The hardest part of trying to gauge the potential impact of the first presidential debate is trying to figure out which candidate needs it more. A month ago, the answer was obvious: President Joe Biden. His team wouldn’t have pushed for an earlier debate if it hadn’t concluded it needed to do something to shake up this race before the fall.
But one conviction in 34 counts later and it is now not nearly as clear which candidate needs this debate more. Why is that important? Because the less a debate matters to a candidate at that moment, the more risk-averse the candidate will become in the debate itself.
Based on my conversations with smart people on both sides of the aisle, both campaigns feel quietly confident about their positions heading into the summer and into this debate. That wasn’t the case in Biden world a month ago. The small but noticeable shift toward Biden in several polls has given his campaign the first evidence that former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles could be hurting his vote share. Add to that recent positive data showing a decline in violent crime nationwide and this buoyant economy, and you can see why Team Biden is as optimistic today about winning reelection as they have been in more than a year.
But just as Biden has grown stronger, so has Trump. Although he has taken a very small (and potentially significant) hit in the polls following his conviction, his massive fundraising over the past month has allowed him to level the spending playing field with Biden much sooner than the campaign expected. The cash windfall since the conviction is nothing short of staggering.
Structurally, you could argue that Trump is in a stronger position overall in his campaign today than he was at this point in June 2020 (he was consistently behind Biden in the polls) and in June 2016 (remember, he struggled to get the Republican Party to unite around him, and Ted Cruz was still trying to force a second vote at the convention). So compared to the last two cycles, Trump is stronger in the polls, has more unified the party around him, and has raised more money than he even thought possible.
And there’s another factor that could be at play that could make this debate less consequential than the hype suggests: Another debate is planned.
In many conventional campaigns, the early debates are often more fun and less controversial than the later encounters. There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest one is that power not in play here: not wanting to make a bad first impression.
And maybe even that issue plays a bit of a role for both Biden and Trump. Both have stereotypes that their campaigns would like to see debunked with this first debate. For someone in his early eighties, Biden must demonstrate mastery of the issues and reasonable strength. Trump needs to show that he is not as unhinged as he may appear at his rallies, and that he is not as focused on himself as it seems he has been since losing the 2020 election.
For both candidates, engaging in an eye-popping, expletive-filled shouting match would undermine their ability to correct either perception.
Of course, both camps would like nothing more than for the post-debate conversation to focus on the other candidate. Team Trump would like nothing more than for Biden’s age to become the dominant conversation, while Team Biden would like nothing more than for Trump’s erratic behavior to take center stage after the debate.
I’m not being completely naive here: the debate could turn into an experience similar to the first showdown between Biden and Trump, as one of the candidates feels he is losing and has to desperately entice the other candidate to make a one-for-all. to show an atmosphere of perceived weakness. to see. But if Biden wants to lure Trump, Trump has to take the bait (and maybe he’s just undisciplined enough to take it). But the risk for Biden is that he will become more concerned about Trump and less concerned about voters if he harasses him legally.
And Trump has already seen the downside of his overly petty and bullying attitude in the debate against Biden during the last election.
So while both campaigns would love nothing more than for this debate to expose the other candidate’s key weaknesses, it takes a skilled debater to make that happen. And neither candidate has demonstrated that kind of dexterity in the recent past.
Ironically, the best debates of Biden’s professional career all came in 2007 and 2008. And while that stellar debate performance meant nothing to him in the polls, as many in the media actually polled (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were actually polled separately), it caught the attention of his future running mate and gave the Obama team confidence that he could be a worthy campaign partner.
It is clear that the tone and tenor of this debate are in the hands of the candidates, more so than the moderators. If each candidate chooses to bait his opponent and make him expose his worst version of himself, the debate could turn into an affair that turns off many voters and might even turn them a little Robert. F. Kennedy Jr.-Curious.
But I’m betting on a slightly more subdued case (at least subdued for Trump). Remember, both campaigns think they are on a winning path, and that matters when trying to figure out how desperately a candidate enters a debate.
Realistically, both candidates are in a position where they have more to lose than to gain in this first debate, and since this isn’t the last planned In this debate, I’m betting on both candidates’ attempt to show the best versions of themselves, because the risk of being too negative and mean this far into the fall is too great.
But then again, it’s Trump – so there’s a non-zero chance of Captain Chaos showing up.
(And if you know who Captain Chaos is, the words “Cannonball, Cannonball, Cannonball” are probably ringing in your head. And if that’s the case, then you’re welcome!)
Microphone drop
One of the Biden campaign’s key stipulations in the debate negotiations was that a sponsor be willing to cut off the microphones if a candidate went over their allotted speaking time. Given the chaos of the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020, it’s understandable why Biden in particular would want an enforcement mechanism like this.
But as frustrated as Biden clearly was on that stage with Trump in 2020, he ultimately “won” that first debate in the eyes of voters because Trump’s behavior was so obnoxious. I’m not sure why the Biden campaign would want to help Trump look more disciplined and normal in front of a large national TV audience. Because if the Biden camp gets its way and Trump is forced to abide by time limits and decides he can’t be heard when the microphones are off, he’ll present himself as a more reasonable version of himself.
The Biden campaign is trying to portray Trump as unhinged, yet it insists that CNN ensure Trump doesn’t come across that way with his call to turn off the microphones.
Personally, I think one of the biggest mistakes the mainstream media made after the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021 was to try to deplatform Trump, whether through mainstream social media or mainstream legacy media. It sent Trump into his own media ecosystem, which he has since built into a far more powerful propaganda tool than anything he had four years ago. Trump’s antics always wear thin over time, but if you’re wondering why so many people have stockpiled his first-term madness, it’s because he was rhetorically forced into exile in alternate corners of the information ecosystem.
There are two ways to deal with Trump: give him more rhetorical rope or try to abolish him. Canceling him hasn’t worked, so maybe trust the audience more and let them decide if this is what they want. As I argued last week, I am convinced that Trump’s behavior and chaotic leadership during Covid have sealed his fate for voters.
But if he had been edited or if he had been prevented from showing his worst instincts in front of the largest number of eyeballs, voters might not have voted him down. Bottom line: trust that people will find out; don’t treat them like 5 year old children.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
