This was also a major reason why the national polls did not go well.
Will it happen again? Here’s what the education gap among white voters looks like on average in current polls, compared to what happened in 2020:
As you can see, Trump’s margin among non-college-educated white voters was ultimately higher than the polls suggested. But his current lead of 27 points is almost equal to the 2020 result.
In some ways, this supports the idea that the polls are now largely capturing Trump’s support among white voters without a college degree. Then again, given how tight the polls are, it wouldn’t have to be that far off this time to make a big difference.
From Harris’s point of view, part of the hope now is that the polls are underestimating her support for what have long been key Democratic constituencies: black, Hispanic and young voters. Here’s how these groups are breaking now, compared to what played out in 2020:
The concern for Harris, of course, is that her Hispanic support is much lower than Biden’s, both in the 2020 polls and in the final election results. But much of Trump’s new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who did not participate at high levels in previous elections. If these voters remain on the sidelines in this election, Harris could do much better with Hispanics than the polls currently indicate. It’s also somewhat encouraging to her that Biden performed better among black voters in the election than polls showed. Harris will have to let this happen again.
Harris also hopes her support among women in the post-Dobbs environment is deeper than polls indicate. While current polls show her with an 11-point lead over women, Biden had an 18-point lead in the 2020 polls and finished with a 15-point lead in the actual election.
Gender polling has risen dramatically in this campaign, with some surveys showing historically large gender gaps, while others are relatively modest. It amounts to an average of 11 points for Harris among women, but many polls show a much larger advantage for her. If these polls are correct, it could mean that Harris will perform much stronger on November 5 than the polls now suggest.
Harris says her team is “of course” prepared if Trump declares victory before the votes are counted
By Alex Seitz-Wald
In an interview with NBC News’ Hallie Jackson on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris said she is preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could declare victory before votes are counted in next month’s election.
Sitting in her official residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., Harris said her campaign is prepared for the possibility that Trump could try to subvert the election, but she is focused on defeating him first.
“We will deal with election night and the days afterward as they come, and we have the resources, the expertise and the focus on that,” she said.
Harris was pressed about the possibility that Trump could try to declare victory before votes are counted and a winner is predicted by news networks and other media outlets. She said she was concerned.
“This is an individual, Donald Trump, who tried to overturn the free and fair election, who continues to deny the will of the people who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol, and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, some of whom were. killed. This is a serious matter,” Harris said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, where Trump supporters tried to prevent the recognition of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.
Read more →
Democrats are bracing for a possible crack in the blue wall
By Natasha Korecki, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba
The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania paved the way to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.
But with just a fortnight until the November 5 election, there is concern within Kamala Harris’ campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have focused on the possibility of an anomaly occurring this year where only part of the blue wall breaks. The talks focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin will fall to Donald Trump while the other two states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris were to secure Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without another battleground state or possibly two to win.
Also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign thought was one of its best insurance options could also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris if Trump were to win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina remains in the campaign’s crosshairs and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less optimistic about victory, said four people with knowledge of the dynamics.
Read more →
🗞️Today’s top stories
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🗳️ View voice: Election officials are taking increasingly drastic measures to ensure the safety of poll workers and voters, from donning body armor to placing snipers on rooftops and deploying drones for surveillance. Read more →
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🍦 Don’t stop for an ice cream: Amid heightened security concerns and growing staffing issues within the Secret Service, Harris and Trump have been forced to curtail smaller events, such as drop-ins at diners or ice cream parlors. Read more →
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🤠 Deep in the heart: Harris will travel Friday to Texas, which her campaign called “ground zero of extreme Trump abortion bans.” Read more →
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☑️ Silver State showdown: Republicans see an opening with Latino voters in Nevada, but Democrats tout the benefits of consistent Spanish-language reporting and an active ground game. Read more →
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🎓 Back on campus? Harris plans to spend election night in Washington, D.C., with her campaign eyeing her alma mater, Howard University, as a possible venue for her to speak, according to seven people familiar with the planning. Read more →
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🎙️ The boys are back in town: Trump will appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast in his latest attempt to appeal to young male voters. Read more →
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🎸Born to Run: Bruce Springsteen will perform at Harris campaign rallies in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Read more →
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🗽 Empire mood: After New York helped give Republicans the House of Representatives in 2022, both parties see the path to the majority again this time running through the blue state. Read more →
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📕 Book Club: Usha Vance was almost constantly present at the side of her husband, JD Vance, often with a book in hand. Her extensive reading list offers a glimpse into the life of someone who was otherwise a silent presence in the campaign. Read more →
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For now, that all comes from the Political Bureau. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
