Joe Biden’s disastrous performance during the debate with Donald Trump has led to speculation about whether he could be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee — and if so, who would run against Trump.
Biden won the Democratic primaries earlier this year, but did not officially become the party’s presidential nominee until he was endorsed at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which takes place August 19-22.
There is no formal mechanism to replace him as the presumptive nominee. It would be the first time an American political party has attempted to do so in modern times.
In effect, Biden would have to agree to step aside and let the delegates he won in the primaries — who vote to nominate a candidate at the convention in Chicago — choose someone else.
There is no legal requirement for delegates to vote for the person who wins the primary, but they are asked to vote in a manner that “fairly reflects the feelings of those who elected them.”
If Biden were to step aside, he could try to nominate someone else — most likely his Vice President Kamala Harris — as his preferred candidate. That would have some influence on the delegates, but would not be binding.
The most drastic course of action Biden could take — resigning from the presidency — would make Harris president. But that would not automatically make her the 2024 Democratic nominee.
If a candidate were to be chosen at the convention in Chicago, it would turn what is usually a highly choreographed event, in which a party presents its nominee to the public over several days, into a much more volatile open or contested convention—a rarity in modern American politics. Some 700 party insiders, who may not be united, would have the choice to choose a new candidate. They would then have just three months to unite behind them and campaign for them before the November election.
There is no clear frontrunner, but here are some possible options:
Kamala Harris
The most obvious choice would be Biden’s vice president. She has been widely criticized for failing to build out her own role in the Biden administration and has poor approval ratings in the polls, suggesting she would struggle against Donald Trump in the spotlight of a campaign. The 59-year-old endorsed Biden after the debate but may be the easiest candidate for the party to install as a replacement. Moreover, if Biden were to step down now, Harris would automatically become president.
Gavin Newsom
The 56-year-old California governor took to the spin room Thursday night to blast all alternatives to Biden as the nominee, saying it was “nonsense speculation.” He had a prime-time debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last year in what could be a presidential matchup of the future, and has made a point of supporting Democrats in elections outside his home state, at times looking like a shadow campaign for the White House.
JB Pritzker
The 59-year-old governor of Illinois would be one of the wealthiest possible choices. He has credentials to show, namely that he established abortion rights in Illinois and declared it a “sanctuary state” for women seeking abortions. He has also been strong on gun control and legalized recreational marijuana.
Gretchen Whitmer
The Michigan governor, 52, was on Biden’s shortlist for VP in 2020, and a strong midterm showing for the Democratic Party was partly attributed to her governorship. She has championed stricter gun laws, repealing abortion bans and supporting universal preschool.
Sherrod Brown
The 71-year-old would be the oldest of the alternative choices, but is still seven years younger than Trump. It was seen as a surprise that he was not running for the 2020 Democratic nomination, when he said that staying on as Ohio senator was “the best place for me to fight that fight” on behalf of working people. A strong voice on labor rights and protections, he has also spoken out in defense of IVF and abortion.
Dean Phillips
He ran in the Democratic primary earlier this year and had some party support, but failed to appeal to the broader party. He didn’t win a single race, so he’s unlikely to be a factor if Biden leaves office.
