Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team on the campaign, the White House, and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray analyzes the polls 50 days before Election Day, plus how Donald Trump is ignoring unity in his response to the apparent second assassination attempt on his behalf.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every workday.
Where the 2024 race stands with 50 days to go
By Mark Murray
With just 50 days to go until the 2024 presidential election, Democrats are in a stronger position than they have been all year, thanks to their rotation of candidates. But the race remains tight.
That’s the main takeaway from a series of polls conducted after the (probably only) debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump and before Sunday’s suspected assassination attempt on Trump.
The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll shows Harris leading 51% to 47% among registered voters (which is within the poll’s margin of error) and 52% to 46% among likely voters (just outside the margin of error). One to 2% said they would support a different choice in that head-to-head.
Harris also holds a slight lead nationally after the debate, according to polls from Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos.
The Democrats’ improved position is also clearly visible in the swing states, where Harris has put the Sun Belt back into play for the Democrats, while Pennsylvania is still essentially a stepping stone.
What’s more, Iowa is closer than it’s ever been, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Trump ahead by just 4 points in the Hawkeye State among likely voters. A word of caution, though: We’ve also seen previous Des Moines Register polls (in 2016 and 2020) that showed Democrats looking stronger in September and October before ultimately hitting bottom.
Despite the Democrats’ stronger position, there are still warning signs for Harris. One example is the ABC News/Ipsos poll, which shows her trailing Trump on the economy and cost of living.
There’s also a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted ahead of the debate that found more voters believe Trump represents change than Harris.
And then there’s the memory of the polls that missed in 2016 and 2020. A shift of just 1 or 2 points in Trump’s direction could wipe out Harris’s gains. (Of course, it’s also possible that a poll that misses could swing the other way, to the benefit of Harris and her party.)
That’s why this presidential race remains tight and uncertain. Even the slightest shift in the numbers can change the perception of who’s ahead and who’s behind.
Trump renounces unity, blames Democrats after apparent second assassination attempt
By Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon and Katherine Doyle
Former President Donald Trump and his allies are adding fuel to the fire after his Secret Service unit foiled an attempted assassination in less than 10 weeks, as the FBI calls it.
In a message posted to multiple social media sites Monday, Trump accused his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden of “taking politics in our country to a whole new level of hate.” He said their rhetoric was responsible for threats and violence against him, even though they routinely condemn political violence and did so on Sunday.
Billionaire Elon Musk, a Trump ally, wondered in a tweet why “no one is even trying to kill Biden or Harris” — a message Musk later said was a joke and then deleted.
But by Monday afternoon, it was clear that Trump and his think tank had no intention of backing down from the heated rhetoric. In moving so quickly to Biden and Harris, Trump skipped over appeals for sympathy and even a cursory call for calm or unity.
There are signs of division within his ranks over this approach. Some of Trump’s allies believe the campaign squandered a chance for unity after the first assassination attempt. Instead, Trump ramped up his anti-Harris rhetoric, coinciding with his decline in the polls over the summer.
From Mar-a-Lago, where House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was among the guests, Trump took calls from friends expressing relief, listened in when acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe called Johnson for a briefing on the incident and cracked jokes about golf, according to people familiar with his activities. The anxiety is unlikely to disrupt Trump’s schedule or campaign plans, according to an adviser who has spoken to him since Sunday’s incident.
While his campaign’s top advisers focused on his safety — and that of his aides — in a message sent to staff Sunday night, his fundraising team urged donors to give in the immediate aftermath of the incident. On Monday, he reiterated a claim he made in last week’s debate that Biden and Harris were responsible for him being targeted.
“Their rhetoric is getting me shot,” he said in an interview with Fox News Digital, “when I’m the one who’s going to save the country, and they’re the ones who are destroying the country — from within.”
Read more →
Follow live updates on the apparent assassination attempt →
🗞️ Today’s top stories
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback — likes or dislikes — please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
And if you are a fan, share it with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
