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A survey of 119 investors found that 53% thought Donald Trump would beat Kamala Harris.
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According to the survey, fossil fuel investors and industrial companies should do well under Trump.
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Stanley Druckenmiller said in mid-October that markets were “very confident” of a Republican victory.
Many of the major financial players have taken their sides, but Wall Street seems to believe one candidate has the upper hand in this year’s presidential election.
Betting markets are tilting toward former President Donald Trump, and billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said financial markets had already priced in a Trump victory. A note from London-based Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau said European shares were already trading at a discount due to the potential impact of tariffs.
In a survey of SumZero’s investment community — a mix of small hedge funds, family offices, private equity firms and more — conducted in the first two weeks of October, 53% said they believed Trump would prevail. The survey included responses from just 119 members, but comes from a segment of analysts and investors who influence significant amounts of money. The consensus among respondents was that a Trump victory would create a favorable environment for companies in the fossil fuel, financial services and US industrial sectors.
Meanwhile, most respondents said “renewable energy, ESG investing and retail” could struggle. SumZero — founded by Divya Narendra, who founded Facebook’s predecessor with the Winklevoss twins in college — has more than 16,000 investors on its platform sharing investment ideas, according to its website.
This Trump faith is not limited to fans of the former president.
Ken Griffin, the founder of billionaire Citadel and major donor to the Republican Party, has been critical of the former president, calling him a “triple loser” in 2022. But last week he predicted at a conference in Saudi Arabia that Trump would defeat Vice President Kamala. Harris, even if it’s close.
“It’s a race that Trump wants to win, but it’s almost a coin toss,” Griffin said at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh.
Prediction markets, which have exploded this year as online gambling grows in the US, are certainly leaning towards Trump, and Druckenmiller said in mid-October that markets were “very confident” of a Republican victory.
But Wall Street has certainly been wrong before. Few mainstream investors and bankers backed Trump in his first attempt when he unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. This time he has major billionaire supporters like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a win wouldn’t faze the investment community. monitor again. For example, one of the most accurate economists in the world, Christophe Barraud, is putting his credibility on the line if Trump wins.
